2022 Offseason Review Series: Kansas City Chiefs

Hello! My name is MahomestoHel-aire (shoutout to those of you who get the pun) and this is the official r/nfl Offseason Review for the Kansas City Chiefs. This is my first time doing this, however, I did have a past life writing several in-depth guides for Madden forums, so I am sort of familiar with the territory you could say. I put a lot of work into this with the goal of making it a worthwhile read for both Chiefs fans and non-fans alike of all levels of knowledge, so I sincerely hope you enjoy. It is quite long, just an FYI, so I’m going to shorten up a few of the sections in the main post and expand on them in the comments. Many thanks to the writer for the Bills u/ThePizzaDevourer for that idea. Let’s get into it!

Team: Kansas City Chiefs

Division: AFC West (colloquially known as The Division of Death)

Previous Season Results: 12-5, 2nd seed, lost in the AFC Championship

Coaching Changes - Hirings (detailed analysis in the linked comment - will be added shortly)

Name	Previous Team	Previous Position	New Position	Grade
Matt Nagy	Chicago Bears	Head Coach	QB Coach	C
Joe Cullen	Jacksonville Jaguars	Defensive Coordinator	Defensive Line Coach	B-
Brendon Daly	N/A	Defensive Line Coach	Linebackers Coach	B+
Rod Wilson	Coastal Carolina	Inside Linebackers Coach	Defensive Assistant	B+

Coaching Changes - Firings

Nobody! Though I would like to give a massive thanks to Mike Kafka, even though he will never see this, who did an excellent job as the QB coach for several years before being hired as the new OC for the New York Giants. Much of the fanbase figured he would be the heir to Reid and it was sad to see him go.

Players Lost - Free Agency (2021 primary starters in bold)

Name	Position	New Team/FA/Retired
Austin Blythe	C/OG	Seattle Seahawks
Anthony Hitchens	MLB	Free Agent
Mike Hughes	CB	Detroit Lions
Melvin Ingram	DE	Miami Dolphins
Kyle Long	OG	Free Agent
Tyrann Mathieu	S	New Orleans Saints
Ben Niemann	LB	Arizona Cardinals
Dorian O'Daniel	LB	Free Agent
Alex Okafor	DE	Free Agent
Byron Pringle	WR	Chicago Bears
Jarran Reed	DT	Green Bay Packers
Mike Remmers	OT/OG	Free Agent
Demarcus Robinson	WR	Las Vegas Raiders
Daniel Sorensen	S	New Orleans Saints
Charvarius Ward	CB	San Francisco 49ers
Armani Watts	S	Indianapolis Colts
Darrel Williams	RB	Arizona Cardinals

Players Lost - Traded (2021 primary starters in bold)

Name	Position	New Team	Compensation
Tyreek Hill	WR	Miami Dolphins	2022 1st, 2022 2nd, 2022 4th, 2023 4th, 2023 6th

Who we'll miss: (at the link - will be added shortly)

Who we wish well but are happy to see go: (at the link - will be added shortly)

Players Signed - Futures

Name	Position
Omar Bayless	WR
Dicaprio Bootle	CB
Cortez Broughton	DT
Matt Bushman	TE
Shilque Calhoun	LB
Brandin Dandridge	CB
Austin Edwards	DE
Daurice Fountain	WR
Jordan Franks	TE
Josh Gordon	WR
Darius Harris	LB
Gary Jennings Jr.	WR
Roderick Johnson	OT
Devon Key	S
Cornell Powell	WR
Mark Vital	TE

Players Signed - Re-signed (projected starters in bold):

Name	Position	Years	Total Salary
Blake Bell	TE	1	1.27 million
Chad Henne	QB	1	3.26 million
Jerick McKinnon	RB	1	1.27 million

Notable Re-signings:

There are surprisingly zero re-signed players who are projected to start, but all three could find themselves in a significant role down the line. Blake Bell is projected to be the TE2 again alongside Kelce in two TE sets, which is always useful, however, those plays are likely to be rare and Jody Fortson could definitely take that spot from him. More on that in a bit. Jerick McKinnon meanwhile won’t be a starter straight away, but he very well could be eventually, however, it is quite the crowded RB room. For now, he seemed to have showed enough last year to where the Chiefs were willing to hold onto him. Finally, Chad Henne looks to slot in behind Mahomes as the superstar’s backup once again, and will get the types of playing time that a QB2 usually does.

