When we talk about accolades for NBA players, there are always a few key items on the checklist: All-Star trips, All-NBA berths, MVPs, etc. But one rules them all: rings.
The mad quest for gold has led players on journeys all across the map. Are they trying to win out of a competitive spirit? To shut up critics and trolls? To earn glory that will last a lifetime? Obviously that has worked from time to time, but other times the effort feels a little empty -- even in success. Perhaps your team was TOO good (like Kevin Durant), or you weren't the MAIN star on the team, or your opponent got injured.
It's also fair to say that winning a ring isn't all that unusual. If my math checks out, a team wins a title every year. That makes 75 years of NBA champions -- 65 years of MVP (which started in 1956) -- 53 years of Finals MVP (which started in 1969). It's an exclusive club -- especially when you consider repeats -- but it's a growing one.
In contrast, there's a prestigious club that will grow more slowly. A basketball honor that we don't discuss very often. That is: being the greatest player in your franchise's history.
Perhaps the fact that we don't discuss that topic very often devalues the concept and contributes to a culture of team swapping and ring chasing. If we valued the Team GOAT as a badge of honor, perhaps players would stick around more often and build their legacy at home.
Of course, there's no easy way to define a Team GOAT. There's subjectivity involved in terms of what criteria you use and what accolades you value the most. Then again, when has subjectivity ever stopped us from debating player rankings before?
Interested in that topic, I wanted to go through the league and review each team's GOAT, and debate whether a current player has a chance of grabbing that mantle. An important note of distinction here: we're not talking about the best player to ever weigh a team's uniform -- we're rankings these players contributions on THAT team and that team only, as if their other years didn't exist.
Rather than give specific percentage odds for each, we'll group them into a few tiers. Locks or Near Locks (defined as over an 80% chance), Likely (somewhere in between 50-80% chance), Possible (somewhere in between 25-50%), Unlikely (5-25%), and Almost No Chance (less than 5%).
TEAM GOAT DISCUSSIONS
ATLANTA. For this exercise, we're going to lean heavily on total "win shares" with the team, which is conveniently listed on basketball-reference's team pages. Using that as our default ranking, two candidates emerge: Bob Pettit (136 win shares, mostly when the team was in St. Louis) and Dominque Wilkins (107 WS). Pettit may be harder to beat than young fans realize; he was an All-Star in each of his 11 seasons, and he won MVP twice. In fact, he cracked the top 5 in MVP voting on 8 separate occasions. Even more notably, he led the team to their only NBA championship. That's an incredible resume that's going to be tough for Trae Young to beat. Young can best Pettit in longevity and total points, but he's probably going to need to win multiple titles to get this more nuanced honor. We'll call this one unlikely. If the Hawks can reconfigure their roster and get back to contender status, then perhaps this ups back into "possible."
BOSTON. Like Trae Young, Jayson Tatum benefits from a "one-and-done" era where he can jump to the NBA and start putting up numbers immediately. He's in his 5th season right now and he's still only 23 years old. Averaging about 6.5-7 wins shares per year, he can potentially crack 100. That said, this isn't a franchise that's graded by win shares. They win titles. Whether you want to call their GOAT Bill Russell (164 WS, 11 titles, 5 MVPs) or Larry Bird (146 WS, 3 titles, 3 MVPs), there's almost no chance that Tatum rises to the top of this ladder.
BROOKLYN. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving surprised a lot of people when they chose to go to the Nets, a team without much of a storied history. Perhaps they were anticipating this post. After all, there's a wide open lane here. "Dr. J" Julius Erving led the Nets to two ABA titles, and Jason Kidd led the team to two NBA Finals, but neither stayed with the franchise long. Erving lasted 3 seasons, Kidd only 6.5. As a result, the team's leader in win shares is Buck Williams with 63. Going forward, the question will be: how long can Kevin Durant (age 33) last? How many titles can he rack up in the meantime? The longevity won't be on his side, but winning a couple of titles may be a realistic goal presuming this team can be healthy at the right time. Despite all the injury issues, they're still the Vegas favorite this season. Given that, Durant or James Harden may be possible Team GOATS. Then again, it's "possible" the team isn't healthy down the stretch and blows it up entirely this summer.
