We all know that advanced stats have their issues, but some traditional stats are even worse. Just because they're easy to understand doesn't mean that they tell us anything interesting. The worst offender is individual rebounding numbers, which have bothered me for years.
Individual rebounding numbers say nothing about whether the player makes the team more likely to gain a rebound. We end up celebrating the players that fight their own teammates for the ball (or, the stars that have an agreement with their teammates that they get all the uncontested rebounds).
Even “advanced” rebounding stats aren’t much better. Stats like Rebound Percentage tell us the percentage of rebounds an individual player grabs during the minutes they’re on the court, but nothing about how those help the team. If a player is amazing at boxing out, I think they should get some credit for the rebounds they helped create.
I decided to take a stab at solving this. I wanted to figure out how a player’s minutes on the court impacted the team’s rebounding rate, so I came up with a stat (well, three of them) that does just that.
Rebounding contribution percentage (RC%), offensive rebounding contribution percentage (oRC%), and defensive rebounding contribution percentage (dRC%) show the percentage of total, offensive, and defensive rebounds that your team can expect to win just by having a particular player on the court.
Learn more about how it works, or skip ahead to see which players look better and which look worse!
Methodology
TL;DR: My computer pretended it had no idea what players were good rebounders, then watched the 2021-2022 season a bunch of times in a row, slowly noticing which players were on the court when their teams came up with a lot of rebounds.
First, I randomly assigned a starting “rebound skill” value to all players*. Next, I ran through every single rebound that happened during the 2021-2022 season and gave points to the team that won the rebound. A rebound was worth more if the opposing players on the court were good at rebounding (high “rebound skill” values) and worth less if they were bad (low “rebound skill” values).
The points then got split among the team’s players based on their current “rebound skill” value. After simulating the entire season, I calculated new “rebound skill” values based on the number of points each player received last time. Using these new values, I simulated the entire season again (and again, and again) until the values converged.
*The starting value doesn’t matter. I re-ran this a bunch of times with different starting values, and the ending values are the same no matter what.
Criticisms
A. It’s impossible to objectively distinguish between players in the minutes they share the court. This means that players frequently sharing the court with great rebounders will look better than they are (and great rebounders on terrible rebounding teams will look worse).
B. Many rebounds aren’t contested, and will “randomly” go to whoever is nearby. This sets a floor for how low this stat can get.
C. With A and B combined, it means this stat understates the difference in impact. I’d be willing to bet a significant amount of money that Steven Adams is more than 15% better at rebounding than Ben McLemore. I feel reasonably confident in the rankings this stat generates, but I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into the percentage values themselves.
D. Other factors can significantly impact these stats. Most notably, some teams strategically ignore offensive rebounds in order to get back on defense. That doesn’t make their players worse at offensive rebounding.
Results
Without further ado, here’s what I found. All leaderboards only include players that were on the court for 2000 or more rebound opportunities = roughly 1000 minutes played.:
Note that the average total percentage is exactly 10.0 (100% divided by the ten players on the court), while offensive and defensive averages are about 6.2% and 14.1%, respectively.
Best Defensive Rebound Contributors
A lot of good individual rebounders show up here, along with 6’2” (!) Dame and 6’4” Grayson Allen. I’ll investigate whether these should be believed further down.
| Player | dRC% |
|---|---|
| 1. Kristaps Porzingis (DAL, WAS) | 15.09% |
| 2. Jusuf Nurkic (POR) | 15.07% |
| 3. Domantas Sabonis (IND, SAC) | 14.98% |
| 4. Damian Lillard (POR) | 14.97% |
| 5. Jrue Holiday (MIL) | 14.92% |
| 6. Jonas Valanciunas (NOP) | 14.90% |
| 7. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) | 14.88% |
| 8. Grayson Allen (MIL) | 14.78% |
| 9. Nikola Jokic (DEN) | 14.78% |
| 10. Troy Brown Jr. (CHI) | 14.76% |
Best Offensive Rebound Contributors
Four Grizzlies, three of them 6’5” or below (Morant, Konchar, and Melton). Memphis led the league in offensive rebounds by a large margin, so this isn’t too surprising, but I’ll investigate whether they pass further scrutiny below. Also three Raptors, who were second in the league. Not sure if these teams go for offensive rebounds because their players are good at it, or if their players look good at offensive rebounding because they prioritize them.