Players Signed - New Signings (projected starters in bold)

Name	Position	Previous Team	Years	Total Salary
Deon Bush	S	Chicago Bears	1	1.18 million
Jermaine Carter	LB	Carolina Panthers	1	1.77 million
Geron Christian	OT	Houston Texans	1	1.18 million
Corey Coleman	WR	New York Giants	1	965,000
Ronald Jones II	RB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1	1.50 million
Evin Ksiezarczyk	OT	Buffalo Bills	Unknown	Unknown
Elijah Lee	LB	Cleveland Browns	1	1.05 million
Justin Reid	S	Houston Texans	3	31.5 million
Austin Reiter	C	Los Angeles Rams	1	1.03 million
JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	3.25 million
Taylor Stallworth	DT	Indianapolis Colts	1	1.18 mil
David Steinmetz	OT	Washington Football Team	Unknown	Unknown
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	Green Bay Packers	3	30 million

Notable signings:

Justin Reid - Justin Reid isn’t Tyrann Mathieu, but he’s certainly going to try to be, as their de facto replacement for him in the Chiefs lineup. From everything that I’ve read about him, the former Houston Texan seems to do his best work when the defense isn’t fully reliant on him to play well, such as in 2018, when he had his best year of his career to this point (3 picks, 10 PD, 2 FR, 2 TFL and 88 combined tackles). That shouldn’t be an issue for the Chiefs, who have a good core of young DB’s that can hold their own. He’s also versatile, able to play all over the field, but will likely stick to his main position of FS more often than not, which will hopefully help as well.

Juju Smith Schuster - JuJu also does his best work when he has teammates around him who can take the pressure off, and the Chiefs have that in spades at receiver, as well as a QB that excels at getting the ball to his receivers by any means necessary. While his last full season wasn’t bad at all (97 receptions for 831 yards and 9 TD’s) he hasn’t quite yet found that 2018 form yet (111, 1426 and 7). But if there’s anyone that can unlock his full potential, it’s Reid and Kansas City.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling - MVS was a YPR stud in his four years with Aaron Rodgers, tallying 123 catches in each of his four years as a Packer and averaging a stunning 17.5 yards per catch. That said, his catch percentages were less than stunning, with his career mark hovering at just under 50%, so the Chiefs coaching staff will need to work with him on that. At the end of the day though, MVS still has that deep play ability, and Mahomes is one of the few QB’s in the league who can do just as much with that as Rodgers could.

Ronald Jones II - Jones II got the really short end of the stick last season, barely getting any reps in multiple games early on before eventually being replaced entirely by Leonard Fournette. Still, he showed off what he could do the year prior, with 978 rushing yards, 7 rushing TD’s and an excellent 5.1 YPC. The fifth year vet will likely slot behind CEH as the team’s primary RB2 and third down/goalline back, similar to the role Darrel Williams held for a couple years. That said, he is also likely the player next in line for CEH’s spot, should the latter disappoint or have to miss any time.

Taylor Stallworth - The Chiefs might have picked up a one year wonder in Stallworth, or they found an up and comer who could find himself in a rotational spot. Long thought of as a pass rush specialist who was a major liability against the run, Stallworth turned it around in a big way last year, tallying 12 run stops with career highs in sacks (3.0), tackles (16), TFL (4) and QB hits (12). With the Chiefs struggling to find defensive line help, the future is unknown but potentially bright for the soon to be 27 year old.

Players Traded For

Name	Position	Previous Team	In Exchange For
Lonnie Johnson Jr.	CB	Houston Texans	2023 7th

Draft

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
1	21	Trent McDuffie	CB	Washington

McDuffie was a projected Top 15 pick that dropped several spots lower than expected, which is automatically a plus. He’s not necessarily the size that Veach or Spags typically like, but that honestly signifies more than anything that the team has a lot of confidence in his athleticism, versatility and in particular, his intelligence. I expect him to be an immediate starter in the slot, with the ceiling of an All-Rookie selection. Grade: A-

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
1	30	George Karlaftis	DE	Purdue

