2022 Offseason Review Series: The Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks – 2022 Offseason Review Series

I. Basic Information

Seattle Seahawks – 47th Season, Thirteenth under Pete Carroll

Division: NFC West

2021 Record: 7-10

• Last in NFC West
• First time as Last in Division since re-alignment (2002)

II. Coaching Changes

Pete Carroll finally fired Ken Norton Jr (age 55)—his long time yes-man defensive coordinator—after four years at the helm of the defense (2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021). Under the helm of Ken Norton Jr., the Seahawks defense went from “bend-but-don’t-break” to “bend-and-then-break”, with the Seahawks falling to the bottom half of the league in defensive DVOA for all four years and in a number of notable statistics under his tenure:

• 17th in third down conversion rate (40.2)
• 19th in sacks (151.0)
• 21st in yards per attempt allowed (7.30)
• 23rd in percentage of opponent drives that ended in punts (34.7)
• 23rd in fewest explosive plays allowed (489)
• 24th in yards per play allowed (5.67)
• 28th in yards per game allowed (373.7)
• 32nd in passing yards allowed per game (263.7)

The years of Ken Norton Jr. at the helm were some of the most frustrating as a fan, as fans frequently saw the Seahawks Defense out of position and most recently, placing big defensive ends and tackles in coverage instead of actually rushing the passer. Frequently, the Seahawks would look woeful to start the year, giving up historic amounts of yards and points, before finally settling down in the back half of the year. But instead of building on the prior year, when the next year would roll around, the Seahawks’ Defense would look clueless once again. This yo-yo formula, coupled with KNJ’s lack of talent as a defensive coordinator, quickly showed in the results – four of the five worst defensive performances in terms of points per game under Pete Carroll are the fault of KNJ, and the other is the 2010 season during Pete Carroll’s first season.

Moreover, Ken Norton Jr. frequently failed to maximize the high amount and significant draft capital he was gifted:

• 2018: Third Round Pick (DE)
• 2019: First Round Pick (DE); Second Round Pick (SS); Third Round Pick (LB), Fourth Round Pick (FS/Slot-CB)
• 2020: First Round Pick (LB); Second Round Pick (DE)
• 2021: Fourth Round Pick (CB)

Eight notably drafted players. Zero pro bowlers. In total, these eight players generated 51 wAV according to Pro Football Reference. For example, in that same time frame, the Packers generated 67 wAV with six players, and one of those players (Jaire Alexander) made the Pro Bowl and was a Second-Team All Pro in 2020. Moreover, in 2021 under KNJ’s orders, the 2019 Day 1 and Day 2 picks (the first round DE, the second round SS, and the third round LB) played a total of just over 500 snaps… combined. Worse still, a third of those snaps came after the Seahawks were eliminated as playoff contenders. The failure of Ken Norton Jr. to develop his highly drafted players is a large reason why the Seahawks have not truly been contenders under his tenure.

Nevertheless, while it might have been a few years too late, KNJ is finally gone. As his replacement, Pete Carroll kept the position in house, promoting Clint Hurtt (aged 43) to the position. Clint Hurtt previously served as the Seahawks defensive line coach and was an assistant head coach for the team. He held that role from 2017-2021. Hurtt was an interesting hire from the outset, as he did not come from the Monte Kiffin defensive tree that birthed Pete Carroll’s 4-3 Under scheme, but from the Vic Fangio defensive tree that primarily plays a 3-4. It has been suspected that the Seahawks will be moving to a 3-4 alignment for 2022, and reports from offseason workouts and practices have alleged that to be the case, but until the team opens up at training camp in a 3-4, it still remains to be seen. This is Hurtt’s first time calling plays as a defensive coordinator ever, so some growing pains are to be expected.

Supporting Clint Hurtt in his new role are two external hires – Karl Scott (36) and Sean Desai (38). Both are products of non-Pete Carroll systems: Desai spent two years with Hurtt under Vic Fangio, while Karl Scott most recently was under Mike Zimmer. Karl Scott will serve as the Secondary Coach and Passing Game Coordinator, while Sean Desai serves as the Associate Head Coach and a Defensive Assistant. Interestingly, in 2021 – Desai was the first person of Indian descent to serve as a coordinator on either side of the ball in the NFL.

