Carolina Panthers
Division: NFC South
2020: 5-11, 3rd Place
Coaching Changes
Head coach Matt Rhule returns for his second season with his core coaching staff intact, including DC Phil Snow, OC Joe Brady and Special Teams Coordinator Chase Blackburn. Joe Brady did interview for several head coaching positions, but he did not come away with an offer, so he will be back for at least one more season in Carolina.
Though it is not a coaching change per se, two-time general manager Marty Hurney’s contract was not renewed, and he has since moved on to Washington. After an extensive search for a new GM, owner David Tepper ultimately hired “his guy” in Scott Fitterer, former Vice President of Football Operations for the Seattle Seahawks.
Fitterer represents a drastic philosophical shift in how to run an NFL team, coming from a fairly conservative approach from former GMs Hurney and Gettleman. Whereas the previous regimes rarely traded down in the draft, Fitterer and his front office were extremely active, trading down four times to acquire more draft picks. This volume approach to drafting has been lauded by the NFL analytics community, and more closely aligns with Tepper’s background as a hedge fund manager.
Additionally, extenuating pandemic-related salary cap circumstances aside, Fitterer has made it clear he will seek to avoid restructuring contracts and tacking on void years to kick the proverbial can down the road. With the Panthers entering a second consecutive season with over $40 million in dead money, that is certainly welcome news.
Hired:
Sean Ryan – Quarterbacks Coach
- Replaces Jake Peetz, now OC at LSU
- Coached Matt Stafford and Deshaun Watson
- Hire Grade: A
Sean Ryan’s track record is stellar, with both Stafford and Watson performing admirably under his tutelage. He will be crucial in getting the most out of Sam Darnold after the young QB’s rocky start to his career.
Tony Sparano Jr. – Assistant Offensive Line Coach
- Replaces Marcus Satterfield, now OC at South Carolina
- Worked with OL coach Pat Meyer at Buffalo
- Hire Grade: C
Assistant offensive line coaches typically do not move the needle much in terms of their tangible impact to the team. Sparano is no different. Offensive Line coach Pat Meyer does not exactly have the greatest resume given the relatively poor performance of the Panthers’ line last year and bringing in an assistant who brings more of the same to the table is not likely to be an improvement.
Fired:
Mike Phair – Defensive Line Coach
- Replaced by Frank Okam, promoted from Assistant DL Coach
- Fire Grade: B
The defensive line struggled in 2020, in large part due to Kawaan Short being injured for most of the season, but Phair did little to help the situation. The Panthers were middle-of-the-road last year in sacks and pressure rate, despite a significant investment in the defensive line. Okam gives the Panthers a chance to develop their very young defensive linemen without having to drastically change the scheme they are already familiar with.
Free Agency
Players lost/cut
| Player | Position | New team |
|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | QB | Broncos |
| Curtis Samuel | WR | Washington |
| Kawann Short | IDL | Free Agent |
| Russell Okung | LT | Free Agent |
| Tre Boston | S | Free Agent |
| Mike Davis | RB | Falcons |
| Tahir Whitehead | LB | Free Agent |
| Chris Reed | LG | Colts |
| Pharoh Cooper | WR | Jaguars |
| Rasul Douglas | CB | Raiders |
| Chris Manhertz | TE | Jaguars |
| Efe Obada | EDGE | Bills |
| Corn Elder | CB | Lions |
All told the Panthers lost 7 starters, not including guys like Mike Davis who started 12 games for an injured Christian McCaffrey, Pharoh Cooper who served as the team’s primary punt returner, or Corn Elder who was the primary nickel corner.
KK Short missed nearly the entire 2020 season so I’m not counting him as a starer either, although his release is significant as he was a stalwart on the interior of the Panters’ defensive line for nearly a decade, and he was one of the last remaining players still on the roster from the 2015 squad that went to the Super Bowl.
Chris Manhertz was the primary blocking tight end who played nearly 50% of the offensive snaps last year. Efe Obada was a fan favorite player hailing from the UK, who rotated in on the defensive line on the inside and the outside, with an almost 40% snap count.
The Good:
Teddy Bridgewater showed he was not a franchise QB in 2020. He threw a paltry 15 passing touchdowns and never was able to step up with the game on the line. He did play better prior to getting injured in week 10, but that does not excuse his propensity to check the ball down, even on 4th and long. Whether or not Darold will be an upgrade remains to be seen, but it’s fair to say Teddy was not going to lead the Panthers to a Super Bowl win, and it was time to move on.