Karlaftis gets hate he doesn’t deserve simply because drafting him meant the Chiefs didn’t get a WR in the first round. That said, he was absolutely a better value than just about anyone left on that board, WR’s included. The Chiefs desperately needed an NFL-ready DE with a good floor and they got one in Karlaftis. He’s a pure power rusher with some serious strength and, to use a buzzword that the draft broadcasts loved, a crazy high motor. Not to mention: he’s only 21. Barring anything crazy, he should be the Chiefs Week 1 starter opposite Frank Clark. Grade: A

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
2	54	Skyy Moore	WR	Western Michigan

I did some serious research before the draft into the wide receivers I really wanted and felt would be a perfect fit in the Chiefs offense, regardless of round projection. In the end, I came up with three: Jameson Williams, Garrett Wilson and Skyy Moore. For those of you who don’t remember, there were three WR’s drafted in the four picks before the Chiefs took Skyy Moore, and the Chiefs actually traded down from the spot where the first of those three WR’s were taken. Veach has said they were fine with taking any of them, but I was not. I wanted Moore. Why? Because he fills in a LOT of gaps that Hill left behind. He isn’t as fast as Hill, but his release and ability to separate quickly are top notch. He can line up all over the field, including in the backfield, and has some great CIT skills for a smaller guy. And he’s still very much fast, with a 4.41 40. It will be quite interesting to see how exactly the Chiefs utilize their four main WR’s and who will wind up sitting the bench more than they see the field, but regardless of what happens this season, Moore is the type of player who can be a key weapon for Mahomes for many, many years. Grade: A

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
2	62	Bryan Cook	S	Cincinnati

Cincinnati had easily one of the best defenses in college football in 2021, in large part to safety Sauce Gardner, who was drafted 4th overall, but also guys like Brian Cook. Cook is a hard hitter who tackles extremely well while still staying reliable in coverage, which already sounds like an upgrade to Sorensen. That said, his athletic upside and versatility is limited, and he was a bit of a stretch that they probably could have waited for if they still really wanted him. I see him likely being the third safety in the Chiefs nickel and dime packages, with the potential to take over a starting safety spot if he develops into something further. Grade: B-

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
3	103	Leo Chenal	LB	Winsconsin

My favorite pick of the draft. A liability in coverage but a fantastic run stuffer and blitzer with top level power, instinct and blistering straight-line acceleration, Chenal will hopefully be the answer to both the pass rush woes of late and the run defense issues of the past several years. But that doesn’t even come close to describing this dude. Let’s just run through some of his combine/pro day numbers:

40 yard dash: 4.57

10 yard split: 1.5

Broad jump: 10.08’

Vertical: 40.5”

Bench: 34 reps (and he has a video of him doing 40)

That absurd athleticism is much of the reason why he scored a 9.99 out of 10 on the Relative Athletic Score scale (RAS), which ranks 4th out of every LB in college football from 1987 to now. To put that into perspective, DROTY and athletic specimen Micah Parsons scored a 9.59. Chenal has him beat in most categories.

This was already an A+ pick before you even look at the fact that they got him at 103 somehow. Fantastic value for a guy who has the best chance of becoming a superstar out of the Chiefs entire draft class in my opinion. Grade: A+

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
4	135	Joshua Williams	CB	Fayetteville State

The first DII player taken in the draft, Joshua Williams was also the second CB taken by the Chiefs in the draft and the exact opposite of McDuffie when it comes to size, standing at 6 foot 3 with near 33 inch arms. Williams is potential personified, with great athleticism, nice short-burst speed and decent mechanics for his experience level. If the coaching staff can build on those attributes, he could be something special. And it’s well worth mentioning here that the Chiefs have been excellent at drafting and developing mid-round corners in recent years, with the likes of Fenton and Sneed. Grade: B+

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
5	145	Darian Kinnard	OT/OG	Kentucky

Kinnard was noticeably upset that he dropped as low as he did. I like that. I also like shoring up the tackle position, which as we’ll get into is probably the weakest of all the positions on the team, offense or defense. Kinnard is pure power, with big long arms and a lot of strength but concerning agility and footwork. He has the ability to play guard too, a position that requires less of those last two traits, but will almost definitely be a backup in that regard. To get a potential starter in the 5th round though, especially one who is coming in with a chip on his shoulder, is nothing but good value to me. Grade: B-

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
7	243	Jaylen Watson	CB	Washington State

Round 7 picks are for long-shots with potential, and I think Watson is definitely a worthwhile long-shot to take on. While not the most athletic, Watson is tall, lengthy and physical, and overall has the traits to potentially carve out a role someday on the outside. That said, a third corner might have been the wrong choice here. We’ll see. Grade: C+