The only other major change on the offensive side of the ball was the firing of Mike Solari. While Solari and Brian Schottenheimer reportedly worked well together, after the Seahawks went with Shane Waldron who brought over his own offensive line coach in Andy Dickerson, the writing was likely on the wall. Waldron and Dickerson will likely look to implement more of the Rams’ wide zone-blocking scheme instead of the power zone-blocking scheme of Solari.

III. Free Agency (Players Lost/Cut/Traded)

Player	Position	New Team
Russell Wilson	QB	Broncos
Bobby Wagner	LB	Rams
D.J. Reed	CB	Jets
Rasheem Green	DE	Texans
Ethan Pocic	LG/C	Browns
Gerald Everett	TE	Chargers
Duane Brown	OT	Free Agent
Carlos Dunlap	DE	Free Agent
Brandon Shell	OT	Free Agent
Benson Mayowa	DE	Free Agent
Alex Collins	RB	Free Agent

Obviously the losses in free agency are headlined by the loss of two soon to be hall-of-fame bound players in Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner. The loss of both will be discussed in further detail below.

Interestingly enough, no less than five significant starters for the Seahawks in 2021 remain as free agents as of July 5, 2022. That speaks to the lack of talent on the roster – and how little the NFL thinks of Pete and John’s talent evaluation. During the glory years, the Seahawks castoffs would be quickly snapped up, but these days, the Seahawks castoffs languish in purgatory.

IV. Free Agency (Players Re-signed)

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Player	Position
Quandre Diggs	FS
Rashaad Penny	RB
Al Woods	DT
Sidney Jones	CB
Geno Smith	QB
Ryan Neal	SS
Will Dissly	TE
Kyle Fuller	OG/C
Bryan Mone	DT

V. Free Agency (New Players Signed or Acquired via Trade)

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Player	Position	Old Team
Uchenna Nwosu	LB	Chargers
Artie Burns	CB	Bears
Quinton Jefferson	DT	Raiders
Austin Blythe	C	Chiefs
Justin Coleman	CB	Dolphins
Joel Iyiegbuniwe	LB	Bears
Noah Fant	TE	Broncos
Shelby Harris	DT	Broncos
Drew Lock	QB	Broncos
Marquise Goodwin	WR	Bears

VI. 2022 Draft (Players and Analysis)

A. Pre-Draft Analysis

The Seahawks came into the draft, armed with weapons from the Russell Wilson trade but lacking their own firepower due to the Jamal Adams catastrophic debacle, had a number of holes to fill along the trenches and on defense to build a team that could be put over the top by a young QB in 2023 or 2024. With a team that was not looking to compete in 2022, the goal was to draft players that could be used to bolster a future run without compromising the ability of the team to draft the quarterback of the future.

The interesting draft strategies of Pete Carroll and John Schneider from 2013 onward resulted in the Seahawks missing on a significant amount of draft picks (especially high picks) in recent memory. But the three most recent drafts by the Seahawks have brought in a number of players (Metcalf, Brooks, Taylor) that could be considered blue chip talent. The Seahawks looked to build on that success in 2022.

B. First Round, Pick Number 9: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

For the first time in seemingly forever, the Seahawks did not get cute in the first round – they stayed put and drafted the best player available that fit their needs at the time. With both starting tackles unsigned as of draft day, OT as a huge need. Even if both were signed though, the Seahawks had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL in 2021, and new talent was needed. The team immediately tried to rectify that.