CHARLOTTE. Even if we include the old Charlotte Hornets' history here, this is another franchise with a relatively open lane to GOAT. In over 30+ years, they've never even reached the Conference Finals. Kemba Walker leads the way with 48.5 win shares, which is an attainable goal for young LaMelo Ball. Ball snagged 2.8 as a rookie, and is on pace to double that this season. If he can play 10 years with the franchise, he'll likely become their GOAT. Will he actually stay in Charlotte that long? It's TBD, so let's call this one possible as well.
CHICAGO. Super scorer Zach LaVine has proven a lot of skeptics wrong, but he'd need to clone himself a few times to come close to Michael Jordan (205 WS, 6 titles, 5 MVPS). Our scale only goes as low as almost no chance, and this certainly qualifies.
—-
CLEVELAND. The Cavs are in a similar boat here. Young studs Darius Garland and Evan Mobley both have awesome futures, but there’s a difference between awesome and immortal. Almost no chance they can surpass the iconic achievements of LeBron James here.
DALLAS. LaMelo Ball is chasing Kemba Walker in Charlotte, but Luka Doncic has a much higher bar here in Dirk Nowitzki. Thanks in part to his incredible longevity and loyalty, Nowitzki racked up 206 win shares with the team in addition to an MVP and NBA title. The win shares will be tough. Luka's career high is 8.8, so even if he gets to 10 a year, he'll need to rattle off 15+ years of peak performance. Going for multiple MVPs or multiple championships may be the easier path here. Can Luka win more than 1 of each? I wouldn't say that it's likely, but it's definitely possible. Dallas doesn't look like a title contender yet, but there's plenty of time for the kid (still age 22.)
DENVER. The international takeover continues. At the moment, the franchise leaders in win shares are Dan Issel (95) and Alex English (84). However, there's a Serbian freight train behind them that's about to run them off the road. Jokic has racked up an incredible 71 win shares in his career despite being only 26. He had 15.5 last season alone. Even if you think advanced stats are too kind to the Joker, he can make up for it with his MVP trophy, which neither Issel nor English have. As long as Jokic plays a few more seasons, he's a near lock to grab the GOAT status here.
DETROIT. After a slow start, # 1 pick Cade Cunningham is heating up and looking the part of a future All-Star. He also takes pride in his leadership abilities and may be the type of player to stick around for 10+ years. In terms of win shares, that may put him in play over franchise leader Bill Laimbeer (98 WS). In terms of legacy, he still will be unlikely to pass Isiah Thomas, who racked up 2 titles and 11 All-Star appearances. That's nothing against Cunningham -- it's just friggin' hard to win multiple championships.
GOLDEN STATE. It's hard to win multiple championships -- it's hard to be a Team GOAT. But at the moment, we have one player who has already done it. Steph Curry has recently passed over Wilt Chamberlain in total win shares for the team -- 117 to 114 (Chamberlain didn't play his entire career with them). Add in the fact that Curry won 2 MVPs and 3 titles and his overall impact on the game, and he could retire tomorrow as the greatest Warrior of all time. He's our first official lock.
HOUSTON. Perhaps Damian Lillard should take note, because James Harden essentially waved the white flag on his quest for Team GOAT with his trade demand last year. If he had stuck around, perhaps Harden (115 WS) could have challenged Hakeem Olajuwon (160) for the top spot. That said, matching Olajuwon and winning two titles would have been much more difficult. Looking forward, is there any chance Jalen Green or Alperen Sengun could threaten Olajuwon? Theoretically, sure, but realistically let's call this almost no chance.
INDIANA. Although he never got over the hump, Reggie Miller (174 WS) has a comfortable stranglehold on his team's GOAT. It's looking less and less likely -- almost no chance -- that a current team star like Domatas Sabonis could challenge him. Sabonis has made 2 All-Stars in his 5 years with the team, but his 30 win shares are a loooong way away from Miller. And according to some rumors, Sabonis may not be here much longer.
L.A. CLIPPERS. We have an opening, table 12. The Clippers have existed for over 50 seasons in some form or another, but they never won a title. Their best player ever is probably Chris Paul (team high 78 WS), but he only played 6 seasons with the franchise. Current stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George may have trouble matching that, but they have a decent shot to win a title if they both come back healthy next year. To Clippers fans, I'd presume that's more meaningful than CP3's good-but-not-great "Lob City" era. Let's call it possible.