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
7	251	Isaih Pacheco	RB	Rutgers

Pacheco, meanwhile, is an excellent long-shot to take a chance on. With top-end speed (4.37 40, fastest among all RB’s at the combine), good agility and explosiveness as well as above-average blocking for his size, Pacheco could definitely make the starting roster and maybe even find himself in a rotational role sooner rather than later. Plus, his attitude is excellent, as he’s spoken openly about being willing to play wherever they need him to and just wanting to be on the field. Keep an eye out for this guy in the preseason. Grade: A

Round	Pick	Name	Position	College
7	259	Nazeeh Johnson	DB	Marshall

This feels a lot like a pure special teams pick, and with all due respect to the great Dave Toub, I don’t like that. There needs to at least be some potential for a player to play their actual position when you draft them in my opinion. Johnson had great numbers at his pro day, a 4.38 40 time and near 11 foot broad jump among them, but there’s really just not much upside for him to ever carve out a role in the defense. Not to mention, that makes half of the players drafted DB’s. Grade: D

Overall Draft Grade: B+

UDFA

Name	Position	College
Mike Caliendo	OG	Western Michigan
Jack Cochrane	LB	South Dakota
Dustin Crum	QB	Kent State
Jerrion Ealy	RB	Ole Miss
Tayon Fleet-Davis	RB	Maryland
Nasir Green	S	Wake Forest
Kehinde Oginni	TE	N/A
Gene Pryor	T	Hawaii
Mike Rose	LB	Iowa State
Justyn Ross	WR	Clemson

Other Team-Related Off-season News

Orlando Brown refusing to play under the franchise tag is concerning, given the importance of the position he plays and the lack of depth the Chiefs have in that spot. We just found out recently that he won’t be reporting to training camp, at least initially, which makes the possibility of him sitting out part or all of the regular season a bit more likely.

Other than that, there’s really not much aside from Mahomes’ announcing he’s having a son. With that kid’s ridiculous genetics, I expect that new development to affect the team one way or another in about 21 years.

Positional Group Strengths and Weaknesses, Overall Grades and Rankings

I need to preface this by saying that when it comes to the grades, they’re weighted. That means that while there is a pretty big drop off between QB1 and QB2 on the Chiefs, the QB1 is one of the best QB’s in football, and as the QB1 he influences the grade a lot more than the QB4. For simplicity's sake, let’s say 40%, 30%, 20% and 10% in this case, and I give them an A+, C-, C+ and C-, respectively. That along with the weighting equals the grade you see below (you can even check on a grade calculator if you’d like).

Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Shane Buechele, Dustin Crum

Biggest strength: Mahomes.

Biggest weakness: If they lose Mahomes, they’re likely cooked.

Overall Grade: B

(Very) Rough Ranking among the NFL: Top 12

Backfield: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones II, Jerick McKinnon, Derrick Gore, Isiah Pacheco, Jerrion Ealy, Tayon Fleet-Davis, Michael Burton (FB)

Biggest strength: Potential. I’ve already discussed Pacheco and Jones II, but Gore and McKinnon both showed flashes of brilliance last season, and Gore is only in his fourth year. CEH meanwhile is in his third year and still has the ceiling of a premier RB and valuable receiver out of the backfield, he just hasn't quite managed to break through it yet.

Biggest weakness: Durability. Clyde has had his fair share of injury issues, as has Jones II, but it’s McKinnon that has had the most trouble, leading to the Chiefs largely keeping him benched until the postseason last season in order to protect his health.

Overall Grade: C+

Rough Ranking: Bottom 15

Receivers: Mecole Hardman, JuJu-Smith Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Corey Coleman, Daurice Fountain, Josh Gordon, Omar Bayless, Gary Jennings, Cornell Powell, Aaron Parker, Justin Watson, Justyn Ross, Travis Kelce, Blake Bell, Noah Gray, Jody Fortson, Jordan Franks, Mark Vital, Matt Bushman

Biggest Strength: Depth. When one of those first four WR’s is your WR4, that’s a very good thing. The Chiefs will have the ability to pick and choose when it comes to the three receivers they put on the field.

Biggest Weakness: No true WR1. While the depth is there, there’s no real indicator who is going to take the lead role at the position, if there will ever be one at all. A role like that may not be necessary, but it feels important.