The 21-year-old Cross comes from a Mike Leach air-raid system and was not asked to run block all that often, which could be a problem under Pete Carroll, but the 6-5, 310-pound OT has all of the tools to do both. He was regarded as the best pure-pass blocking OT in the draft, only surrendering 2 sacks and 16 pressures versus SEC competition in 2021. Against Alabama, he didn’t allow a single pressure in 64 pass blocking plays either. Unfortunately, he will likely be called to start Week 1, meaning he will get a baptism by fire, especially as he has to face both Bosa brothers to start the season. Most OT prospects struggle out of the gate, but as this is not a year where the Seahawks look to contend, it does not matter if Cross whiffs a block and Nick Bosa crushes Geno Smith or Drew Lock. Both will likely not lead this team to contention. What matters is that Cross learns from that missed block to not allow the QB of the Near Future to get crushed when next he sees Nick Bosa.

I personally thought the Seahawks had a more dire need at DE/Edge opposite Darrell Taylor as Uchenna Nwosu is nothing special, but the board worked against them and all the top DE prospects were gone. But you can’t be mad at your team investing in the trenches. Especially in one of the most valuable positions in football – Left Tackle.

C. Second Round, Pick 40: Boye Mafe, EDGE, Minnesota

The Seahawks needed another pass rushing prospect, and the Seahawks picked Mafe to do it. As typical of the Seahawks under Schneider, Mafe impressed at the senior bowl, and that put him squarely in the Seahawks’ sights. Mafe was a stellar athlete with good speed and bend, much like Taylor was. The 6’4”, 261 pounds edge rusher displayed great speed (4.53 in the 40 with a 1.56 10-yard split) and a 38” vertical. He needs to work on his hand fighting and to develop into more of a run-stopper, but as a young player, he will likely be only called to pass rush, and he can grow into a more complete EDGE over time. That has been the Seahawks strategy with many drafted pass rushers (e.g., Bruce Irvin, Frank Clark). That being said, Mafe will be 24 this season – so he needs to develop quickly.

D. Second Round, Pick 41: Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State

The Seahawks needed more horses in the RB stable. Carson is likely done for his career with his metal infused neck, and Rashaad Penny has never carried the load for half of a season, let alone a full one. I didn’t think the Seahawks needed a RB this early, but Carroll looks to pound the rock in order to avoid having Lock or Geno throw the ball that often, and this was the best RB in the class according to the Seahawks. While Walker has the explosive speed, talent, and fortitude on the tape to carry the load, I am always wary about RBs that had a lot of carries in college. I am also concerned that Walker does not have a lot of pass-catching ability either. Let’s hope that the Seahawks didn’t pick the next Rashaad Penny while someone else got the next Nick Chubb.

E. Third Round, Pick 72: Abraham Lucas, OT, Washington State

I loved this pick. Lucas was the OT prospect I always coveted when I looked at the tape. Lucas is a seasoned veteran (albeit also in an air-raid styled offense) and the caliber of opponents he had to play in the PAC-12 are not the same as those in the SEC. However, Lucas reportedly dominated at the Senior Bowl (including against Boye Mafe), so it was obvious that the Seahawks would be interested, but there were a lot of picks in between 41 and 72. I was concerned, as well as a lot of other Seahawks fans (especially those that went to WSU), that he might not make it to 72. But he did. I’m sure I wasn’t the only one that was celebrating when this pick was announced. Lucas does not have the measurables that Cross does, but what Cross should do as a talent, hopefully Lucas can do the same with his technique. The Seahawks hopefully locked up the OT position for years to come with this draft. Like I said earlier, better to start both as rookies and season them now so they are ready to block for the next Seahawks QB.

F. Fourth Round, Pick 109: Coby Bryant, CB, Cincinnati

Coby Bryant (outside of the shorter than standard arms) stands out as a prototypical Seahawks CB. Well versed in reading routes, good eyes for the ball, confident in his decisions, and a bit of a shit-talker on the field. You don’t win the Jim Thorpe award, especially playing across from (and in the shadow of) Sauce Gardner, by playing like a #2 DB. Bryant got his hands on the ball quite a number of times too (9 INTs, 4 forced fumbles, 35 passes defensed). Pete Carroll has to be over the moon to be able to coach this guy. It would not surprise me if Bryant was a Day 1 or close to a Day 1 starter for the Seahawks. While the team likely will take time to gel on defense, getting Bryant on the field to season him against NFL talent would likely do wonders (much like how it did for a young Richard Sherman to get on the field in 2011 before turning himself into a household name in 2012).