Sometimes difficult decisions must be made, and good players are not re-signed. Curtis Samuel had a breakout season last year, but his $11.5 million per year price tag would have made him the highest paid Panthers wide receiver despite him being WR3 on the depth chart. With DJ Moore’s contract extension looming, letting Samuel walk was a wise decision.
Cutting KK Short was inevitable given his injury history and large cap hit. Even though he was a franchise cornerstone-type player, his release was a relative no-brainer for the front office.
Tre Boston was a liability in coverage last year and at 29 years old he does not fit into the Panthers’ long-term plans. Likewise, Tahir Whitehead had a similarly poor season, and he is on the wrong side of 30.
Chris Reed, Pharoh Cooper, Rasul Douglas, Chris Manhertz, Corn Elder and Efe Obada (sorry Panthers fans) are all JAGs and are easily replaceable. I’d throw Mike Davis in this category as well, even though he played quite well for the Panthers last year, because paying a 28-year-old backup running back anything more than the veteran minimum is poor roster construction.
The Bad:
At the time of writing Russell Okung is still a free agent. When he was healthy last year, he played at a high level, and he is far and away better than any of the other options the Panthers have at left tackle. The only reason I could perhaps give the front office a pass is his injury history. In the past two seasons he has missed 19 games, which is concerning for a guy who will be turning 34 this year.
The Ugly:
There was no James Bradberry type player the Panthers parted ways with this year. Good job Panthers!
Players signed
| Player | Position | Old Team | Length | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Moton | T | CAR | 5 | $85,000,000 |
| Pat Elflein | G | NYJ | 3 | $13,500,000 |
| Cameron Erving | T | DAL | 2 | $10,000,000 |
| Morgan Fox | DE | LAR | 2 | $8,100,000 |
| Haason Reddick | OLB | ARI | 1 | $8,000,000 |
| A.J. Bouye | CB | DEN | 2 | $7,000,000 |
| Dan Arnold | TE | ARI | 2 | $6,000,000 |
| Denzel Perryman | ILB | LAC | 2 | $6,000,000 |
| David Moore | WR | SEA | 2 | $4,750,000 |
| DaQuan Jones | DT | TEN | 1 | $4,050,000 |
| John Miller | G | CAR | 1 | $1,127,500 |
| Frankie Luvu | LB | NYJ | 1 | $1,100,000 |
| Julian Stanford | OLB | CAR | 1 | $1,075,000 |
| Rashaan Melvin | CB | JAC | 1 | $1,075,000 |
| Delano Hill | S | SEA | 1 | $990,000 |
The Panthers were active in free agency before the draft, making a flurry of short-term signings, none more important than franchise tagging RT Taylor Moton. The goal here was ostensibly to plug holes in the roster to allow the team to draft the best player available. However, re-signing Moton notwithstanding, these are generally not players with a long-term future with the Carolina Panthers.
Speaking of Moton, after franchise tagging him, the Panthers were able to come to an agreement hours before the deadline on a 4-year extension, making him one of the highest paid tackles in the league (left or right). This was a crucial move for the front office, as Moton is far and away the best player on the offensive line.
The Panthers also signed a pair of guards, including re-signing incumbent RG John Miller. Miller was serviceable last year, which is more that can be said for the Panthers’ other FA guard signing, Pat Elflein. Fortunately, both players will have some competition this year from a trio of rookies and a couple of veterans.
Aside from the offensive line, one of the other weak areas for the Panthers in 2020 was the TEs. After Greg Olsen left, there was a massive drop-off in production from the position. Ian Thomas failed to step up in a meaningful way last year. Enter Dan Arnold, a former UDFA from a Division III school, who had his best season as a pro last year in Arizona. Arnold was 3rd on the team in receiving yards and touchdowns, despite only starting 5 games. He is no Travis Kelce, but he should help the team put up more points in the red zone. He can also help fill the void left by Curtis Samuel as the primary 3rd down target.
Speaking of Curtis Samuel, the Panthers also signed former Seahawk David Moore to play slot WR. Moore doesn’t have the same skillset as Samuel, but he is a reliable #3 WR and he signed for a heck of a lot less than Samuel got from Washington. Moore also gives the Panthers another option as a kick and punt returner.
