Broncos Offseason Review

Hello all! I would first of all like you heavily shout out u/countzacula for all his help making this. We were supposed to post this far earlier and ran into personal life things that delayed it. Its both our first time doing this so if its a little rough, I apologize and promise I'll be back and better next year. On that note, thank you u/PlatypusOfDeath for working with us both and setting all this up. Very grateful to be a part of it. Some of this was written before some major events happened, like Tim Patrick tearing his ACL so keep that in mind when reading! Enjoy!

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Denver Broncos

Division: AFC West

Record: 7-10 4th

Offseason Summary: The 2021 Broncos season ended with a 7-10 record and dead last in the AFC West for the second consecutive year. The team has not had a winning record since 2016 and missed the playoffs since the Sheriff rode into the sunset in 2015. These are some of the most dire straits the franchise has seen since Pat Bowlen had bought the team in 1984. Since then, the Broncos had been to more Super Bowls than losing seasons. Vic Fangio got deservedly canned after watching the Broncos offense sputter in futility most of the season ranking in the bottom 10 in all important offensive categories like: scoring, throwing the ball, and getting first downs. The little things that win games in 2021 and not 1970, which appears to be the year Fangio thought he was coaching in. The defense performed well again but simply could not overcome the offense's inability to accomplish anything on a weekly basis.

But a new sun rises on the Broncos this season. The team was sold to a rich Walmart heir for $4.65 BILLION and ended the petulant control battle the Bowlen children had been Highlandering in court the last 3 years. It was a shameful end to the proud legacy of an incredible man. You like to see family dynasties have a team through the years but all of the Bowlen spawn seem like they would have run it into the ground so welcome Mr. Walton!

And what a start to the team he got. After years of the Broncos being attached as the premier/confirmed destination from every QB from Stafford to Rodgers, Patton went for the QB very few even knew would be available in Russell Wilson. No better way to secure your future as GM for a new owner than swinging for the fences on a perennial Pro-Bowler after years of watching Broncos QB’s microwave Hot Pockets instead of cook feasts like Chef Wilson who served them for a national audience in SuperBowl 48. This offseason has all the marks of the 2012 offseason that brought them Peyton Manning. The pieces around Russ are very similar to the squad that Manning came into: elite WR group, solid O-Line, dual RB threats, and a solid(if young) defense that’s one pass rusher away from elite. This is not a rebuild year. The clock has started on this team. The next 3 years are SuperBowl or Bust. With that in mind, lets get into the review! The grades are obviously opinion based but made with the goal of a Superbowl in mind. You don’t trade MVP candidate 2035 Drew Lock unless you are ready to win now.

Coaching Changes and Grades:

Head Coach: Nathaniel Hackett - A

• This will be the most biased grade you will see on this review. Because in reality: Hackett’s resume outside of Aaron Rodgers is the miracle Jaguars season in 2017 that had them close to a Super Bowl appearance before he was fired the following year after being unable to replicate the top ranked rushing attack/bare minimum competency from Bortles. He then went to work with future HOFer, back to back MVP, and almost? Bronco Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. How much of that success goes to LaFluer/Rodgers/Hackett is unclear but Hackett is now in a prime position with another top 10 QB to prove himself as the boss. This hire gets an A because FINALLY, we get an offensive minded head coach. You can put a reasonable amount of the offensive futility on the carousel of clearance aisle Broncos QBs over the years but the coaching at the top hasn't helped either. Between Vance Joseph’s inability to use his brain in the 4th quarter and Fangio’s inability to move the offense past 1970 the Broncos offense has been in reverse since Kubiak’s departure. At the very least, this hire gives the offensive side of the ball a chance to grow. For that, it gets an A.

OC: Justin Outten N/A - See Hackett grade

• Lets not beat around the bush here. This is Hackett’s offense. All indications are the Outten is a great guy and will help in the play calling/passing game. But he will arguably be the 3rd coach of the offense behind Hackett and Russ. I'm not going to sit here and try to tell you all that he is the second coming of McVay because they hired Hackett for that job.