G. Fifth Round, Pick 153: Tariq Woolen, CB, Texas-San Antonio

After doubling up at OT, the Seahawks double up at CB. While Coby looks to be able to start right away, Tariq looks to be a long term project. Dude is built like a pterodactyl – 6’4” (99th percentile) and 33 5/8” arms (97th percentile) – and has the explosive agility of a pterodactyl too, with a blazing 4.26 40 yard dash (99th percentile), 1.49 10 yard split (93rd percentile), and 42” vertical jump (97th percentile). Woolen is a raw WR to DB convert that hails from a small school, but if Pete Carroll can tap into his potential, look out. The upside here is extremely high, and that’s what you want with a 5th round pick.

H. Fifth Round, Pick 158: Tyreke Smith, EDGE, Ohio State

The doubling up continues – after doubling up at OT and CB, the Seahawks return to EDGE for another prospect. Tyreke Smith looks raw on film, perhaps the coaching staff at Ohio State just focused on coaching up other guys, but most of Tyreke’s seven sacks look to come from his high revving motor just making something out of nothing and not him winning with superb technique. The Seahawks will likely try to see if they can coach him into being a producing pass rushing specialist, as Tyreke looks a little light to guard against the run on early downs, and I don’t see a lot of more room on his frame to add much additional muscle. I worry about his speed, which was quite poor (4.86 40), but at the Senior Bowl, he did impress and was competitive. Perhaps he just needs coaching. If he doesn’t work out, he’s only a 5th rounder. No big loss.

I. Round 7, Pick 229: Bo Melton, WR, Rutgers

Bo Melton is an explosive WR that looks to be a draft hedge against Eskridge and Goodwin not living up to expectations. Melton’s 4.34 speed can take the top off defenses and he showed some decent RAC potential. Hopefully he can learn some things (including a better route tree) from Lockett, who was similarly built coming into the NFL. Melton did not produce much at Rutgers, but Rutgers had literal trash at QB, so it does not shock me that he did not have much of a chance to show out on film. I wouldn’t be shocked if this guy is the talk of camp.

J. Round 7, Pick 233: Dareke Young, WR, Lenoir-Rhyne

The Seahawks doubled up on OT, CB, EDGE, and now WR, with a high upside prospect. Young’s college career was derailed by injury (broken leg, MCL sprain). Apparently the Seahawks brought in Young for a visit and were blown away at his testing results. The WR stands at 6’3” and ran a 4.4 40, jumped a 37 inch vert and 11’3” broad jump. He’s also rocked up at 224 pounds. His tape looked decent but really raw, but as he was at a D2 school, hard to really say how much his RAC ability would translate at the NFL level. Will be watching his progress in camp.

VII. Offseason News

The last section I write each year is always offseason news because I want to give you the most complete version of the offseason storylines.

A. The End of the Russell Wilson Era

After 10 years and 10 seasons, the Russell Wilson era ends in Seattle. Wilson leaves the Seahawks holding or tying most of the Seahawks QB records, including:

• Most Passes Attempted – Career (4,735);
• Most TDs – Career (292);
• Most TDs – Season (40, 2020);
• Most TDs – Rookie (26, 2012) (tied NFL record)
• Most Completed Passes - Career (3,079);
• Most Completed Passes – Season (384, 2020);
• Most Games Played (158);
• Most Games Started (158);
• Most Yards - Career (37,059);
• Most Yards – Season (4,219, 2016)
• Most Wins (104);
• Most Fourth Quarter Comebacks (24);
• Most Game Winning Drives (32)
• Most QB Wins Per Season (2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th).