Overall Grade: A-

Rough Ranking: Top 8

Offensive Line: Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney, Trey Smith, Orlando Brown Jr., Andrew Wylie, Lucas Niang, Darius Kinnard, Austin Reiter, Nick Allegretti, Mike Caliendo, Chris Glaser, Vitaliy Gurman, Geron Christian, Roderick Johnson, Evin Ksiezarczyk, David Steinmetz, Prince Tega Wanogho

Biggest Strength: Interior. The Chiefs have two stellar starting OG’s in Thuney and Smith along with an even better center in Creed Humphrey, and together they may just be the best offensive interior in football.

Biggest Weakness: Exterior. The tackles are another story. Brown Jr. has yet to sign, and there’s not much depth past him. Their best hope if he sits out is that Darius Kinnard pans out in a big way and Niang is able to hold down the fort on the other end. Otherwise they may need to sign someone else.

Overall Grade: A-

Rough Ranking: Top 8

Defensive Line: Frank Clark, George Karlaftis, Chris Jones, Derrick Nnadi, TTershawn Wharton, Mike Danna, Taylor Stallworth, Joshua Kaindoh, Shilique Calhoun, Austin Edwards, Kehinde Oginni Hassan, Cortez Broughton, Khalen Saunders

Biggest Strength: Upside. Karlaftis has the abilities necessary to make an immediate impact in his first year, and Jones will be back at his best position for good after a stint at DE in 2021. There is definitely a good chance that the dismal sack numbers from last year will improve, among other things.

Biggest weakness: Run defense. For many years the Chiefs have largely struggled with stopping running backs, allowing the 2nd most YPC in 2021. The Chiefs drafted Bolton last season and Chenel this year to help stifle that, but the line is still in desperate need of a true brick wall DT.

Overall Grade: B-

Rough Ranking: Top 15

Linebackers: Nick Bolton, Willie Gay, Leo Chenal, Jermaine Carter Jr., Jack Cochrane, Darius Harris, Elijah Lee, Mike Rose

Biggest Strength: Speed. Bolton is a literal lightning bolt with absurd acceleration and Gay can scoot as well. Chenel’s 4.53 40 ranked 7th among LB’s at the combine.

Biggest Weakness: Inexperience. Willie Gay will be going into just his third year in the NFL and that is as many as the other two have combined. That said, this is probably the weakest weakness of all the groups.

Overall Grade: A-

Rough Ranking: Top 8

Secondary: L'Jarius Sneed, Rashad Fenton, Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, Justin Reid, Juan Thornhill, Bryan Cook, Deandre Baker, Dicaprio Bootle, Brandin Dandridge, Nasir Greer, Lonnie Johnson Jr. Chris Lammons, Jaylen Watson, Zayne Anderson, Deon Bush, Nazeeh Johnson, Devon Key

Biggest Strength: Corners. Sneed, Fenton and McDuffie are a darn good core, even without any particularly notable names. Sneed is quickly making a name for himself however, with excellent speed, tackling and coverage skills. Last year, he made the second most defensive stops of any cornerback in the NFL. Other corners with some upside like Deandre Baker are waiting in the wings as well.

Biggest Weakness: Leadership. Losing Matheiu not only meant losing a valuable safety, but also a longtime team captain who was the epitome of leadership. Whether or not it’s Sneed, Reid or someone else who fills that spot, they’ll need to figure it out.

Overall Grade: B+

Rough Ranking: Top 10

Special Teams: Harrison Butker, Tommy Townsend, James Winchester

Biggest Strength: Power. Butker has made 13 of his last 16 kicks from 50+ yards out, and his longest on the season has touched 56 or above in three straight years. Elsewhere, Townsend averaged the 10th highest average punt yardage in 2021.

Bonus: Dave Toub. Since he became the team’s Special Teams Coordinator in 2013, Kansas City has allowed just one return touchdown in total.

Biggest Weakness: Those darn extra points.

Overall Grade: A

Rough Ranking: Top 5

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: #5 Patrick Mahomes

It’s Patrick Mahomes. Cue Tai Verdes’ “A-O-K”.

RB: #25 Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Disappointing so far, but there is still a glimmer of hope for the third year LSU alum, who has quietly averaged 4.4 YPC in his career, but really needs to start getting more involved in the passing game.