Perhaps the splashiest free agent signing was EDGE Haason Reddick, fresh off a breakout year with the Cardinals in which he recorded a team high 12 sacks. Reddick is reunited with Matt Rhule from his days at Temple, who hopes to get the most out of Reddick as hybrid DE/OLB. His 1 year, $8 million deal could end up being an absolute bargain if he can have a similarly productive season as he did in 2020.
Also added to the newly revamped defensive line are DT DaQuan Jones and DE Morgan Fox. Jones is more of a 2 down, run stuffing DT; not the sexiest signing, nevertheless an important one for a defense that struggled to stop the run last year. Fox is an edge rusher with the ability to move inside, again nothing spectacular but a solid depth piece. Both players should give the young players in their position groups time to develop.
Continuing with the defensive front 7, Denzel Perryman was brought in to replace Tahir Whitehead at MLB. Considering Whitehead was a complete liability for the Panthers last year, this should be a major upgrade. On paper the LB corps is solid, albeit somewhat lacking in depth. Perryman is under contract for 2 years, although he can be cut with very little dead money in 2022.
Moving on to the secondary, the Panthers completely overhauled this unit, with only two returning starters coming back. A.J. Bouye is now a Panther, coming off a down year in Denver after a couple of elite seasons in Jacksonville. With the Panthers drafting Horn and Jackson returning, Bouye will be moving to the slot. The hope is this will allow the Panthers to play more man coverage on 3rd downs.
Draft
| Round | Number | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | Jaycee Horn | DB | South Carolina |
| 2 | 59 | Terrace Marshall Jr. | WR | LSU |
| 3 | 70 | Brady Christensen | OL | BYU |
| 3 | 83 | Tommy Tremble | TE | Notre Dame |
| 4 | 126 | Chuba Hubbard | RB | Oklahoma St. |
| 5 | 158 | Daviyon Nixon | DT | Iowa |
| 5 | 166 | Keith Taylor | DB | Washington |
| 6 | 193 | Deonte Brown | OL | Alabama |
| 6 | 204 | Shi Smith | WR | South Carolina |
| 6 | 222 | Thomas Fletcher | LS | Alabama |
| 7 | 232 | Phil Hoskins | DT | Kentucky |
Jaycee Horn
Grade: B
No draft pick will be more scrutinized for the Panthers than their first selection, opting to make Jaycee Horn the first defensive player drafted and passing over potential franchise QB Justin Fields. Full disclosure, I personally ranked Fields as QB2 in this draft class, and I felt the same as I did in 2017 when the Panthers passed over Deshaun Watson to draft Christian McCaffrey. Much like McCaffrey, Horn has the potential to be an All-Pro caliber player, but QB trumps everything in today’s NFL.
Horn fills an immediate need for a true shutdown corner, and his abilities in press man coverage will help tremendously in 3rd down situations where the Panthers’ defense is looking to get off the field. Horn is an immediate starter and a slam dunk pick, if you take Fields out of the equation.
Terrace Marshall Jr.
Grade: A+
The Panthers traded down twice in the second round and were locked in on Brady Christiansen before getting word the Saints were about to draft Terrace Marshall one pick later. They could not let him go to a division rival, so the Panthers pulled the trigger on Marshall and gambled that Christiansen would still be there in the 3rd.
Marshall fits the mold of a traditional X receiver, something that has been missing in Panthers’ offense ever since the decline of Kelvin Benjamin. He is reunited with Joe Brady after their time at LSU, a year in which he had an eye-popping 13 touchdowns despite playing alongside NFL WRs Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. He will likely start the year splitting time at WR3, but he should have an immediate impact in the red zone offense.
Brady Christensen
Grade: C
As mentioned before, Christiansen was originally going to be drafted in the 2nd round, but the Panthers ended up drafting Marshall first. Not wanting to risk losing out on him, the Panthers traded up in the 3rd round, giving up a 6th round pick in the process. During a behind the scenes video about the Panthers’ draft, it was revealed the Panthers had a 2nd round grade on Christiansen as a guard, and a 3rd round grade on him as a tackle.