We all know that the quarterback is the most important position in sports. The Seahawks waited almost forty years for an elite QB before Wilson walked through the door in 2012. Sure, they had QBs that made the pro bowl (Dave Krieg and Matt Hasselbeck) but neither were ever one of the top 5 QBs in the NFL like Wilson was. And we know that when the elite QB departs, many teams have waited decades after for an generationally elite QB that can carry a team for a decade to return. Elite QBs do not grow on trees, as the Browns can attest to. The Dolphins have waited 20+ years to replace Marino. The Jets have waited over 50 years to replace Joe Namath. The 49ers were lucky to replace Joe Montana with Steve Young, but its been decades since Young retired.

Why then, is the undisputed best quarterback in franchise history gone when he still can play? To me, this comes down to a power struggle between QB and Front Office Management that was resolved incorrectly.

So how did we get here? It is well reported that Wilson and team management were in lockstep in mentality to start their relationship together. Wilson wants to be an all-time great – chasing Brady, Brees, Manning, and Montana. Carroll fanned those ambitious flames at the beginning. According to reports, Pete was Wilson’s biggest fan on the team, and fanned Wilson’s ambition: “‘Pete was his biggest fan,’ former running backs coach Sherm Smith said. Carroll loved Wilson’s ambition. Like Carroll, Wilson always wanted more — more responsibility, more freedom.” Sherm Smith said that Carroll told him that he might have retired much earlier “If it wasn’t for No. 3.” Carroll later said that “I’ve been here a long time. And if we didn’t have Russell, I probably wouldn’t have been here a long time.”

The problems started in 2017. Wilson lead the NFL in touchdown passes, led the team in rushing, and accounted for approximately 95% of the teams total offensive production, including all but three total TDs. But the Seahawks defense collapsed due to injury, and the team missed the playoffs. Instead of building the team around Wilson, Carroll fired Darrell Bevell and hired yes-man Brian Schottenheimer to establish a run first offense, which stymied Wilson’s passing attack. In one year, Wilson went from leading the NFL in TD passes to being tied for 4th. Then, in the playoffs, the Seahawks ran the ball into a stalwart Dallas defensive line until much too late for Wilson to make up any ground. The rifts began to form.

After the 2019 season, where the Seahawks fell behind early in the playoffs because of a non-aggressive game plan and eventually lost when Wilson ran out of time for a 4th quarter comeback, Wilson expressed his desire for a schematic change that would be aggressive and mirrored what Patrick Mahomes had in Kansas City under Andy Reid. This manifested in the phrase “Let Russ Cook” – and with Brian Schottenheimer on board with the plan, the QB delivered, leading the NFL in TDs (28), Yards (2,541) and Passer Rating (115.78) for half of a season. But after a speed bump over two games, Carroll over-corrected and closed the kitchen. Wilson presented his case to return to the scheme that brought the Seahawks so much success before the Arizona game in 2020, but the Seahawks dismissed his suggestions, and Wilson stormed out of the room. By 2021, the writing was on the wall that something had to give between Team and QB.

Wilson’s concerns were thus:

• Poor offensive line play during most of his tenure;
• Carroll’s ball-control conservative philosophy keeps the game close in most situations but forces the QB and the team overall to walk a razer’s edge in order to have enough to win the game at the end and then actually do it.
• Lack of superstars on offense
• Lack of input on personnel and on playcalling

The hope was that the 2021 season would mediate some of those concerns. Wilson publicly said “You know what heals all things? Winning.” But there was no winning to be had in 2021. The defense let the team down at the start of the year once again, and then Wilson got injured, rushed himself back, and was not himself. It was clear that Wilson thought that the Seahawks were not going to provide him with the opportunity to win Super Bowls because Pete and John were not going to change enough to do the things that he wanted to do. And thus, the divorce.

But was trading Wilson the right call? I think that the ownership let the wrong side of the relationship go.