FB: #45 Michael Burton

As solid as solid gets. He likes showing up at opportune times and I like that he does that.

TE: #87 Travis Kelce, #81 Blake Bell, maybe #88 Jody Fortson

The fact that people argue over who is the best TE between Kelce and several players several years younger than him shows how incredibly talented he is, and I’m just hoping that they can find a viable TE2, because you know Reid has a whole section of 2 TE sets just waiting to be used.

WR: #11 Mecole Hardman, #19 JuJu Smith-Schuster, #83 Marquez Valdes-Scantling, #24 Skyy Moore

I’m genuinely excited to see what this core can do. Hardman has been a bit of a disappointment to date but showed some serious improvement late last year. Meanwhile, JuJu will finally get a shot at playing with a star QB who knows what the outside of the pocket looks like, MVS will finally get a shot at playing with a star QB who knows what his family looks like, and Skyy Moore will finally get the chance to play with a star QB in general. It’s going to be fun.

LT: #57 Orlando Brown Jr.

I’m going to hold out hope here. Please sign. Please, please sign. And Veach, please give him a deal TO sign. I do not want Wylie on either edge.

LG: #62 Joe Staley

I don’t really follow individual OL rankings, but I do like looking at the block win rate charts for whatever reason, and Staley was 1st among all OG’s in pass block win rate last year. So safe to say we’re fine here.

C: #52 Creed Humphrey

Creed Is Good.

RG: #65 Trey Smith

After the draft all I saw about Trey Smith was that he was a ridiculous steal and that other teams would regret letting the Chiefs get him. When training camp started, I’m pretty sure it took him less than a day to grab and keep the starting job. Remember that pass block win rate ranking I mentioned earlier? Smith was second behind Thuney by 1%, and third in run block win rate. So yeah. Trey is good too.

RT: #77 Andrew Wylie, maybe #75 Darian Kinnard

Definitely the weakest position of the five, and unfortunately a key one for a QB who loves rolling out in that direction. Really hoping Kinnard pans out here, or Niang returns from his injury, because seriously, Wylie is not it at the tackle position.

DE: #56 George Karlaftis, #55 Frank Clark

Look, I like George Karlaftis a lot. I think he’s going to be great. But the dude needs a new nickname. There can only be one “Greek Freak”, and “Greek Freak II” like Reid offered isn’t going to cut it. He needs something more original.

Oh and yeah, Clark needs to step it up. Hopefully Karlaftis can give him the help that he’s shown can increase his own output.

DT: #95 Chris Jones, #91 Derrick Nnadi

Chris Jones on the other hand doesn’t need anybody’s help. He’s a dominant force as always. Derrick Nnadi is a quieter but perfectly viable nose tackle who will retain the spot from the departed Reed after having held it down for the three years prior.

LB: #54 Nick Bolton, #50 Willie Gay, #54 Leo Chenel

Out of all the players on the defense last year, my favorite was definitely Nick Bolton. Watching him burst through the line or race around the offensive tackles faster than anyone else never got old. That dude can fly. His one major weakness is pass coverage, but that’s where Willie Gay comes in, who is the Chiefs first real coverage MLB since Derrick Johnson. Rounding out the group is Chenel, who will bolster both the pass rush and the run defense. As the athletic profile I mentioned earlier suggests, his ceiling is massive.

CB’s: #38 L’Jarius Sneed, #27 Rashad Fenton, #21 Trent McDuffie

First of all, if you haven’t yet I highly encourage you to look up Sneed’s life story. It’s incredible.

Secondly, this is going to be his first real chance at a permantent outside corner position, with McDuffie likely to play the slot. Sneed has played outside corner in the past with a learning curve but overall success. On the other side will be Fenton, a wildly underrated corner who was ranked 6th in PFF’s CB grades last year. In no way am I saying he’s the sixth best CB in the NFL, but that’s worth at least something, as are his mere two misses out of 103 tackle attempts in his career, especially for a team that notoriously struggles to wrap up.

S: #20 Justin Reid, #22 Juan Thornhill, maybe #6 Bryan Cook

As discussed earlier, Justin Reid is the younger replacement to Matheiu and will look to make an immediate impact in the vacant spot as well as bounce back from a rough 2021. Thornhill and Bryan Cook could be fighting for the other safety position, which is detailed more in the link below.