DC: Ejiro Evero C

• This is Evero’s first coordinator job, coming over from the Rams as their safeties coach (17’-20) before becoming their secondary coach and assisting as a passing game coordinator on their path to a Super Bowl last year. He has massive shoes to fill as the Vic Fangio/Ed Donatell defense was top 10 last year. Its important to note that a HUGE part of the defensive success was due to how heavily the offense controlled time of possession and that opponents often had some of the worst starting field position averages by game. Evero should have a free hand to revamp this defense and has some excellent pieces that should mirror what the Rams were doing during his tenure there. Most encouraging are the reports and interviews coming out of camp from players that highlight him as a “players coach” and showcase the massive difference in energy that comes from playing for him as opposed to the more matter of fact authoritarian style of the previous regime. This gets a C because this is his first high level job and it would be incredibly biased to try and give him anything but a speculative grade. However,I think the energy from the players and the new additions give this defense a solid floor, if Evero can raise the ceiling? A+ territory.

ST: Dwayne Stukes A

• He comes over with Evero from the Rams and has been coaching special teams in some capacity since being with the Buccaneers in 2008. This is a grade based on entirely on how terrible the Broncos specials teams have been outside of mainstay McManus the last 6 years. Any change is good change at this point.

Free Agency

Players lost

Player	Position	New Team
Teddy Bridgewater	QB	Dolphins - 1 YR/$6.5M
Kyle Fuller	CB	Ravens - 1 YR/$2.5M
Bryce Callahan	CB	Chargers - 1 YR/$1.2M
DaeSean Hamilton	WR	Texans - 1 YR/$1.0M

Honorable Mention: Von Miller

I have to put Von in here as an honorable mention because without him no one in this section is worth talking about. Teddy was fairly uninspiring as a game manager despite having a bevy of good weapons and a defense that kept them around in many games. Fuller/Callahan spent more time on IR than they did on the field since signing with the team. Hamilton has a good chance to resurrect his career on the Texans but was on his way out with a logjam at the position and tearing up his knee last offseason. There is a reason all of these guys signed 1 YR prove-it deals with other teams: they didn't do much while they were here and few tears are being shed upon their departure.

Von Miller, however, will be missed until the day he returns for his one-day retirement contract. This is the first offseason the team will head into training camp without him and it’s going to be very sad dealing with that reality. Even at his age he was still putting pressure on the QB, evidenced by his success in the Rams SB run and the wild contract the Bills gave him. We wish him the best of luck and await our boys return.

Players signed

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Player/Position	Old Team	Salary/Length
Randy Gregory DE	Cowboys	5 YR/$70M
D.J Jones DT	49er's	3 YR/$30M
K'Wuan Williams CB	49er's	2 YR/$5.2M
Melvin Gordon RB	Resigned	1 YR/$2.5M
Billy Turner OL	Packers	1 YR/$2.5M
Tom Compton OL	49er's	1 YR/$2.25M
Kareem Jackson SS	Resigned	1 YR/$2.0M
Eric Saubert TE	Resigned	1 YR/$1.187M
DeShawn Williams DT	Resigned	1 YR/$1.165M

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There are two categories here: impact guys who determine if you can make a Superbowl run and fringe/depth guys that protect the margins of your team against some of the random injuries that pop up .

The first group of guys would be Gregory, Jones, Gordon. Each of those are premium guys that have the chance to impact the game right away during meaningful snaps. Specifically Gregory and Jones for the DLine and pass rush. Jones is there to help offset the departure of Shelby Harris along the interior and Gregory now pairs with Bradley Chubb in the ultimate “Pray they stay healthy or there goes the pass rush” duo. Gordon is a little less flashy, far removed from his contract hold out days from the Chargers. He had a solid season last year and still has plenty of gas in the tank to compete for the starting spot and put up a good statistical season. If anything, his greatest value is in keeping some of the wear off Javonte’s body. Having either of those guys full strength heading into the postseason might be the difference in a win/loss.

The second group of guys are the Jackson, Williams, Turners and Comptons of the world. Kareem Jackson has been an emotional leader on defense but has lost a step athletically. He is here to hold down the fort in a more limited role as his ability to cover the field stretchers is slowly abandoning him. Turner and Compton are there to compete for the revolving door that is RT for the Broncos, with Turner returning to the Broncos after a 3 year vacation to the Packers. There is no such thing as too much depth on an offensive line protecting Wilson.