• Pete Carroll was a 47-49 coach in the NFL before he got an elite QB in Russell Wilson. Pete Carroll’s record as a Seahawks coach, without Russell Wilson as the starting QB, is 15-20. Most coaches that do not have a record above .500 do not last long. As you will see from my predictions below, Pete Carroll’s record as a head coach without Russell Wilson is likely to get far worse.
• John Schneider was an amazing draft savant from 2010-2012, drafting at least five players that have a decent shot at making the Hall of Fame. But from 2013 onwards, he has not drafted well. 80 draft choices, with only 4 making the Pro Bowl for Seattle (two of them only made it for Special Teams - one as as a punt returner and the other as a punter). Famously drafting LJ Collier and Marquise Blair in the 1st and 2nd Rounds in the 2019 draft for both to be backups? In free agency, he’s consistently whiffed on trades and free agency signings (e.g., Luke Joeckel for 8m? Jamal Adams for two firsts?)
• Wilson, as shown above, is an elite QB still in his prime that is more than likely HOF bound when his career ends.

I think it more unlikely that Schneider and Carroll would be able to develop another contending team versus a younger, smarter, more innovative head coach and GM combo being able to use Russell in a more creative and effective manner. If the Seahawks had effective leadership, perhaps they would be able to make the cold, fact-based decision that Russell has been carrying Pete and John for years, and if they cut the baggage away from Wilson, he likely could sprint back to the promised land.

Brady recently showed us that the QB is far more important than the Head Coach. Brady goes to Tampa, he turns a middling team into a Super Bowl contender. The best coach in NFL history loses Brady, he wins 7 games in a cupcake division. When Brady told the owner that he no longer wanted to play for Arians due to creative differences, the owner sent Arians packing to keep the QB happy.

Unfortunately, Jody Allen put her faith in the old men at the top instead of the young phenom QB, and the team will have to live with the consequences of that decision, for weal or for woe.

B. The End of the Bobby Wagner Era

The other shoe to drop was the release of Bobby Wagner. Wagner, drafted the same year as Wilson, was the stalwart quarterback of the defense. Wagner leaves the Seahawks holding the record for most combined tackles by a Seahawks player (1,383 – leading the list by almost 400 total tackles), the most solo tackles by a Seahawks player (819 – leading K.J. Wright in second place by well over 200 tackles) and most combined tackles since 2012 for any team by more than 150. Wagner was a member of the 2010s All Decade team, and has 8 total all pro seasons (6 first team, 2 second team), and 8 pro bowls. Wagner led the NFL in tackles in 2016 and 2019. He has a HOFM score of 101.33, meaning he is likely HOF bound and will have his jersey retired in the Ring of Honor once he hangs up his cleats. Losing both Wilson and Wagner on the same day hurt.

Despite the accolades, it was suspected for quite some time that Wagner would be a cap casualty. It was the last year of his deal, he was making a significant salary that was not guaranteed, there was a cheaper rookie waiting in the wings, and Wagner reportedly refused to re-negotiate his salary. The crazy thing is that Pete and John did not even give Wagner the dignity of calling him first before news of his release got out. Wagner said: “I played there for 10 years & I didn't even hear it from them that I wasn't coming back.” Wagner deserved a better end of his run than finding out from the media that he was getting cut.

It was always evident that Wagner was going to sign with an LA-based team, but perhaps out of spite, Wagner signed with the Rams and not the Chargers. The Seahawks will play him twice late in the season.

C. Where has all the 2023 cap money gone?

The upside of the Russell Wilson trade (such as there is any) was that the Seahawks looked to have the most free cap to spend in 2023, meaning that they could be big spenders in free agency in preparation to bring in a rookie QB to put the team back in contention. According to Spotrac, the Seahawks had the most cap space out of any team in 2023—around $115-120 million to spend—based on a projected cap of $208m to $210m. Without having to pay a franchise QB the going rate for franchise QBs (45m APY), that leaves a lot of money available for skill position players and for star players looking to sign on to a team on the rise. The 12s could dream of bringing in pass rushing specialists like Yannick Ngakoue or a Bradley Chubb or a Fletcher Cox… or maybe even two or three? Maybe a stud guard as well?

But after the dust settled on free agency and the draft, the Seahawks are still relatively good in cap space (5th in the NFL), but the number has plummeted to only $53.3 million. What did the Seahawks spend that money on?