L.A. LAKERS. LeBron James already won a title in L.A. and could potentially win more, but he has almost no chance to beat local legends like Kobe Bryant (team high 173 WS, 5 titles, 1 MVP) or Magic Johnson (156 WS, 5 titles, 3 MVPs.) Remember, we're only talking about their contributions on this particular team.
MEMPHIS. The Grizzlies don't have the type of history as the Lakers do, which puts this franchise in play. The best right now would probably be Marc Gasol (77 WS). But while Gasol had one DPOY, the rest of his resume is a little light for a Team GOAT -- he only made 3 All-Star teams and never finished higher than 8th in MVP voting. Given that, Ja Morant's ascension is certainly possible. Heck, he's on target to finish in the top 8 in MVP this season. If he stays healthy and sticks around Memphis for his whole career, he'll likely best Gasol in WS. Of course, the real key may be whether his squad can make a Finals appearance (the Grit n' Grind teams peaked in the Conference Finals.)
MIAMI. Prime LeBron James was the best player in franchise history, but in terms of career accomplishments it'd have to be Dwyane Wade (116 WS, 3 titles.) Jimmy Butler arrived too late to challenge that, and Bam Adebayo doesn't have the type of game that's going to put him in MVP races. I'd suggest there's almost no chance either can challenge Wade here.
MILWAUKEE. So far, we've given one Team GOAT to Steph Curry, and presumed Nikola Jokic is on the verge of cracking that in Denver. The same applies here to Giannis Antetokounmpo, whom I'll call another near lock. I don't think he officially has it yet though. Although Kareem Abdul-Jabbar only played 6 years for the franchise, he holds a lead over Giannis in win shares 115 to 81. Giannis should be able to pass him in a couple of years though and end all debates about Team GOAT status (again, career value, not prime value.)
MINNESOTA. The Timberwolves have never won a title or even made the Finals in their 33-year history, but Kevin Garnett still feels like he's locked into the top spot as a beloved Team GOAT. He racked up 140 win shares, 10 All-Star trips, and 1 MVP by the time he left for Boston. In theory, Karl-Anthony Towns may be able to challenge the win shares if he sticks around (he's about halfway there at 61 right now), but I don't know if he has enough of a two-way game to supplant Garnett in the minds of fans. A title would do it, but that's more unlikely than realistic.
NEW ORLEANS. If we count all versions dating back to 2002, then Chris Paul is going to grab his second Team GOAT here (as he leads the team with 76 win shares and came closest to winning MVP.) It's a beatable total, but can it be beaten by Zion Williamson or Brandon Ingram? If fully healthy, Williamson would have a great chance. He recorded 8.7 win shares in just 61 games last season. But can we expect Williamson to play 6-7 years at an elite level? And stay with this franchise for that whole time? That combo may be unlikely right now. Meanwhile, Ingram only has about 13 win shares in his 3 seasons, so I'm not sure he has enough upside to crack the top spot either.
N.Y. KNICKS. Right now, I'd give the nod to Patrick Ewing (team high 123 WS) despite the fact that he never won the title. Of the current crop, you'd presume a young player like R.J. Barrett may have the best chance if he improves and plays 10+ years with the team. Still, does he have it in him to beat Ewing and his 11 All-Star trips? It's between an "unlikely" and an almost no chance to me, so I'll lean to the latter.
OKLAHOMA CITY. If you include the Sonics history, then Gary Payton (124 WS) holds the lead over Kevin Durant (108 WS) and Russell Westbrook (97 WS). It's possible that young Shai Gilgeous-Alexander beats them in terms of longevity with the team, but there's almost no chance he can match their peak production and start winning MVPS. Keep grabbing those lottery balls, Sam Presti, because you may need another all-timer to get back to the Finals.
ORLANDO. Shaquille O'Neal only played 4 seasons with Orlando, so he trails Dwight Howard by a large margin in terms of win shares (88 to 48, respectively.) Younger fans may forget just how good Dwight Howard was in his day -- he cracked the top 5 in MVP voting in four separate seasons. I don't see any of the young Magic threatening that, so we'll give this one an almost no chance as well.