Draft

Round/Pick Number	Player/Position	School
1/9	Russell Wilson	Seattle Culinary Academy
2/8	Russell Wilson	Seattle Culinary Academy
2/64	Nik Bonnito - Edge	Oklahoma
3/80	Greg Dulcich - TE	UCLA
4/115	Demarri Mathis - CB	Pitt
4/116	Eyioma Uwazurike - DL	Iowa State
5/152	Delarrin Turner-Yell - S	Oklahoma
5/162	Montrell Washington - WR	Samford
5/171	Luke Wattenberg - OL	Washington
6/206	Matt Henningsen - DL	Wisconsin
7/232	Faion Hicks - CB	Wisconsin

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Projected Starting Lineup

QB - Russell Wilson

RB - Javonte Williams/ Melvin Gordon 1A/1B

FB - Andrew Beck

TE - Albert Okwuegbunam

WRs - Cortland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler

LT - Garett Bolles

LG - Dalton Risner

C - Lloyd Cushenberry III

RG - Quinn Meinerz

RT - Billy Turner

DL - Dre’Mont Jones, D.J. Jones, Mike Purcell

OLB/Edge - Bradley Chubb, Randy Gregory

ILB/MLB - Josey Jewell, Jonas Griffith, Alex Singleton

CBs - Patrick Surtain II, Ronald Darby, K’Wuan Williams, Michael Ojemudia

S - Justin Simmons, Kareem Jackson

K - Brandon McManus

P - Sam Martin

KR - Montrell Washington/Kendall Hinton

PR - Montrell Washington/Kendall Hinton

Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

Position groups:

QB - Strength A+

• Doing my best not to sound like a broken record here. It’s Russell Wilson! Bonafide top 10 QB, which the Broncos can’t say they’ve had since 2015 Manning(even then, that SB was more Deputy than Sheriff, thanks Von!!). Russ gives you an insane deep ball, good play action to open things up for the run game and red zone offense. An area of concern is how often he gets sacked. Part of it can be blamed on the offensive line but he deserves some fair criticism as well. He missed 3 games last season and still got taken down 33 times. Making it the only time since his rookie season he wasn't taken down 40 or more times. Whatever the reason is, usually waiting on a deep route to develop or trying to extend the play with his legs, its a reason for concern with Khalil Mack, Chris Jones, Joey Bosa, and Maxx Crosby getting ready to see him 6 times this years. But he takes care of the ball and always has a stellar passer rating every year. Overall, this offensive line and receivers are better than he had in Seattle. Russ will not be the reason this team fails if it does.

Backfield - Strength B

If the Broncos offense is going to be the freight train from hell that we hope for, it’s because Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon will be shoveling coal like absolute madmen. The power of these two backs is going to taunt opposing defenses to stack the box, but at the risk of leaving pass catchers open. Regardless of what they choose to do, the threat of these two players should open up the play-action that Russel Wilson thrives on. Now I’m definitely not saying Williams is Marshawn Lynch, but even a little bit of mini Beast Mode would help put Wilson in the same position that Lynch did, which was when Russ had his best years. The two should split carries with the expectation that Javonte could be a solo workhorse back if called upon. I would bet on seeing Gordon in more passing down situations due to his veteran knowledge of pass protection from shotgun and route running.

• Javonte Williams backpacking Marlon Humphrey twenty yards down the field might have been Denver’s most exciting play last season. With a league-high 31 broken tackles last year and over 900 yards rushing (while splitting carries with Gordon) Williams is going to be a force this year.
• The hype around Javonte can overshadow how good Melvin Gordon has been for the backfield, just edging out Williams in YPC, total yards, and touchdowns with the same amount of carries. A few costly fumbles last season soured some fans, but Gordon’s veteran presence makes this an excellent tandem.

OL - Slight Strength B+

This is a hard group to rate, finishing at the 18th rated group

• Inside info on o-line batte from Perna’s recent podcast
• Continuity
• The biggest strength of this group is that the interior goes 4 men deep. Cushenberry III, Meinerz, Risner are all proven quantities that should start the season up front. In the wings is Graham Glasgow, who would start today for many O-Lines around the league. The addition of Billy Turner gives them more depth and options in case of injury.
• Garrett Bolles finally has a man worth truly protecting, if he can keep his positive trend of reducing holding penalties going, he could be an All-Pro this year.

Pass catchers - Strength A

After playing under a Pat Shurmur offense where WRs prayed to get more than two targets a game, a room of high-potential players may finally be able to show us what they’re made of now that Ol’ Shurm is out the door and reliable quarterback play is back on the menu. Based on previous production the skeptics among those reading may think this is too high a grade but the reality is that these guys can play and would be a welcome addition to any WR room in the entire NFL spots 1-3 on the depth chart.