Despite there being a massive hole at left tackle, and that being Christiansen’s position at BYU, the Panthers do not intend to play him there. Instead, they will give him a chance to compete at guard. On paper his skillset translates well to be a zone blocking guard, but whether he can transition successfully and how long it will take remains to be seen.
Tommy Tremble
Grade: B
Tremble was definitely a Matt Rhule pick, as he can be seen celebrating the selection in the aforementioned behind the scenes video. Tremble is more of a blocking tight end / fullback hybrid, but there is some hope he can develop into a solid pass catcher as well. In college he played alongside multiple talented TEs, so he was never asked to contribute much in the passing game. With his versatility, the Panthers can save a roster spot and not have a dedicated fullback.
Chuba Hubbard
Grade: A
Chuba Hubbard was famously the subject of a text from Matt Rhule’s wife, in which she told him he had better draft him after watching Hubbard torch Rhule’s Baylor squad in the past. Much like Brady Christiansen, the Panthers were prepared to draft Hubbard early in the 4th round, but they ended up trading down and still were able to draft him a few spots later.
Hubbard is the ideal complementary back to Christian McCaffrey – he is still a work in progress in pass protection, but he is a very solid outside zone runner, with excellent production his junior year of college. Hubbard could very easily ascend to RB2 on depth chart with a strong showing in camp.
Daviyon Nixon
Grade: B
Character concerns caused Nixon to fall to the 5th round, at which point the value was too good to pass up for the Panthers. Nixon has all the physical tools to be a dominant 3T DT, and interestingly enough a common player comp for him was none other than former Panther KK Short. With the addition of DaQuan Jones, Nixon will most likely have a “redshirt” year of sorts while he gets up to speed as an NFL player.
Keith Taylor
Grade: C
Taylor was one of many players Rhule coached in the Senior Bowl, and he played his college ball not far from Fitterer’s Seahawks at Washington. Much like the late round Seahawks corners of the Legion of Boom, Taylor has the prototypical size and length the Panthers desire in a prospect. He gives the Panthers another corner with the ability to play press man, which was a point of emphasis this offseason. Given his lack of college production, Taylor projects more as a developmental player, perhaps someone who could contribute on special teams.
Deonte Brown
Grade: B
Brown is another player who fell to the Panthers in the later rounds, presumably due to weight concerns, although there were some rumblings of character concerns as well. Brown had a standout career at Alabama as a dominant force in the run game. It is hard to see how he fits into the Panthers’ zone blocking scheme, although he could gain a good bit of agility if he is able to get his weight under control. Brown looks like a candidate for the practice squad at this point.
Shi Smith
Grade: C
Smith was another player Rhule coached at the Senior Bowl, where he had an impressive showing. Smith played outside at South Carolina, but due to his size he projects more as a slot receiver at the next level. He has some serious competition there with David Moore and possibly DJ Moore if Marshall plays outside. He is also a practice squad candidate, but he could sneak onto the roster as a punt returner.
Thomas Fletcher
Grade: D
Not going to do an extensive writeup here. He’s a long snapper. Coached by Rhule in the Senior Bowl. The Panthers already have an elite LS in Jansen -- practice squad bound.
Phil Hoskins
Grade: C
Hoskins is the 4th defensive tackle the Panthers have drafted in two years. Unlike Dixon, he’s more of a run stuffer, which puts him solidly behind Brown, Jones and Roy. He is another player that is most likely practice squad bound.
Other Offseason News that Affected the Team
One year after an unceremonious split with Cam Newton, the Panthers were once again looking to move on from their starting QB. Owner David Tepper publicly stated the team would keep taking swings at finding a franchise QB, not exactly a ringing endorsement for Teddy Bridgewater. Towards the end of the 2020 season, Matt Rhule also publicly singled out Teddy for ad-libbing on some crucial 4th down calls and throwing the ball short of the sticks. Clearly a split was imminent.
The Panthers were rumored to be in pursuit of a number of quarterbacks, including Deshaun Watson before the allegations surfaced against him. After news broke of the blockbuster trade sending Matt Stafford to the Rams, it was revealed the Panthers had made a serious offer and Stafford was nearly sent to Charlotte instead of LA. This was confirmed by the front office, making things even more awkward between the team and Bridgewater.