PHILADELPHIA. Julius Erving is probably the most iconic 76er of all time, but if we base it on resume alone it may be hard to argue against Dolph Schayes. Back when the team was the Syracuse Nationals, Schayes led them to an NBA title and made 11 All-Star teams in the process. He also leads Erving in total win shares, 142 to 106. Current star Joel Embiid has a long way to go to reach that company. Given his durability problems, he's only reached 36 win shares -- a total that doesn't even crack the team's top 12 yet. He can probably make an argument if he wins multiple MVPs or multiple titles, but that's an unlikely combination. Of course, if Daryl Morey can pull in a haul for Ben Simmons at the deadline then we may have to rethink that.
PHOENIX. Technically the team's leader in win shares is Shawn Marion with 93, but I'd say that either Steve Nash (83 WS) or Charles Barkley (44 WS) would be Team GOAT based on peak performance. I don't think there's much chance that Devin Booker is going to challenge for MVPs in the same way -- he's already in his 7th season and he's never cracked an All-NBA team yet. His advanced stats have never been great either, so he's only gotten up to 25.3 win shares so far. Still, it's possible that he can work his way into Team GOAT discussions in another way. The Suns haven't won a title in their 54-year history. If Booker can help make that happen -- and have a long, Reggie Miller-ish career -- then I think he'd be considered the franchise's GOAT.
PORTLAND. The inspiration for this post, Damian Lillard may have to sacrifice his chances to be Team GOAT if he never plays for the Trail Blazers again. In terms of peak performance, the best Blazer of all time is Bill Walton (who won the title and then MVP), but Walton only played 4 years for the franchise. In terms of career performance, Lillard is chasing Clyde Drexler. Drexler racked up 109 win shares (to Lillard's 95), 8 All-Star appearances (to Lillard's 6), and 2 Finals appearance (to Lillard's 0.) Where Lillard can make up for that deficit is longevity. Drexler left the team at age 32, while Lillard is still there (for now) at age 31. If he stays loyal and sticks around for 3-4 more years, he's likely to be considered their best ever.
SACRAMENTO. The "Sacramento Kings" don't have an illustrious history, but this franchise has been around the mill (first as the Rochester Royals, then Cincinnati Royals, then Kansas City Kings, then Sacramento Kings.) If we include all that history, there's almost no chance that De'Aaron Fox can surpass the individual greatness of Oscar Robertson (154 win shares.)
SAN ANTONIO. Ditto here. There are 5 San Antonio Spurs with 100+ win shares, led by Tim Duncan (206 WS) and David Robinson (179 WS.) When you factor in the titles to boot, then there's almost no chance that any of these young Spurs can reach those heights.
TORONTO. Kawhi Leonard was the face of the championship, but I suspect most Toronto fans would consider Kyle Lowry (75 win shares) their greatest player in whole. Lowry "only" played 9 years for the team, so it's possible that a young stud like Scottie Barnes can surpass that and surpass the win share total. Can he match Lowry's 6 All-Star trips and NBA title? That's somewhere between possible and unlikely. Barnes' all-around game doesn't lend itself to gaudy numbers and All-Star votes, but it's too hard to count out a rookie whose been this good.
UTAH. The Utah Jazz are good enough to contend for a title either this year or next. But even with that, I don't think anyone would consider Donovan Mitchell or Rudy Gobert on par with the freakish durability and longevity of Karl Malone (230 win shares) or John Stockton (208 WS). It'd probably take 2-3 titles for Gobert (third in franchise history with 82 WS) to take the mantle, and that falls into the almost no chance category.
WASHINGTON. Current star Bradley Beal has officially surpassed his old buddy John Wall on the win shares list (49 to 44), but he's still got some ways to go before he matches all-time leader Wes Unseld (110 WS.) Unseld also won an MVP and NBA trophy. The Beal Fan Club is formally petitioning for us to switch to "total points" though, because he's likely to catch franchise leader Elvin Hayes if he sticks around for next year (Hayes has 15,551, Beal 14,119.) Overall, it's hard to see the seeds of a title contending team here so we'll call this unlikely.
Walang komento:
Mag-post ng isang Komento