K: #7 Harrison Butker

For some insanely odd reason, Butker has an issue with extra points. It’s not just odd because he has the second highest FG% in history (min. four years), or because his career numbers from 50+ yards (71.4%) brushes up against the legendary Justin Tucker’s (72.7). No, it’s because extra points are 33 yards, and he’s literally better at kicking field goals from 30-39 yards by 2.2%. In 2020, he missed just three FG’s over the course of the entire regular and postseason, including 6 for 6 from 50+ yards, yet missed enough extra points to where his XP% for the year dipped into the 80’s. Last year he only missed three XP including the playoffs however, which were his best numbers since his rookie year, so hopefully he’s got it figured out.

P: #5 Tommy Townsend

I really honestly only bothered addressing the ST in detail so I could rant about Butker. But Trevor Lawrence is honestly well worth mentioning, as he placed a league leading 54.1% of his punts inside the 20 yard line last year, while no other punters were better than 48.2. Special thanks to CBS for that info, who ranked punters this year for some reason.

KR: #11 Mecole Hardman, maybe #24 Skyy Moore

PR: #11 Mecole Hardman

I pretty much address these two positions in the link below, so here’s a clip of Mecole Hardman flying past pretty much everyone on the field en route to a punt return TD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boq3UcqysBo

Position Battles and Players to Watch (at the link - will be added shortly)

Season Game-by-Game Predictions

Preseason Predictions:

Nobody cares about the preseason scores but I like to be thorough, so have an entirely non-serious section as a break from all the (mostly) serious stuff.

Preseason Week 1: Chiefs @ Bears

Chiefs football is back baby! But Mahomes isn’t playing and it’s on a random Saturday at noon. Hardly anybody is watching this game past the first quarter and most of those still tuning in fell asleep in their recliners. For Bears fans, this is a season-long tradition. Bears 3 Chiefs 8

Preseason Week 2: Chiefs vs. Commanders

Mahomes plays a drive, McLaurin makes a great grab, but the game winds up being delayed and ultimately canceled when a FG attempt from Washington kicker Joey Slyle hits one of the uprights, bringing the whole thing crashing down. Luckily, there were no injuries due to this incident, however, Carson Wentz got hurt somehow anyways. Chiefs 9 Commanders 5

Preseason Week 3: Chiefs vs. Packers

Aaron Rodgers is scheduled to play in this one and finally face off against Mahomes for at least a couple of drives, but has to bow out at the last minute due to illness from ingesting a scented candle. The Packers are forced to start Jordan Love, who shocks the world by out-dueling Mahomes and company with a couple of TD passes and 60 yards on the ground. One of those sentences is realistic. Chiefs 6 Packers 19

Regular Season Predictions (detailed breakdown in the link, warning, it's a lot, multiple comments needed a lot - will be added shortly):

Week 1 - Chiefs @ Cardinals: W

Week 2 - Chiefs vs. Chargers: L

Week 3 - Chiefs @ Colts :W

Week 4 - Chiefs @ Buccaneers: W

Week 5 - Chiefs vs. Raiders: W

Week 6 - Chiefs vs. Bills: L

Week 7 - Chiefs vs. 49ers: L

Week 8 - Bye (bye bye)

Week 9 - Chefs vs. Titans: W

Week 10 - Chiefs vs. Jaguars: W

Week 11 - Chiefs @ Chargers: W

Week 12 - Chiefs vs. Rams: L

Week 13 - Chiefs @ Bengals: W

Week 14 - Chiefs @ Broncos: W

Week 15 - Chiefs @ Texans: W

Week 16 - Chiefs vs. Seahawks: W

Week 17 - Chiefs vs. Broncos: L

Week 18 - Chiefs @ Raiders: W

Final Record: 12-5 (1st in division, 2nd seed)

I’m supposed to predict the range of records the Chiefs could finish at as well as their divisional finish here, but wow is that hard to do. I think I’ve made a convincing argument for my 11-5 finish, division winning season in the detailed breakdowns, but in all honesty that is the middle of a significant range of possibilities. Let’s say that the more spread out offense doesn’t quite pan out, and the defense struggles even more than expected. At that point, you’re likely looking at more of a 10-7 record, which will probably be enough to get a wild-card spot, as unless the division splits every series and doesn’t ever have a true leader, that’s not likely good enough to win it. That’s the lower end.