It also must be noted how clutch GM George Patton played things by signing our WR1 and 2 to extensions last fall before the Kirkification of the market. Per Broncos Wire

“Sutton signed a four-year $60.8 million contract that averages $15.2 million per season. Patrick agreed to a three-year, $30 million contract that’s worth an average of $10 million per year. So the Broncos have Sutton and Patrick under contract through 2024 for a combined average of about $25.2 million per season.”

25 million a season? That’s a buy-one-get-one deal I can get behind. And like any good Walmart man worth his salt, Patton took those savings to free agency and got himself Great Value Gregory from Dallas.

• Courtland Sutton is an outstanding player that has not been in ideal situations to begin his career. His ability to go up and use his size to snag 50/50 balls is a joy to watch, and his downfield, vertical playmaking ability kept the Broncos in a lot of games. The WR1 showed great promise his rookie year and then followed up on that promise by putting up over 1000 yards and being named to the Pro Bowl during his sophomore effort. And that was while catching passes from Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, and Brandon Allen, among others (now back-ups, all of them). However, after missing all but one game of the 2020 season with a torn ACL, Sutton never looked fully recovered last season, lacking a little of the explosiveness that makes him special. Now another year removed from injury, with a new offensive-minded coaching staff and the most reliable QB-play he’s had in his NFL career, it’s fair to expect Sutton to reach new heights and potentially even establish himself as one of the leagues best pass catchers.
• Tim Patrick, Mr. Reliable (Note: he just tore his ACL but I'm leaving this in because he deserves a spotlight.)
  • Tim Patrick might not be a household name, but he’s been a bright spot for Broncos Country since his arrival. The same 6-foot 4-inch height as Sutton, Patrick is a go-up-and-get-it kind of player. Even with sub-par QB play, Patrick has shown he has some of the surest hands in the league – 8 drops against 236 targets in his career, with only four since his rookie season, and none at all in 2020. The bottom line: if the ball is coming Timmy’s way, he’s going to get it. With the attention opposing defenses will have to give Sutton and Jeudy, Patrick will have plenty of opportunities for big plays.
• Jerry Jeudy poised for breakout year. Make or break season?
  • Jeudy came into the league with an absolutely stacked draft of WR talent in 2020. I never even allowed myself to get to high on him, sure that he would be gone before Denver picked at 13. But lo and behold, Las Vegas selected Ruggs at number 12, leaving the choice to Denver to select CeeDee Lamb, Jeudy, Jalen Reagor, or Justin Jefferson. Jeudy’s frankly unbelievable route running made it an easy choice, but the transition into the NFL hasn’t been the smoothest. His bevy of quarterbacks in his first two seasons struggled to hit him accurately despite his ability to get open, and ten drops his rookie year raised questions about his hands. He caught some bad breaks in 2021, too. An early ankle injury meant he was only on the field for ten games, and when he was playing Pat Shurmer seemed to think the best use of his talent was to run fake jet sweeps a dozen times a game (reports say that because of Jeudy’s position in Shurmur’s system he was rarely supposed to run routes beyond ten yards. Not ideal). Now entering year three with only one drop last season, Jeudy is ready to silence the doubters and live up to the hype. With Russ at quarterback, everything could turn around for Jerry, and this may finally be the season Broncos Country sees him achieve his potential.
• Man, watching KJ Hamler go down at the beginning of last season with an ACL tear was a heartbreaker. KJ brings electricity to the locker room and he’s absolutely lightning on the field. His speed and ability to blow past opposing defenses should make him a prime target for the patented Wilson MoonBall, but as we saw with Sutton last year, an ACL is no quick comeback. If Hamler is ready to return to form this year, I expect him to be a sneaky favorite target of Russ even as #4 on the depth chart.

Tight Ends - Albert O and Dulcich Weakness C-

• There’s not a lot one could point to that would say we can expect a big year from the Broncos' tight ends. Historically the Broncos have used TEs very little, just like Wilson has thrown to them little. Noah Fant is also gone as part of the Wilson trade, and the promising-if--poorly-used player fans have watched develop over the last few years is gone. Still, Albert Okwuegbunam showed flashes of being able to do much of what Fant did – using his height to make contested catches. Hopefully, Okwuegbunam can provide that and prove to be a better blocker than Fant.
• Greg Dulcich was the second player drafted by the Broncos this year. The UCLA player is quick on his feet and a downfield pass catcher, but I wouldn’t expect him to make a lot of consistent noise this year, given his position on the depth chart. Phenomenal hair, too.