• Quandre Diggs — $18.1m
• Uchenna Nwosu — $12.8m
• Will Dissly — $9.25m
• Noah Fant — $6.8m
• Quinton Jefferson — $6.0m
• Charles Cross — $4.9m
• Bryan Mone — $3.79m

While I can’t fault the Seahawks for the Cross money (high first round picks cost what they cost), or really the Noah Fant money (rookie contract, even though the Seahawks chose him as part of the Wilson trade package) the Seahawks spent almost $62,000,000 of valuable 2023 cap space on the above players.

Why? Why do the Seahawks fritter away their money on scrubs instead of spending money on studs? How many times must I point this out? They pissed away $60m just two years ago and got almost nothing out of it. Remember $7m for Greg Olsen? $6m for Bruce Irvin? $4m for BJ Finney? $3.5m for Quinton Dunbar? $3.3m for Jacob Hollister? $2m and change for Iupati and Ogbuehi? Yuck.

Lets look at today:

• What has Will Dissly done to deserve almost $10m? Nothing of value, except get injured two years in a row and run-block slightly above average?.
• Why does Quinton Jefferson deserve $6m to play a rotational backup when he’s never even had 6 sacks in a season in his entire career? If our pass rushers develop into studs and we don’t need him next year, why does it still cost us $2m to get rid of him?
• Why does Bryan Mone deserve almost $4m when run stuffing nose tackles are a dime a dozen?
• Why does Diggs (who admittedly has played much better than Jamal ‘Best in the Naaaaaaay-tion’ Adams) deserve Minkah Fitzpatrick money?

Why are the Seahawks spending money just to spend money when they could use that money wisely? Why pay scrubs journeymen salaries instead of league minimum? I don’t get it. And this doesn’t even factor in the cap hit that will come when the Seahawks sign DK Metcalf to his mega deal – that could be $10m against the 2023 cap… which would give the Seahawks the same amount of cap they had free when they had Russell Wilson on the books.

The Seahawks should be set up to make a huge splash in the 2023 market and state to the entire NFL that the Seahawks are back. But now, it looks to be Chicago who is geared to make moves, and the Seahawks will have to settle for scraps. As usual.

D. What are Jody Allen, Pete Carroll, and John Schneider doing?

Just generally, I want to speak on how the Seahawks’ leadership team has crumbled, leaving Pete Carroll and John Schneider to run the Seahawks with no oversight. For a long time, Paul Allen ran the Seahawks and the Portland Trail Blazers with an adroit hand. Allen saved the Seahawks from moving away to California, he got a stadium built in Seattle, and he built a worldwide brand out of a team in Seattle that many considered to be in “South Alaska.” I don’t think there’s a chance that Paul Allen would let Pete and John trade the best QB the franchise ever had for relatively nothing. He would have negotiated a path forward, much as he did frequently during his tenure as owner. When Mike Holmgren couldn’t cut it as a GM, Paul Allen took his roster control away. When Jim Mora Jr. proved to not be the right man for the job, Allen cut bait and made a splash signing of Pete Carroll. But Paul Allen is gone, and the Seahawks are much worse for it.

Under Jody Allen, both the Blazers and the Seahawks look to be in free fall. Neither the Seahawks nor the Blazers made the playoffs in 2021 and both were bounced from the playoffs early in 2020. The Seahawks look to be in store for one of their worst seasons in recent memory – perhaps the worst since 2008. Why? Jody Allen is the problem. She watched septuagenarian Pete and John piss away Seahawks money and draft capital and somehow believed they were more important to the team’s success than Russell Wilson. And we will see if she is right, but I highly doubt she is.

Who is Jody Allen to decide who should the Seahawks build around? Sure, she is the person who does it, as she inherited the team from her brother’s estate after managing his money and charitable endeavors as CEO of Vulcan Inc., but who is she really? Well, according to lawsuit allegations that were filed in King County Superior Court and later settled, fifteen bodyguards accused Jody of being a sexual harasser who directed her bodyguards to smuggle animal bones (including 72 pounds of giraffe bones) internationally, including smuggling ivory from Africa. Jody Allen took the Fifth Amendment when asked about smuggling ivory or penguin skulls from Antarctica or when she requested her bodyguards to wear tight swim trunks and give her a “fashion show.” For a long time, the Seahawks had an owner they could believe in. Now we don’t.