| Player | oRC% |
|---|---|
| 1. Steven Adams (MEM) | 7.32% |
| 2. Chris Boucher (TOR) | 7.10% |
| 3. Jalen Smith (PHO, IND) | 7.06% |
| 4. Khem Birch (TOR) | 7.05% |
| 5. Ja Morant (MEM) | 7.03% |
| 6. John Konchar (MEM) | 7.00% |
| 7. Hassan Whiteside (UTA) | 6.98% |
| 8. Precious Achiuwa (TOR) | 6.95% |
| 9. De’Anthony Melton (MEM) | 6.93% |
| 10. Oshae Brissett (IND) | 6.90% |
Best Total Rebound Contributors
A bunch of really good rebounders, the aforementioned Morant, and… Jordan Clarkson? Playing with three of the best rebounders in the league definitely helps, but I’ll try to untangle Clarkson’s influence below.
| Player | RC%. |
|---|---|
| 1. Steven Adams (MEM) | 10.96% |
| 2. Hassan Whiteside (UTA) | 10.81% |
| 3. Nikola Jokic (DEN) | 10.74% |
| 4. Ja Morant (MEM) | 10.74% |
| 5. JaVale McGee (PHO) | 10.71% |
| 6. Rudy Gobert (UTA) | 10.70% |
| 7. Aaron Gordon (DEN) | 10.65% |
| 8. Kevon Looney (GSW) | 10.65% |
| 9. Jordan Clarkson (UTA) | 10.64% |
| 10. Jrue Holiday (MIL) | 10.64% |
Worst Defensive Rebound Contributors
Just a bunch of random names here. No one particularly known for their rebounding prowess though, so no shame. Two Nets top the list, even though Brooklyn was middle of the pack in defensive rebounding as a team.
| Player | dRC% |
|---|---|
| 1. James Johnson (BRK) | 13.25% |
| 2. Nic Claxton (BRK) | 13.30% |
| 3. Josh Christopher (HOU) | 13.32% |
| 4. Taurean Prince (MIN) | 13.32% |
| 5. Naz Reid (MIN) | 13.41% |
| 6. Ben McLemore (POR) | 13.46% |
| 7. DeAndre’ Bembry (BRK, MIL) | 13.46% |
| 8. Kenyon Martin Jr. (HOU) | 13.50% |
| 9. Jalen McDaniels (CHO) | 13.50% |
| 10. Ish Smith (CHO, WAS) | 13.50% |
Worst Offensive Rebound Contributors
A few surprising names at the top of this list! Embiid and Vucevic spend more time on the perimeter than other centers, so those make some sense to me, but I’ve got no idea why Ayton is so low. Any Suns fans care to comment? Does Phoenix just ignore offensive rebounds entirely?
| Player | oRC% |
|---|---|
| 1. Deandre Ayton (PHO) | 4.91% |
| 2. Joel Embiid (PHI) | 5.12% |
| 3. Nikola Vucevic (CHI) | 5.14% |
| 4. Jae Crowder (PHO) | 5.20% |
| 5. Blake Griffin (BRK) | 5.28% |
| 6. Lonzo Ball (CHI) | 5.28% |
| 7. Zach LaVine (CHI) | 5.29% |
| 8. Nicolas Batum (LAC) | 5.30% |
| 9. Tyrese Maxey (PHI) | 5.41% |
| 10. Theo Maledon (OKC) | 5.43% |
Worst Total Rebound Contributors
A lot of young players and journeymen here, so I don’t want to shame anyone.
| Player | RC% |
|---|---|
| 1. Ben McLemore (POR) | 9.53% |
| 2. Taurean Prince (MIN) | 9.56% |
| 3. Naz Reid (MIN) | 9.58% |
| 4. Frank Jackson (DET) | 9.66% |
| 5. Damian Jones (SAC) | 9.69% |
| 6. Hamidou Diallo (DET) | 9.71% |
| 7. Nicolas Batum (LAC) | 9.73% |
| 8. Killian Hayes (DET) | 9.75% |
| 9. Trey Lyles (DET, SAC) | 9.76% |
| 10. Matisse Thybulle (PHI) | 9.76% |
Other Fun Findings
Low Minute Positive Outliers
I’ll call out a few players that have great numbers, but not enough minutes to qualify for the leaderboards above.
- Markief Morris would shoot up to #1 overall in 298 minutes (10.97 RC%).
