Enough time has passed that the wound in my soul has scarred over and been replaced by unmitigated rage. The only way to eliminate that rage is of course uncompromising and entirely too detailed analysis of niche situations in football with little to no credibility. This one's long, and it includes hastily drawn diagrams, plus some delightful pictures of birds.
Reckless Speculation presents:
The Case to End Prevent Defense…
Or Why all NFL coaches are cowards and should be replaced by Odds Machines
Or How to lose a Football Game.
The Premise
In a completely original and not at all cherry picked scenario: Your Team (Let’s call them the Ruffalo Rills) is up 35-28, a mere 30 seconds remain on the play clock, it’s win or go home time. You’ve trained for this, but the question remains: what to do?
Accurate Depiction of Sideline Play-calling Discussions
Option 1: The Squib Kick
The fuck is a squib? I’m glad you asked! A squib is a small firecracker or a short satirical writing or speech. Much like a failed firecracker which merely fizzles, in football the squib kick is:
A short, low, line drive kickoff that usually bounces around on the ground before it can be picked up by a member of the receiving team.
But Why? Aren’t Kicks supposed to go in the air?
The Goal:
- Keep the Ball in Play: Returning the Ball Takes Longer than a Touchback
- Bouncing Takes Longer: Force time off the Clock
- Squib keeps the collision pt of special teams in the opponents territory: Prevent the big return.
Clock Management Kids, it’s what’s for dinner.
OH FUCK
Your squib kick failed.
Either by miscommunication on the sidelines, a freak incidence of wind, or by the sheer incompetence of your players the ball has sailed out of bounds.
No Time off the Clock. Now what?
Option 2: Prevent Defense (ew)
Prevent Defense accepts two basic principles: Time is more valuable than Yards, and chunk plays hurt more than short ones.
But what is it?
Five or more defensive backs (or players in that role), preference for fast players over large bodies. The defensive unit backs up far enough to concede short yardage plates, inviting stick and short crossing routes but tries to keep the offense in front of them at all times. By maintaining leverage and discipline, no receiver is uncovered or able to get downfield/behind the defense.
In terms of strategic alignment, the Prevent Defense is the absolutist version of bend don’t break.
Sounds good in theory doesn’t it.
What’s the Problem?
Your Premise is Flawed and so is your Philosophy
Our initial assumptions for Prevent Defense contain its demise: An offense that can practice clock management effectively and uses creativity in play-calling can score WITHOUT executing the long pass that Prevent Defense seeks to prevent. (i.e. any modern offense in the nfl)
But I mean, that’s manageable right? Why not try it?
- The Necessary use of speed-first backs creates size mismatches against elite TEs and physical pass-catching Running Backs
- You are literally letting up a completion with no guarantee of what happens next (sometimes people fall down)
- Ignores any and all previous defensive success that has presumably kept you in the lead at this point
Conclusion: Prevent Defense should only be used to run down the clock when up by more than one score against an offense that has shown an unwillingness to take short yardage plays or play with any creativity, or at any time against the jets.
Safeties extra high, LB in deep coverage, CB has outside leverage, and a DE in low zone
John Madden once said, "All a prevent defense does is prevent you from winning." (google it bitches)
Me, watching coaches call Prevent Defense in meaningful games
But why does it continue?
NFL Coaches, by design and natural selection, are fucking cowards
The Owners lack any real measure or evaluation of a team’s success other than win-loss records. This is because they are stupid. Given the most unpredictable statistic in the NFL is the result of the 1 score game, when the situation occurs, NFL coaches are incentivized NOT TO LOSE rather than TRY TO WIN.
So what do you do instead, if you’re so smart?
First some brief math:
1/4 < 3/4
In late game, short clock situations, the offense WILL pass the ball. When the offense and defense both KNOW a pass is called, there are 4 possible outcomes (cliche but true). Only one of them is good for the offense:
- Completed Pass (good for offense)
- Incomplete Pass (Bad for offense)
- Interception (Very bad for offense)
- A Sack (Potentially very bad for offense)
But Reckless_Speculation, you say, isn’t that just trite and pithy? Surely its more likely to complete a pass than the other 3, and even if it is incomplete, don’t we just get another down.
Sure. But why INVITE the only good option. Perhaps you’d like to contest the pass. Maybe even keep it from being a good idea in the first place. My (completely unqualified) advice:
Option 3: Call What Works… or Dance with the one that brought you
You have 30 seconds left, which means you’ve been playing football as a team for the past 59:30, presumably with nearly half of that on defense. You know how your opponent’s offense works, you’ve seen what defensive formations have been effective. You’ve also had at least a week to prepare for this game, you got tape on these guys.
So Go CRAZY:
- Call Tampa 3, Tampa 2, Nickel (if you’d like some speed)
- Play as much speed and physicality as possible without running yourself off the field
- Keep your best unit on the field whenever possible
And for the love of all that is holy, if you STILL decide to call Prevent…
ONLY RUSH THREE