Then, 3 weeks before the draft, the Panthers took the next swing and traded 3 draft picks to the Jets for QB Sam Darnold. Bridgewater’s time in Carolina was over, and the Panthers traded him to the Broncos for a 6th round pick the day before the draft, taking an extra $7 million of his salary in the process. After they passed on drafting a quarterback with the 8th overall pick, the Sam Darnold era has officially begun for the Panthers.
Projected Starting Lineup
- QB: Sam Darnold
- RB: Christian McCaffrey
- RB: Chuba Hubbard
- TE: Dan Arnold
- TE: Ian Thomas
- TE/FB: Tommy Tremble
- WR: DJ Moore
- WR: Robby Anderson
- WR: Terrace Marshall
- WR: David Moore
- LT: Cam Erving / Greg Little
- LG: Pat Elflein / Dennis Daley / Deonte Brown
- C: Matt Paradis
- RG: John Miller / Brady Christiansen
- RT: Taylor Moton
- DT: Derrick Brown
- DT: DaQuan Jones
- EDGE: Brian Burns
- EDGE: Haason Reddick
- MLB: Denzel Perryman
- OLB: Shaq Thompson
- OLB: Jermain Carter
- CB: Jaycee Horn
- CB: Donte Jackson
- CB: AJ Bouye
- S: Jeremy Chinn
- S: Juston Burris
- K: Joey Slye
- P: Joseph Charlton
- LS: Thomas Fletcher
- KR: Trenton Cannon
- PR: David Moore
Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses
Position groups:
• QB – It’s probably fair to call QB a weakness until Darnold can prove himself to be a franchise QB. The backups aren’t particularly impressive either, with former 3rd round pick Will Grier, who has seen extremely limited action, and former XFL star PJ Walker, who had a pretty shaky outing in a win over the Lions last year.
• Backfield – With a healthy Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers have one of the best running back groups in the NFL. Hubbard has yet to play an NFL snap, but the Panthers do have some solid but unspectacular options in Reggie Bonnafon, Rodney Smith, and Trenton Cannon.
• OL – PFF rated the Panthers 31st in the league in their preseason offensive line rankings, and although that is harsh, it is fair to say there are more question marks than proven commodities on the line this year. Things could change quickly if the Panthers decide to re-sign Russel Okung, but for now the o-line is definitely a weakness
• Pass catchers – Though the tight ends are not one of the better groups in the league, the Panthers do boast a deep WR corps, including a returning 1,000 yard duo in DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. This is group absolutely a strength, but if Marshall is as good as advertised and Joe Brady can get moderately good production out of the TEs, they have the potential to be elite.
• DL – Although this group features a lot of very young players, I would not call it a weakness. The starting front 4 is solid, with (literal) tons of upside behind them. Second year players Yetur Gross-Matos and Bravvion Roy should continue to develop alongside this year’s rookie selections.
• LB – With Perryman in the middle, the LB corps goes from a weakness to a moderate strength. He joins reliable veteran Shaq Thompson, and Jermaine Carter who played well down the stretch last year. Second year safety Jeremy Chinn is also in the mix, though he will be playing further away from the line of scrimmage in an effort to reduce the amount of hits he takes.
• Secondary – This is a tough call, but I’m going to call the secondary a weakness for now, although it could very well end up being a strength. By all accounts Horn looks the part and is expected to step in day one as CB1, but he faces a steep learning curve at one of the most difficult positions to play as a rookie. Donte Jackson has played well but has had a hard time staying healthy, and AJ Bouye has seen his play decline the past couple of years, not to mention he will be suspended for the first two games of the season.
• Special Teams – Again I’m going to call this a weakness for now, mostly due to kicker Joey Slye’s accuracy issues, and the relative lack of success in the return game. However, Rhule is a big believer in competition, and he has thrown a lot of bodies at virtually every position (he drafted a freaking long snapper). I do think it is reasonable to expect the special teams unit to improve from last season.
Schedule Predictions
I’m going to give somewhat of an optimistic prediction here, so please forgive the homer picks. But before we begin, I think it is important for context to talk about the Panthers’ 2020 season. Last year the Panthers finished 5-11 with a scoring differential of -52. That is in line with the 8-8 Raiders (-44) and the 7-9 Vikings (-45). The results against those two teams back that up, with the Panthers losing narrowly to each. Overall, the Panthers were 2-8 in one score games. That’s a large part of the decision to move on from Bridgewater: he just couldn’t put together a game winning drive.
