Linggo, Pebrero 28, 2021

Repost: 32 Days / 32 Teams: Atlanta Falcons

Team: Atlanta Falcons

Division: NFC South

Record: 4-12 (1-5 Division) (4th in NFC South)

Introduction

Hello everyone, and welcome to the Falcons' 32 Teams/32 Days post. I'm u/Pink_Skink on Reddit and ForeignFalcon23 on the NFL Draft's Discord channel; I'm pretty sure I'm also the first Colombian, French, and possibly German writer of a 32/32 post. I've been following the Falcons for over 20 years now, and I'm finally starting to be more active when it comes to season analysis, draft preparations, etc. In fact, I'm actively helping our Falcons GM in the r/NFL_Draft sim of off-season activities.

I understand most 32/32 posts talk about the past season in-depth, but given that we have a new regime starting in Atlanta, and also considering how disappointing our 2020 season was, I decided to focus in what's to come, rather than what has been.

With all that said, let's get to the actual Falcons review.

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2020 Season Statistics

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Category League Rank
Total Points Scored 16th
Total Points Allowed 19th
Overall PFF Grade 18th
Offensive PFF Grade 17th
Defensive PFF Grade 22nd
Special Teams PFF Grade 24th

If you're not a Falcons fan, you may be surprised to see the team ranking pretty much around the average in most categories; especially considering we finished with the 3rd worst record in the league. This helps show that the Falcons were actually a better team than their record suggests, though they still were a very disappointing and underachieving team all year long.

First, let me say that I don't think it's fair to be mad at Mr. Blank (team owner) for being patient with Quinn and the, at best, questionable coaching staff he insisted on keeping year after year, but it seemed very obvious to anyone paying attention that nothing was going to change coach-wise in 2020. It may not be a popular opinion among Falcons fans, but I honestly think we've only had 3 decent coordinators during Matt Ryan's career: Kyle Shanahan (OC), Jeff Ulbrich (DC) and Keith Armstrong (ST). This lack of capable coaches has led to a lot of promising draft picks never reaching their full potential and strategic mismatches in a lot of games. Because of the horrible coaches our franchise has had in the past 10+ years, the Falcons as a team have relied on elite performances by a small amount of players in order to achieve success. Not only was 2020 not different in this regard, but it also was one of the most obvious examples of the lack of coaching we've endured for a while now.

From the get-go, Dirk Koetter was unimpressive and unimaginative. As in many years before, the offense had to rely on fantastic performances by players like Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley in order to score points. However, differently to other years in the past, Ryan and Co. had to do it all with no running game, inconsistent O-line play and possibly the worst Falcons defense in the past 15 years; and that's saying a lot! This, plus the classic DQ time- and timeout-management mishaps, led the team to begin the season 0-5. Finally, after so much underachievement, so much bad coaching, so much patience by Mr. Blank, Dan Quinn was fired. Personally, this was the highlight of the year; since I had wanted DQ gone since 2017. However, this meant that Raheem Morris, the Interim Coach, would push the roster to the limit, trying to prove he was worthy of being considered the next HC, which also meant the team would probably start winning meaningless games, falling further down in the draft order with each win.

Luckily for us though, not even this could keep the team from finishing with the 4th overall pick, a brand-new regime that includes a new GM and new coaches. So, even if it was an, as of late, typically disappointing season for the Falcons, this year it came with positive changes and actual hope for better results in the future.

Speaking of those changes, let's talk about the new regime.

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Falcons New Staff

Terry Fontenot, General Manager

Fontenot joins the Falcons after spending 17 years in different positions within the New Orleans Saints organization. In 2013, Fontenot was promoted to director of pro scouting. In 2020, Fontenot was once again promoted to assistant general manager and vice president of pro personnel. Since this is his first time as a GM, it's very hard to speculate as to what his general strategy will be to get us under the salary cap, as well as what his drafting strategy will be. He's been very careful with the answers he's giving to the media so far, but he also has made a couple of statements that hint towards some interesting decisions in the coming months:

  1. He's talked about bringing competition to all positions. He believes competition is the best way to put the best players on the field.
  2. He believes you address needs during Free Agency and using the draft to take the best players available
  3. He's talked a lot about building a team for the future. He knows the salary cap situation can be somewhat solved by restructuring some of the biggest contracts, but he also doesn't want to cripple the team's flexibility in future years by doing so.

What I take away from this very general comments is that both him and our new HC want to build the best team possible through competition. He also doesn't think there are untouchable players in the roster, and he's open to all possibilities with our 4th overall pick; even mentioning the possibility of trading up to get the right guy.