I miss Paul Allen.

With Pete Carroll and John Schneider empowered by Jody Allen to do whatever they want, including trading away a superstar QB for pennies on the dollar – much less than the Texans got for serial sexual assaulter Deshaun Watson (both had no-trade clauses) – the duo at the top still believe they have a shot at contending. A shot at contending… with Geno Smith and Drew Lock as QBs. Schneider said “We want our fans feeling like we got a shot to win this thing every year.” Yeah… aight.

A smart owner, or smart management, would realize that trading Russell Wilson means a rebuild, and that every valuable piece on the roster should have been traded (including Metcalf and Adams). Instead, management took a half approach, and look to renovate their house while they are still living in it. Yuck.

E. What are they doing with DK Metcalf?

Another year, another stud going through the offseason without being signed early and the market cost exploding therein. The Seahawks under Schenider do not usually sign players to extensions until right before training camp, and once training camp begins in earnest, business is done. This has been a disaster. For example, it cost them Frank Clark, as the DE market exploded beyond what they were willing to pay, it cost them millions with Jamal Adams in not signing the safety to a contract when they traded for him. And now it looks to be biting them in the ass with DK Metcalf. Before free agency started, DK was likely looking at a maximum contract of 20m APY. Now the floor for Metcalf is likely 26m APY after the WR market went crazy. If they weren’t happy paying Metcalf this money, why didn’t they trade him before the draft when the cost became evident? Likely because they do not want to signal a full rebuild, as stated above.

They didn’t trade him, and now they have to pay him… so why is this taking so long? It’s clear what his market rate should be. They have to pay him. So get it done.

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VIII. Projected 53-Man Roster

IX. Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

X. Schedule Prediction

XI. Offensive and Defensive Schemes

XII. Conclusion

As you can tell, I believe the Seahawks will be quite bad this year – a sentiment that is surprisingly shared by a significant number of fans according to my data. Looking at my spreadsheet (and excluding the Panthers game as this data was generated prior to the Baker Mayfield trade) there are only four games where over 75% majority picked a win (Falcons, Lions, Giants, Jets), and only one other game where a slim majority picked a win (vs. 49ers in Week 15). There are 9 games where over 75% of the respondents predicted losses, and two other closely predicted losses.

I have always preached realism when it comes to the Offseason Review Series. Every year, we all read many of these posts, where the writers strap on the homer glasses and think this is their year to go 10+ wins based on nothing but hopes and dreams, when all too often, that turns out to not be the case. We are all fans here on /r/NFL and the offseason is full of renewal and hope, but not everyone gets to win. I do not predict wins and losses likely, and own up to my mistakes – especially after I predicted 13 wins in 2017, where I underestimated the Seahawks internal drama and overestimated the team’s strength on paper.

This year has a lot riding on it. For the first time in a decade, the Seahawks will not have more talent than the rest of the division in sports’ most important position – Quarterback. Jody Allen placed her faith in the septuagenarian head coach over the 33 year old elite QB. Jody Allen placed her faith in the 51 year old general manager and told him to find another superstar QB like he did a decade ago instead of backing the superstar QB she had on the roster. The Seahawks are in the cellar of the division, and the other teams in the NFC West are coached by younger and more innovative minds. It falls to the soon-to-be seventy-one year old head coach and executive vice president of football operations to turn back the clock and build a team that can compete not just in the division, but with the NFL writ large. This team is not one that will likely do that, but time will only tell if the old man has one more run in him, or if the magic that served him at USC and early in his run as the Seahawks head coach has run dry.

I'd like to give a shout-out to Seahawks Twitter for being consistently awful, /r/NFL_Draft for hosting some of the best draft conversation, /u/PlatypusOfDeath for hosting this thing, and all of you for reading it.

Link to Hub.