On the other hand, let’s say that the well-rounded approach works wonders for both Mahomes and Reid’s playbook, Mahomes goes on a second MVP campaign, the many young pieces on the defense bring that unit back into relevance and even then some, and the Chiefs wind up edging out the Bills (or another team) for the bye with just two losses. That’s the high end. Approximately five games of difference. The Giants would have made the playoffs last year with 5 more wins. It’s just too big of a disparity.

Regardless of whatever happens, I would still feel that playoffs is a safe bet for Kansas City, and after that, their ceiling until further notice is a Super Bowl victory. If you want to think that the players lost means that it isn’t, that’s fine. But this is a team that has gone through four years of coaching and roster changes, many major injuries, slumps and other setbacks, and hosted the AFC Championship every single one of those years. That is consistency through adversity that cannot be ignored. I can’t go against that.

Offensive Scheme

If there’s one thing I should pay more attention to in football but do not, it’s scheme. If there’s one offensive scheme that is more complex and hard to explain than any other, it’s Andy Reid’s. In short: this is going to be a bit rough, and I’ll do my best.

Primarily, the Chiefs use a West Coast offense, which can be simply described as using horizontal passing plays instead of running to stretch the defense and allow for potential deep play opportunities (both in the form of a deep pass or run). However, Reid uses a version that implements concepts from the college level and it’s one that he became known for, due to being one of the first head coaches to really prove that college strategies can work consistently in the NFL. This particular West Coast variation blends in a popular type of college offense known as the Spread offense, a scheme that involves placing the QB in shotgun formation and having the receivers spread out all over the field. It also utilizes some play types that originated at the college level like zone read, which involves the QB reading the DE and making a quick decision on what to do with the ball as a result, and the Air Raid offense, which stretches the field horizontally and vertically with deep routes and crossing patterns. Both of these play types require an especially talented offense in order to work properly, hence why so few teams use either in the NFL, where talent is everywhere and the difference between good and bad teams is much, much smaller than in college.

But of course, this is far from all that Andy Reid’s offense is, or why he is widely regarded as one of the greatest play designers ever, as his creativity is off the charts. The Chiefs typically play with three WR’s and a TE. Reid and the coaches around him have long said he wants to do more with two TE sets, but just hasn’t found the player for it. Variation certainly isn’t an issue however, because those receivers line up all over the place. On one play, they might be spread out in a typical Spread formation, all across the field. On another, they’ll all be lined up on one side aside from a single man on the other. On a third, two of them could be in the backfield. Reid moves around players like a kid messing with refrigerator magnets: tossing them wherever and seeing what sticks. These are the plays where the fundamentals are largely abandoned and Andy Reid looks insane, but it’s the good insane, not the “Tua is the most accurate passer in the league '' insane, because they usually work. And when they don’t, we just laugh and move on, because so many of them have worked that no respect or reputation is lost when one dramatically fails. Not to mention, Reid is always adjusting too. So chances are that play will have a rebirth at some point, it’s just a matter of when.

And guess what? That’s STILL not all. Because Reid not only invents plays himself, he steals them from all over. From all over the NFL? No. Football. NFL. College. High School. CFL. Freaking European games. Can you name a single European football team? I can’t. Coaches have described conversations where he’ll bring up a play he found from 1910. That was a full decade before the NFL even BEGAN. Then he’ll tweak whatever play it is so that it’ll work in the modern day, and eventually release it on an unsuspecting foe. And this is the one part I feel I can talk about in full confidence, because no matter whether you’re a scheme mastermind or barely know what a draw play is, you know for a fact that that is a mad scientist level of dedication, where they’ll travel to the ends of the earth just to find a specific ingredient that they need for whatever they’re making because they are that committed to their craft. That is precisely who Andy Reid is, a mad scientist of offensive schemes, and I just have to say, it is amazing.

Defensive Scheme (at the link - will be added shortly)

Conclusion

Are we done? Oh wow, we’re done! If you read all of this AND the detailed rundowns in the comments, I applaud you as a true fan. That, or you have far too much time on your hands. Perhaps it’s both. Did I spend far too much time on this myself in retrospect? Definitely. Do I care? Not really. It was a fun project to engage in after work and keep my writing skills sharp right before I start writing some not so fun college admission essays, so thank you so much to u/PlatypusOfDeath for keeping this going for ll these years, and thanks to you all, even if you’re only reading this single paragraph for some reason. Go Chiefs!

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