Martes, Hunyo 28, 2022

[OC] 99 Cent Store free agency: Point Guards

The NBA offseason is always filled with exciting storylines like star free agents and blockbuster trades. Or at least, rumors about blockbuster trades.

But rather than dwell on the obvious, this series intends to do the opposite: focus on the lower-profile free agents who may have some value to teams. No NBA player is actually "99 Cents," of course, but these are all players who may be bargains based on their perceived market. Most of the players mentioned will probably go in the $3-5M range in terms of salary. Some exceptions will be marked as "featured items" that may go in the higher $5-10M range. If a player is listed as a "clearance rack," then they may be on the fringes of NBA rosters and take minimum deals.

This "99 Cent Store" series has been open for business since 2018. In the past, we've highlighted names like Fred VanVleet (pre breakout), Joe Harris, Seth Curry, Reggie Bullock, Chris Boucher, and Christian Wood. Not all of the items turn out to be gems (is Nerlens Noel still not a DPOY candidate yet?), but the returns have been mostly positive so far. Let's see if we can keep that momentum going this season.


99 cent store

Jevon Carter, Milwaukee Bucks, UFA, 26 years old

Over the last two NBA Finals, we've seen the value of a great defensive guard. Two years ago, Milwaukee's Jrue Holiday helped frustrate Chris Paul and Devin Booker. In this past Finals, we saw two great perimeter defenders in Marcus Smart and Gary Payton II (an alum of the 99 Cent Store.)

Bucks' backup Jevon Carter hopes to follow Payton's template. While he's limited on offense (averaging 11-4-4 per 36), he hangs his hat on defense. Back at West Virginia (known as "Press Virginia" under defensive mastermind Bob Huggins), Carter won the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year award. Carter has shown flashes over being that bulldog on defense in the NBA as well, averaging 1.4 steals and 0.6 blocks per 36 minutes, and registering a positive BPM on that end (+0.5.)

Unfortunately for Carter, he hasn't had the opportunity to showcase that in reliable minutes. He's a specific player that needs a specific fit, and he hasn't found that yet. His initial stints with Memphis and Phoenix didn't yield much. He began this year with Brooklyn, but the Nets were too guard-heavy. He ended the year with Milwaukee, who already had a better version of him in Jrue Holiday.

To be fair, there are a few other things holding Carter back. While he's a good athlete, he's smaller than the other guards we mentioned (Holiday, Smart, Payton) at 6'1" with a 6'5" wingspan. That makes it more difficult for him to "switch" 1-3 as easily as the others can. He's also not enough of a playmaker to actually run the point.

Still, no one's signing Carter with the expectation that he'll be your point guard or that he'll compete for heavy minutes. Even calling him a poor man's Marcus Smart is too generous -- he's more like a poor man's Alex Caruso. He's best cast as a complementary option off the bench, a la Randy Brown (from the 90's Bulls.) Like Brown, he'd defend point guards and then blend in "off ball" on the offensive end. Carter should be able to do that some, given that he's a better shooter than you'd expect (38.3% from 3, 81.0% from FT in his career.)

potential fits

CHA. Charlotte could use better defenders all around; they ranked 23rd in defense. Not only could Jevon Carter play some backup minutes behind LaMelo Ball, he could play well alongside him. Ball can handle everything offensively, and shift over to SG on defense given his 6'7" size.

DAL. If you're looking for a playmaking 6'7" wing, we found a super one here in Dallas. Luka Doncic can handle everything on offense, so the Mavs have limited needs at PG. And even despite that, they could be loaded at the position if they re-sign Jalen Brunson to go along with Spencer Dinwiddie. However, if Brunson leaves for NYC, there could be minutes opened up for a guy like Carter. He wouldn't have to do much here but hit open 3s and chase around guards like Jordan Poole.

WAS. The Wizards have a bunch of question marks around their PG position and around their defense in general. Carter can be a good complement to Bradley Beal (who can sometimes coast on defense) in that way.


Delon Wright, Atlanta Hawks, UFA, 30 years old

Our "99 Cent Store" has had some success touting point guards in the past, including Fred VanVleet (2018), Tyus Jones (2019), and Gary Payton II (2020.) Candidly, some have not worked out as well. Back in 2019, we featured Delon Wright as a potential discount starter. He signed a richer-than-expected contract at $9M, and performed worse than expected. This past season for Atlanta was his low point, as Wright averaged only 4.4 points in his 18.9 minutes per game.

Still, this is the 99 Cent Store here, so you can't expect every produce to taste like a peach. And you can't expect every item to be brand spankin' new either. Some will be recycled or "used goods." So with that mind, Delon Wright will RE-ENTER the 99 Cent Store's shelves for 2022.

Now that he's 30 years old, Wright's time in the NBA may be ticking. Nevertheless, we're intrigued by the tools he can bring to the table. At 6'5", he's a good and fairly "switchable" defender. He averaged 2.3 steals per 36 last year (roughly his career average) and charted as an awesome +2.4 impact per 100 possessions on defense. That's a very limited sample size, but it's not far removed from his career mark of +1.7.

Normally, a defensive-specialist like Delon Wright will look lost and confused on offense, but that doesn't apply here. Dating back to his college days at Utah, Wright has been a pretty good scorer/slasher, and he's demonstrated pretty good playmaking instincts as well. In his prime, I still think he could have been a decent starter. At this age, I still think he can be a decent backup.


clearance rack

Joel Ayayi, UFA, 22 years old

When it comes to the NBA Draft, teams view older prospects like they're 40 year olds on Tinder. The first impression may be OK, but the skepticism remains. There must be something wrong with you.

Joel Ayayi suffered from that as an "over-aged" college prospect. He looked the part as a 6'5" combo guard, but he took a while to get going. He redshirted his first year at Gonzaga (rare in college basketball) and then he came off the bench the following year. He played pretty well in the next 2 seasons, but the NBA lost interest and left him undrafted in 2021.

Ayayi has decent excuses for his slow start. For one, he came from France, so it's understandable that he may have needed some time to adjust to the States. Moreover, Gonzaga tends to be a deep, stacked squad. In fact, they went a combined 95-7 (not a typo) in the 3 seasons he took the court.

To be clear, Ayayi was never the star of the team. At times, he wasn't even the 2nd or 3rd or even 4th best player on the Bulldogs. But in a way, that's not a bad thing. In a sense, it prepared Ayayi for his likely NBA role. He's a glue guy and minutes filler who can play either the 1 or the 2. This past season in the G-League, he averaged 14.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per 36 minutes. He didn't score a ton, but he shot efficiently (60% from the field, 38% from 3.) And while all those numbers scream potential "fluke," they're similar to his college numbers as well (53% from the field, 36% from 3, 7+ rebounds per 36.)

Ayayi has been dropped by a few NBA squads, presumably because he lacks upside. He doesn't have one standout skill, so it's hard to imagine him as a starter. Still, he's not far away from being a decent rotation player -- and at age 22, he can get there with some more development. He's worth a roster spot.


previously on...

We're going to try and not repeat names too much, but 99 Cent Store alums Tyus Jones (2019) and Gary Payton II (2020) are worth keeping an eye on. Both have played well and may be in line for solid pay days, so they don't fit so neatly in our discount store anymore.



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