I think it’s fair to say the Panthers overall have improved. I also think it’s fair to say the division has gotten worse, particularly the Saints after losing Drew Brees. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan, but Julio Jones is gone and they have possibly the worst running back group in the NFL. Both the Saints and the Falcons are in salary cap hell and have top-heavy rosters with poor depth behind their starters. Obviously the Bucs are still good, probably better than last year. With that said I predicted a sweep by the Bucs, and a split with the Saints and the Falcons, giving each team a win at home for simplicity’s sake. There are also some very bad teams on the schedule, with the Jets, Texans and Eagles being fairly safe wins. We’re at 5-4 so far.
Next I look for the surefire losses outside the division. A road game against the Bills is an automatic loss. Additionally, despite playing the Vikings close last year, I think they’re a much better team now and will likely beat the Panthers in Charlotte. That’s 5-6 for those of you keeping score at home.
The remaining games are as follows: @Cowboys, @Giants, vs Patriots, @Cardinals, vs Washington and @Miami. I think it’s totally possible to go 3-3 or 4-2 in these games. Out of this group, only the Cowboys and the Cardinals are truly settled at the QB position. The Patriots and WFT do have very formidable defenses, but the Panthers play them at home. The Giants could very well be 2-4 coming into week 7 and it’s not hard to imagine the wheels falling off. The Dolphins are a very solid team but they aren’t world beaters, and if Tua plays like he did last year they’re in trouble.
Ultimately I landed at 9-8, with the Panthers just narrowly missing the playoffs. Even if they do manage to squeak out an extra win or sneak in as a wildcard team, I don’t think the Panthers match up well against the top NFC teams to make a deep playoff run. The Bucs will own the division again, but I do think the Panthers could compete for 2nd place, however I think the more likely outcome is they finish around 3rd. I would put the range of win-loss totals for the season at something like 6-11 as the floor, and 10-7 as the ceiling. A winning record would be a huge success, and there’s a good chance the Panthers are still in playoff contention until the brutal stretch over the last 4 games.
| WK | DATE | OPPONENT | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun, Sep 12 | vs New York | W |
| 2 | Sun, Sep 19 | vs New Orleans | W |
| 3 | Thu, Sep 23 | @ Houston | W |
| 4 | Sun, Oct 3 | @ Dallas | L |
| 5 | Sun, Oct 10 | vs Philadelphia | W |
| 6 | Sun, Oct 17 | vs Minnesota | L |
| 7 | Sun, Oct 24 | @ New York | W |
| 8 | Sun, Oct 31 | @ Atlanta | L |
| 9 | Sun, Nov 7 | vs New England | W |
| 10 | Sun, Nov 14 | @ Arizona | L |
| 11 | Sun, Nov 21 | vs Washington | W |
| 12 | Sun, Nov 28 | @ Miami | W |
| 13 | BYE WEEK | BYE WEEK | |
| 14 | Sun, Dec 12 | vs Atlanta | W |
| 15 | Sun, Dec 19 | @ Buffalo | L |
| 16 | Sun, Dec 26 | vs Tampa Bay | L |
| 17 | Sun, Jan 2 | @ New Orleans | L |
| 18 | Sun, Jan 9 | @ Tampa Bay | L |
Training Camp Battles to watch
The entire offensive line outside of C and RT. Seriously.
LT: Not a lot of good options here, hopefully the Panthers kick the tires on re-signing Okung. Erving is… not ideal as the starting LT, and Greg Little has been a massive disappointment since the Panthers traded up to draft him in 2019. There are some other guys in the mix here like Daley and Scott, but neither of them are serious contenders. Rhule has publicly stated he values length at LT, which more or less rules out Brady Christiansen.
LG: Elflein was pretty bad last year. This is where the Panthers are praying someone flashes during camp, whether it’s a rookie or a returning depth player like Daley. Deonte Brown is the dark horse here, although he will have to lose some weight to have a shot at landing the starting job.
RG: John Miller was passable at RG last year, so in my mind it’s his job to lose. I have Christiansen as the primary challenger at RG, simply because he’s worked more on the right side so far. However, I’m sure he’s in the mix for both guard spots, and guys like Deonte Brown and David Moore are possibilities at both guard spots as well.