- 6’4” Trent Forrest comes in shockingly high at #3 overall in 765 minutes (10.88 RC%).
- Derrick Favors and Brook Lopez top the defensive list in injury-shortened seasons (15.53 dRC% and 15.27 dRC%, respectively)
- Energetic young players take over the top offensive spots if you ignore minutes played. See:
- Paul Reed (7.92 oRC%)
- Justin Champagnie (7.67 oRC%)
- Santi Aldama (7.43 oRC%)
- David Duke Jr. (7.30 oRC%)
- Also, shout out to Tristan Thompson, who came in above Adams at 7.45 oRC% but barely missed the cutoff with 897 minutes played.
Low Minute Negative Outliers
…and a couple players that didn’t have enough minutes to qualify for the anti-leaderboards:
- In contrast to his cousin Dame (see below), Keljin Blevins is not underrated at rebounding. He comes in dead last in his 349 minutes (8.99 RC%).
- Semi Ojeleye comes in right behind at 9.17 RC% in 406 minutes.
- Keon Johnson and Thanasis Antetokounmpo come in last on the defensive end with 12.58 dRC% each.
- Paul Reed is third worst on the defensive side, but best overall on the offensive side. Any Philly fans know what’s going on there?
- Joe Harris takes the last spot on the offensive end when you ignore minutes played with an exceedingly low 4.45 oRC%.
Unexpectedly Positive Contributors (A.K.A. Selfless Rebound Givers)
These are players who scored much better in this stat than their conventional rebound numbers would suggest. I added some commentary about whether these new numbers should be believed.
- Dame (3.6 DRB per 36, but 14.97 dRC%) - I definitely didn’t expect to see Lillard this high! Unfortunately, I think this one is a mirage. He played more than 60% of his 1000 minutes with Nurkic this year, which would make anyone look better. Plus, lineups with Nurkic + Smith Jr. or Nurkic + Snell rebounded even better (Nurkic + McCollum was just slightly worse).
- Jrue Holiday (3.8 DRB per 36, but 14.92 dRC%) and Grayson Allen (3.8 DRC per 36, but 14.78 dRC%) - Almost identical numbers for these two players, but different conclusions. Holiday did play a lot of minutes with Giannis and/or Lopez, but his lineups rebounded very well even without either of those players. On the other hand, Allen played almost 70% of his minutes with Giannis, and his numbers got a lot worse without Giannis helping out.
- John Konchar, Ja Morant, De’Anthony Melton, Desmond Bane (2.4, 1.5, 1.4, and 0.7 ORB per 36, but huge oRC% from all four) - Man, Memphis was fun this year! All of these guys are definitely getting carried by Steven Adams (who grabbed a league leading 6.3 ORB per 36), but pretty much every lineup pulled down a ton of offensive boards. Adams + Konchar grabbed a particularly insane 42% of offensive rebounds! Adams + Morant led the league by getting 56% of all rebounds!
- Jordan Clarkson (4.6 TRB per 36, but 10.64% RC%) - Utah was a great rebounding team overall last year with both Gobert and Whiteside, but it looks like Clarkson should get some credit as well. Lineups with Clarkson were significantly better than league average (and also notably better than similar lineups with Mitchell instead).
Unexpectedly Negative Contributors (A.K.A. Selfish Rebound Hogs)
And here are a few who look a bit worse with these stats than their existing reputation:
- Andre Drummond (11.3 DRB per 36, but a below-average 13.9% dRC%) - Almost every single player with high rebounding numbers scored pretty well on these stats, except Drummond. I don’t want to slander him too much, since lineups featuring Drummond rebounded at a slightly above average rate (in both PHI and BRK). But I think it’s fair to say that Drummond doesn’t improve the team as much as his eye-popping numbers would suggest.
- Rudy Gobert (12.3 DRB per 36, and 14.33% dRC%) - Lineups featuring Gobert are significantly better than league average at defensive rebounding, so this is pretty mild criticism. But he still pulls in more for himself than he gives to his teammates.
- Deandre Ayton (3.1 ORB per 36, and last in the league 4.91% oRC) - Ayton actually pulls in a good number of offensive rebounds for himself (28th in the league), so I don’t know what’s going on here. And it’s supported by other stats - lineups with Ayton bring in an insanely low number of offensive rebounds, especially compared to lineups with McGee, which are a good bit above league average.
Thanks for reading this novel! Let me know if you have thoughts on the stat, or other questions you want answered.
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