Arthur Smith, Head Coach

Most famous in the media for being FedEx CEO's son and the coach who revived the careers of Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry, Arthur Smith joins our team after being the Titans OC for the past 2 years. Smith joined the Titans in 2011 and has experience coaching the O-line, TEs and the offense overall, while surviving multiple HC changes. More than anything, he brings a breath of fresh air and some actual playbook strategy to a team that has had as much creativity as the current Simpsons writing staff. He, too, has been rather discrete with his comments so far, but there are a couple of things we can highlight from what he's said:

  1. Despite what a lot of fans and media members seem to believe, he's not going to copy-paste TEN's offense in Atlanta. He understands that he doesn't have the same players, and he's more than willing to build the offense around the talent we have. So, no, don't just mock Najee Harris to the Falcons and expect us to run the same plays he ran last year.
  2. He has the very-much desired "CEO-type mindset" most team owners have been looking for. Besides the obvious relationship with his father, Smith has shown a willingness to build a coaching staff that fits what he wants to build, while at the same time looking for traits that make up for his weaknesses. For example, he mentioned wanting to bring an experienced coach like Dean Pees to help him handle the unknowns of a first-year HC.
  3. This may not come as a surprise, but the former offensive lineman and offensive line coach believes in building a team through D-line and O-line depth.

If we look at what's been said so far, we can expect Smith and his staff to build a strong, tough team through competition. He'll also implement an offense that plays to its strengths.

Dean Pees, Defensive Coordinator

Pees became our DC after un-retiring for the second time in 3 years. He's a coach that makes a lot of sense for a couple of reasons:

  1. He's worked in the same staff as Smith.
  2. He aligns with Smith's philosophy of building a game plan according to the team's strengths and the opponents' style
  3. He's a flexible coach who has experience with 3-4 and 4-3 fronts, and with marrying coverage with pass-rush.

Pees has been more vocal and direct with the media when it comes to talking about his vision for the future. We can expect of him to build a defense capable of blitzing often and from everywhere, use a lot of disguise on coverage and be multiple up front and simple on the back-end. This identity makes sense when you look at the things he did in Tennessee and Baltimore.

On top of these 3 main additions, Smith has also hired other interesting coaches who should bring creativity and (hopefully) better results in the years to come. Some of these coaches are:

  • Dave Ragone, Offensive Coordinator
  • Frank Bush, Linebackers Coach
  • Marquice Williams, Special teams Coordinator

Now that we've talked about the new regime, let's take a look at what the roster looks like right now.

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Falcons Current Roster

List of all current players:

Quarterbacks

Running backs

Wide receivers

Tight ends

Offensive linemen

Defensive linemen

Linebackers

Defensive backs

Special teams

Reserve lists

Unrestricted FAs

Restricted FAs

Exclusive-Rights FAs

Something that might be easy to notice after giving this list a look, is the lack of depth at a lot of positions. For example, we currently have only 1 TE under contract, only 5 O-linemen and only 4 DBs. This is even more worrisome when you realize the team is expected to be around $20 million over the cap. So, not only do we not have enough players on our roster, but we also have very little ways of acquiring any new ones. With that being said, let's take a look at our salary cap situation next.

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Falcons Salary Cap

As of this morning, the Falcons are $20,283,889 over the expected salary cap. This means that Terry Fontenot's going to have to work very hard in the next few months in order to clean up the mess left behind by Thomas Dimitroff. The somewhat good news is that, after going through our roster, I've found reliable ways that can help us get to a place where, not only can we sign the rookies we draft this year, but we can also add one or two extra pieces via Free Agency to help our roster's depth.

Here are the moves I'd make in order to get the Falcons to a healthier cap situation:

Cuts

  • James Carpenter, G: After being the weakest link on our offensive line for the past 2 years, it's time for Carpenter to go. Cutting him with a post-June 1 designation saves us $5,233,125.
  • Tyeler Davidson, DT: Another unimpressive FA signing, Davidson is an obvious cutting candidate. Cutting him after June 1st saves us $3,450,000. We can only designate 2 players per year, and Davidson makes the most sense out of the 3 players to at least be considered as a player for the new regime.
  • Dante Fowler Jr., DE: You may be able to see a pattern here: a lot of our cap issues have been caused by bad FA signings by the previous regime. It's understandable that TD made some desperation moves last year in order to try and keep his job, but it has definitely left us in a very awkward position. As for Fowler himself, he was the worst graded starter in our team, and while we'd still have to eat a $10 million hit in dead cap, cutting him makes a lot of sense. Cutting him with a post-June 1 designation saves us $7,875,000 and allows our new front office to move on from one of the ugliest FA signings Dimitroff had.

This is pretty much as far as the team can go. In fact, it's possible even Fowler doesn't get cut. There needs to be a balance between salary cap and roster depth, which is why I think we won't be seeing any other cuts.