TE: Dan Arnold is being penciled in as the starting TE at the moment, although Ian Thomas is perhaps being overlooked despite being the only returning player at his position. In reality, all 3 TEs between Arnold, Thomas and Tremble bring something different to the table. It will be interesting to see if the Panthers carry a fullback on the roster, or if they use Tremble in that role and save a roster spot.
WR: This is certainly an interesting battle to watch for the position group as a whole. The Panthers drafted 2 WRs, signed another in free agency, and are bringing back two 1,000-yard receivers from last year. There is an awful lot of competition for the last remaining spot or two.
Offensive and Defensive Schemes
Offense
Joe Brady’s offense at its core aims to get the ball to players in space. The Panthers have an array of weapons with elite speed, like Robby Anderson to Christian McCaffrey, plus guys like DJ Moore and Terrace Marshall are no slouches either.
In his first year as a coordinator, Brady drew on his experience from the Saints and from his time at LSU. Many of the elements from his days as a college coordinator are present, but he has adapted his offense for the NFL, running more plays under center and mixing up his personnel groupings more.
Brady’s offense operated out of 11 personnel (1 TE, 1 RB, 3 WR) 57% of the time. He also mixed in some 2 back formations, which he would presumably do at a higher rate with a healthy Christian McCaffrey. He also called plays out of 01 personnel (1 TE, 4 WR) at the 3rd highest rate in the league, which again was presumably influenced by a) McCaffrey being injured and b) needing a TE as an extra blocker to help the struggling OL.
Brady’s innate understanding of pass concepts and beating coverages is what transformed LSU’s offense, helped lead Joe Burrow to a historic season winning a national championship and a Heisman, and ultimately landed Brady a job as an NFL offensive coordinator. He is able to get the most out of his wide receivers, as evidenced by DJ Moore, Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel’s strong seasons last year.
He has shown the ability to adapt his play calling to the strengths of his offensive playmakers, particularly the wide receivers. For example, last year he flipped the roles of DJ Moore and Robby Anderson, with Moore acting as the deep threat and Anderson running more shallow routes across the middle of the field. At first glance this might seem like a misuse of both players’ respective skillsets, but in practice it was effective. Moore finished the year with one of the highest yards per reception in the league, and Anderson used his speed to stretch the field horizontally, often giving Bridgewater a wide-open target to throw to.
Whether this was a function of Bridgewater’s inability to hit his receivers on deep passes or just part of Brady’s general offensive philosophy remains to be seen. Terrace Marshall adds an interesting element to the mix with his size/speed combo and large catch radius, as does Sam Darnold with his ability to throw the deep ball.
The biggest area of improvement for the Panthers’ offense coming into 2021 is their red zone efficiency, and it certainly seems like there are pieces in place to help in that regard. Even a modest uptick in red zone conversions will result in a lot more points scored and should translate to more wins.
Defense
The Panthers run a base 4-3 with the ability to pivot to an odd front. Schematically it wasn’t a drastic departure from Rivera’s defenses of years past, with a zone-heavy approach relying on the defensive line to generate pressure. Last year they blitzed 24% of the time, good for the 9th lowest rate in the NFL. The Panthers played primarily Cover 3, and they really struggled when they had to play man coverage.
Like Brady, defensive coordinator Phil Snow came from a college background, and he also implemented elements of his Baylor defense at the pro level. The Panthers were the only team in the league to line up in a 3-3-5 formation, albeit sparingly.
Snow’s unique 3 safety look allows him to drop into single high formations or cover 2 on the fly, without tipping opposing offenses off before the snap. This is where the Panthers benefit greatly from having a “positionless” player like Jeremy Chinn, who can play deep safety or linebacker equally well. Having the ability to rotate to odd fronts helps also, with guys like Derrick Brown who can play NT, DT or DE as needed.
This year the emphasis in the draft and free agency was to bring in DBs who could play more press man coverage. With Horn able to lock down an opposing #1 receiver and Jackson playing opposite from him, Snow should have more confidence to call more man coverage on 3rd down and get after the quarterback. When there’s not a 4th round rookie corner covering Antonio Brown 1-on-1, there tends to be a much higher defensive success rate.
Thank you /u/PlatypusOfDeath for organizing this series! And thanks to /u/Gascho for the non-fan writeup!
Apologies to /u/Cyberjag, who offered to help proofread my post but I did not submit it in time :(
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