DL - Strength B+

• Replacing Shelby Harris - I am going to miss this man so much. An absolute joy to watch in interviews and a huge locker room presence in addition to holding down the front line. D.J Jones will come in to fill that spot but it still hurts to see Shelby leave. It was a good validation of his value that he's been good enough that the Seahawks wanted him in the Russ trade.
• Mike Purcell and Dre'Mont Jones will hold down the other spots on the 3-4 defensive front. We will probably see quite a few looks where Chubb/Gregory come in to rush from the edges on passing downs. Relegating Purcell to early down work.

LB - Slight Weakness C+ (Health related concerns)

• This is the first season since 2011 the Broncos will be entering camp without future HOFer Von Miller. The Broncos feel comfortable enough with a Bradley Chubb/Gregory pairing to keep a pass rushing presence up in Von’s absence. There is just one problem, Chubb is made of glass. Since his sensational rookie year, he hasn't managed a full season: coming close in 2020 with 14 games played. 2019/2021 he played in 4 and 7 games respectively. If he can't stay on the field, the Broncos pass rush is in serious jeopardy. This is a contract year for him, if he balls out he will be next in line for a massive payday.
• Jewell looked great last season before pec injury. A solid if unspectacular force on the linebacking core. Struggles in pass coverage but a beast against the run, usually leads the team in tackles in many games.
• Baron Browning - Its been rumored coming out of camp that the Broncos defensive staff is convinced he has pass rushing ability. Keep an eye on that as we enter the season.
• Consider this as a major factor in evaluating both the DL and Linebacking corps, playing with a lead does wonders for how you can rush the passer.

Secondary - Strength B

• The Broncos secondary has some exceptional talent that hides some holes. Justin Simmons is a Pro-Bowler with exceptional vision and a mind for the game, and has been the heart and soul of the locker room for years now. With an offense hopefully allowing him to play with a lead later in games, his interceptions could go up and hopefully he finally gets the credit that much of the media withholds from him. He has been robbed the last few years in All-Pro voting. Backing him up is Kareem Jackson, back on the team with another one year deal. I expected KJAX to move in free agency, but oh boy am I glad he’s back, because when Jackson lays a hit in Mile High you can hear it all the way in Fort Collins. He brings fire and intensity to the defense, something every unit needs.
• The Broncos spent their 2021 first round draft pick on Patrick Surtain II, and it already feels like he’s the franchise guy. Hall of Fame cornerback Champ Bailey said: "People tell me he reminds them of me, and I'm like, 'He reminds me of me, too.'" PS2 showed up to the pros polished, professional, and ready to make big plays. Surtain finished last season with 58 tackles, four interceptions, and only surrendered one play over 20 yards.
• Outside those three, there are question marks.

Special Teams C

• Can’t really be worse than it was under the previous regime
• McManus will continue to hold the fort down as K.
• Sam Martin/Corliss Waitman will battle it out for P in camp. Keeping in mind that the thin Denver air is a punters dream.

Schedule Predictions

2022 Schedule

Week Opponent Projected W/L

1 at SEA W
2 HOU W

3 SF W

4 at LV L

5 IND W

6 at LAC L

7 NYJ W

8 at JAX W

9 BYE

10 at TEN W

11 LV W

12 at CAR W

13 at BAL L

14 KC W

15 AZ W

16 at LAR L

17 at KC L
18 LAC W

The new look Broncos take advantage of some easy games against teams that finished in the bottom 10 last season to roll to 12-5, good for first in the division. Its nearly impossible to sweep this division, unless you are the legendary 2010 6-10 Raiders. For simplicities sake and not have a BOLD prediction haunt my reddit history, I'm calling it an even 3-3 split in the division and taking the easy cop out that everyone wins at home. I saw the Raiders writers predict that this team is overrated and there is an absolute risk of that. However, simply returning the same defense with even a top 15 QB spells playoff bound. With the capital invested in Wilson and a clear clock on this team, anything below an AFC Championship appearance would be a failure for this team. I see it as Broncos/Bills for that game and pray I'm correct. This comes down to Wilson giving the Broncos a top 10 offense and the defense keeping their status as a solid group.