Restructures

With the cuts mentioned above, the team would still be $3,725,764 over the cap, which means there's still work to be done. Restructuring contracts is a dangerous game, since you're only pushing the problem to future years. With that being said, this strategy is what mickey Loomis has employed in New Orleans for a while, and while they are in literally the worst situation now, they managed to stay competitive for a number of years thanks to this.

In my opinion, our 5 most expensive players (Ryan, Julio, Grady, Deion and Matthews) are all candidates for a restructure. That being said, if you consider what Fontenot has said so far, he will not cripple our future just so we can be in a better situation now. Therefore, I believe only Grady Jarrett, Deion Jones and Jake Matthews should get a restructure; since I can see them being a big part of our team in ears to come. I will not go into detail regarding each contract, but this moves should aliveate an extra $15-$20 million in cap space. Enough to sign our rookies and the necessary veterans to get us to a 53-man roster.

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RFAs and ERFAs

Restricted Free Agents and Exclusive Rights Free Agents are another interesting piece of the puzzle. I expect us to be smart with these, since we can make some good moves that add depth at very fair prices:

RFAs

  • Matt Gono, G/T: Gono has been with the Falcons the past 2 years, and he adds depth to our offensive line. He could even push for the starting LG spot. For all these reasons it makes sense to bring him back by placing a 2nd-round tender on him.

ERFAs

  • Younghoe Koo, K: Our star kicker needs to come back to Atlanta. He was immediately named by HC Smith as a player he's excited to have. At $850,000 it makes absolute sense.
  • Jacob Tuoti-Mariner, DE: The hope is that he can give better results with a new coaching staff. In any case, even as a depth move, bringing him back makes sense.
  • Jaeden Graham, TE: Again, not the most exciting player out there, but he brings depth at a very low price.

Free Agent Signings

So, hopefully, by this point you've seen a way in which the Falcons can handle their cap situation. Under this scenario, we will indeed have enough space to sign a couple of interesting guys, without being able to make any splashes. Here are some of the free agents I'd love to see us sign:

  • Gareon Conley, CB: A former 1st round pick who hasn't panned out yet, Conley gives us much needed depth at CB with the potential to grow into a capable starter. (Estimated $3M/year contract)
  • Nickell Robey-Coleman, Slot CB: Differently from Conley, NRC is a proven veteran who's great at what he does. He'd be a welcome veteran presence in a very young secondary. (Estimated $2M/year contract)
  • Matt Skura, C: A versatile player who can compete for either the C or LG positions while adding depth in general. (Estimated $2M/year contract)
  • Lane Taylor, G: A very solid started until he got injured, Atlanta could hire him on a 1 year prove-me deal and hopefully see him start at LG. (Estimated $3M/year contract)
  • Malik Hooker, S: One of my favorite safety prospects in the past few years, Hooker had to play in a system that doesn't fit him while also struggling to stay on the field due to injuries. This could be an interesting experiment to see if what made him a 1st round pick is still there. (Estimated $3M/year contract)

Again, I don't expect the Falcons to be very active in FA, and I doubt we'll be able to sign this many players, but this are just some potential signings expecting we sign 2 or 3 "cheaper" players.

Now, let's move to the last, and best, part of the off-season: the draft.

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2021 NFL Draft

Falcons picks

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Round Pick
1 4
2 35
3 68
4 99
5 132
6 163

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So, without compensatory picks, the Falcons currently have 6 picks. Not a lot, considering we need to fill our roster. However, having such a disappointing year finally pays off, since we have high picks in every early round. Knowing this, and having gone through the rest of the off-season process, here's a list of moves I'd like us to do with the 4th overall pick, followed by a 7 (6) round mock draft for the Falcons:

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My favorite moves with the 4th overall pick:

  1. Trade down: This draft has 4 superb QB prospects who will be sought after by any team needing a QB; this puts us in a good position to be a potential trading partner with a QB-needy team, especially if either the Jets or the Dolphins don't trade down or pick a QB themselves. Trading down is the ideal scenario for me, because it gives us a lot more picks to fill our roster with talent, while also moving us to a much more comfortable position to draft one of the top defensive prospects this year. If you want to see a scenario where we trade down, I invite you to check my first 2021 draft, where I have us trading with the 49ers. Also, here's a list of trading partners for our 4th pick: Eagles, Panthers, Broncos, 49ers, Patriots, Redskins.
  2. Draft BPA: If we go by my draft board, there's a very good chance one of the top prospects this year will be there at 4. My top prospects, in order, are: Penei Sewell, Kyle Pitts, Justin Fields, Ja'Marr Chase, Zach Wilson. None of these positions are positions of need for us, but if we follow Fontenot's and Smith's philosophy of having competition at every position, any of these picks makes sense for us. I know I have 2 listed here, but I'll go more in depth about the QBs in my next scenario.
  3. Draft our future franchise QB: I'm not a fan of doing this. Not only because I fully believe Ryan can stay our franchise QB for, at least, 3 more years, but also because we need talent at other positions if we want to go back to being a winning team anytime soon. Yes, Fields is an awesome prospect and a local talent. Yes, Wilson just had an amazing season. Yes, Lance can sit and learn from Ryan while he continues to develop. But none of these options give us Ws right now. And, while we hopefully won't be in a position to draft this high anytime soon, there are other ways of landing a QB.
  4. Trading up: I'm only listing this option because Fontenot mentioned it recently; however, if there is one specific prospect (my guess would be Fields) that we absolutely want to have, then it would make sense to trade with either the Jets or the Dolphins to secure him. This is less than ideal since we'd lose even more picks, but a possibility nonetheless.

7 Round Mock Draft (without trades):

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Pick Player, Position Comments
1.04 Penei Sewell, T Yes, we already have 2 tackles, but McGary has not been the player we hoped he'd be. He still can develop, especially with a new staff, so bringing competition, blue chip talent, and depth makes sense. The coaches will figure out how to set our top 5 players for the year.
2.35 Carlos Basham Jr., EDGE There's a number of players who'll probably be available here. In any case, here's where the Falcons should start focusing on defense. Basham had 2 great years before having a down year in 2020. If Pees and co. manage to develop him, he'd be a monster in our multiple front defense.
3.68 Thomas Graham Jr., CB Another defensive pick that makes a lot of sense. Graham sat out in 2020 but showed during the Senior Bowl week that he hasn't lost a step. While not physically gifted, he's capable of covering all kinds of receivers and routes.
4.99 Tyree Gillespie, S One of my favorite prospects, Gillespie is an amazing value here who can replace Neal at safety. A hard hitter that excels in the box while showing that he's more than capable of covering TEs.
5.132 Trey Sermon, RB Yes, we have a huge need at RB. But I just can't justify picking one before day 3. Sermon gives our offense a versatile weapon capable of creating plays by himself.
6.163 Malik Herring, EDGE Another talented lineman to add depth to our defensive line. He's shown flashes of being productive but needs to put it all together.

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While obviously very hard to do, this 7 round mock at least shows that the Falcons can finish the 3-day event with 5 starters at key positions. Positions I see us adding as UDFAs are: RB, LB, CB and WR. So now that we've gone through the off-season activities, let's move into the 2021 season.

Falcons 2021 Season Opponents

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HOME AWAY
Philadelphia Eagles New York Giants
Washington Football Team Dallas Cowboys
New England Patriots Miami Dolphins
New York Jets Buffalo Bills
Detroit Lions San Francisco 49ers
Carolina Panthers Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints New Orleans Saints

*The 17th opponent is TBD

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Falcons 2021 Top 5 Players

  1. Matt Ryan, QB: Ryan has consistently been one of the best QBs in the league. And this despite him not having a decent OC nor solid O-line play for most of his career. Expect Ryan to return to his more productive years thanks to Smith's offense. He'll still have great weapons to throw the ball to while, hopefully, having a better defense that can keep the team in every game.
  2. Grady Jarrett, DT: One of only two cornerstones in an otherwise lackluster defense, Grady continues to prove year after year that he's one of the best interior pass rushers in the league. Pees should have a great time scheming up ways to let him rush on every down.
  3. Calvin Ridley, WR: Ridley outplayed our future HoF WR last year, though it was mostly due to injuries. This year, I expect him to take the next step forward and become our WR1.
  4. Julio Jones, WR: Julio is moving towards the end of his career, and that's OK. While still an athletic freak and nightmare to opposing defenses, his durability is tarting to be a problem. He'll still contribute and continue to put monster numbers, but I expect him to take a more specialized role this year.
  5. Deion Jones, LB: One of the best cover LBs in the league since his rookie year, Deion adds athleticism, experience and versatility to a defense in much need of talent. Just like with Jarrett, Pees should be able to find ways to turn Jones into an invaluable asset in our defense.

2021 Season Results: 9-8 (4-2 Division) 2nd in NFC South

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Final Thoughts

To tie everything together now, I think the 2021 season will (somewhat obviously) mark a new beginning for our franchise. The Falcons will finally go back to being a competitive team that can win any given Sunday, thanks mostly to an efficient and productive offense and an aggressive and opportunistic defense. That being said, with all the positive changes coming our way, there are still a lot of issues to resolve, and that takes more than one season. Expect the Falcons to continue to add talent at all positions in 2022, with the possibility of Julio retiring. If things go well, we may have another window in 2022/2023 to win our first Super Bowl with Matt Ryan, the best player in franchise history, under center.

Thanks to u/ehhhhhhhhhhmacarena for the opportunity to write this post, and I'll try to be as connected as possible in order to answer any questions you may have.



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