32 Teams 32 Days 2022-23 NFL Season
Team: New England Patriots
Record: 8-9, Third in AFC East
Playoffs: No, eliminated Week 18
Greetings one and all, and welcome to 32 Teams in 32 Days: 2022 Season Review for the New England Patriots. This year was a wild one with crazy coaching, bizarre endings, and plot twists you would not believe. This year's Star Wars comparison is The Last Jedi: A plotline with no connections to the previous season, a record going nowhere, and hopefully for the Patriots, character drama ignored next season. Also for the Patriots, the only comparison to Rise of Skywalker I want to make next year is "Somehow, Palpatine returned". Everything in that movie sucked.
Back on track; My name is Bluethingamajig, and I am back again leading the charge for 32/32 Patriots for the second straight year, and fifth year overall. This year, I am joined by u/ecupatsfan12 and u/SpaceGhost1992. Thank you greatly for your contributions and assistance to this project. And as always, I would like to thank 10hmacarena for the opportunity to write.
This Patriots season was a mix of ups and downs. Compared to last year, there was a lack of extremes. Last year saw wins with 50-burgers but also losses without ever forcing a punt. This year did not have the blowout wins, but also the Patriots did not shit the bed against Buffalo. Arguably. So long as we exclude the kickoff returns.
Without any further ado, let us begin. This document sprawled out to 15,000 words. I hope you enjoy it.
Directory
Main Post
The Season
Quick Questions
Cheers and Jeers
Highlights and Lowlights - All Writers
2022 Roster Changes- ecupatsfan12
Season Statistics - Spaceghost1992
Roster Review - ecupatsfan12
Separate Comments
Game Recaps
Coaching Review
A Look to the Future
-2023 Free Agency
-Team Needs
-2023 Draft - ecupatsfan12
-Schedule Predictions
-Conclusions
An Abridged Story
Patriots fans began the year with a mix of optimism and pessimism. Last year, I predicted 9+ wins, noting "it will be a challenge for the Patriots to make it back to 10 wins and beyond". Although I believed in the talent of the players and coaching of BB, it was abundantly clear that the offense would likely be worse having lost the last of offensive coaches. In a far too brief summary, the offense changed coaches but not players while the defense changed players but not coaches.
The defense made drastic changes in classic Belichick style. Fans, pundits, and Personnel Director Groh all noted the lack of speed in linebackers and thin secondary. So Bill picked up a handful of quicker linebacker/box safety types that never quite fit in with their original teams, and drafted a pair of CBs. Ultimately, the Patriots began the regular season with massive question marks on the offense and an exciting, rejuvenated defense.
This resulted in an uncomfortable season. In the beginning, the offense lacked precision and consistency. The defense, while performing well, could not single-handedly win every game. The Patriots stumbled to a 1-2 start and Mac got injured. After a third loss, things would get better for the middle. Enter Bailey Zappe. He zapped all over the Browns and Lions. Mac returned and after a loss to the Bears, the Patriots won three more in a row. At 6-4, this was the most optimistic Patriots fans would be.
Still, the limits of the team were apparent. We were in the same conversation as teams like the Broncos, Jets, and Steelers: Strong defense and weak offense. The Patriots went 2-4 down the stretch. Three close losses featured the Patriots shooting themselves in the foot.
Going into Week 18 at 8-8, the Patriots had to win in Buffalo to make the playoffs. Technically, the Pats could lose so long as the Browns and Jets both won. However, I want you to slap yourself thrice if you thought for a single second to rely on both the Browns and Jets to win a game. The Bills had the power of friendship, scriptwriters, and the better team on their side. The Browns and Jets both lost their games, because of course they did, and the Patriots missed the playoffs.
Three Quick Questions
Did the Patriots play like an 8-9 team?
The 8-9 record accurately represents how good the team was. The "true" performance of the Patriots team was about 8.5 wins. The Patriots went 5-4 in one-score games and had a slightly positive point differential. Record in one-score games is fundamentally a measure of a team's luck and trends to .500, and most importantly does not have any predictive ability for the next year. A team with a good or bad one-score game record is by far the easiest team to pick for regression (i.e. Vikings, Broncos). The 5-4 one-score game record suggests the Pats were .5 games lucky and combines with the slightly positive points differential suggesting the Pats should be 9-8. The Patriots earned their record as is.
What the hell happened with the coaches?
All the coaches left for other teams. I'll borrow this quote from The Athletic:
Over a span of 14 months starting at the conclusion of the 2020 season, Belichick lost his offensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach, running backs coach, wide receivers coach and offensive line coach, as well as trusted assistant Ernie Adams...including departures of Nick Caserio and Dave Ziegler, Belichick lost more than 150 years of experience working with him
This quote excludes the coaches that went with Flores to Miami a few years earlier. There is a profound dearth of coaching talent remaining on the offensive side, and even the defensive side felt bare. Recall that Steve Belichick as defensive play caller is not nepotism, he is the most experienced defensive coach on the team.
The offense coaching is Nick Caley and Troy Brown. I like Troy as a person and player, but he has yet to show any meaningful coaching chops. And Nick Caley, despite receiving multiple OC interviews, was deemed not ready by BB. Most importantly, Belichick’s first pick for OC (Bill O’Brien) was still under contract in Alabama. Essentially, this year was BB knowing the coaching roles were stopgaps yet hoping it might turn out okay.
So why Patricia? Well, he was available.
Launch Matt Patricia into the sun
Not a question. Nevertheless, Belichick clearly was not willing to hire outside the organization before grabbing Bill O’Brien for 2023. As a result, there was Caley, Patricia, or Judge to be offensive play caller. Neither Caley nor Judge rose to the occasion. Knowing that Patricia would not last beyond the season, the offense would have a clean slate to bring in a proper OC this offseason. Patricia was set up for failure, even if he did himself no favors.
Let's not pretend Patricia was the sole fault with the offense. Matt Patricia isn't the one who committed 104 penalties. Matt Patricia isn't the one who gave up on routes. The Patriots offense was not the worst, nor second worst, nor even bottom ten in many statistical categories. Strictly as a play caller, he was okay. It's trendy to blame Patricia. I understand that it is a time-honored tradition and responsibility for fans to overreact. But please try not to confuse r/nfl shitposting with reality.
Cheers and Jeers
Some quick callouts for those who deserve your attention going forwards, for good or ill.
Three cheers for...
Marcus, Jack, and Jonathan Jones, Ja'Whaun Bentley, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Michael Onwenu.
These guys are, in my opinion, the best performers on the team. The Jones CBs quickly built themselves as a new elite corps of defenders, and Marcus Jones showed up in offense and special teams as well. Former 5th round pick Ja'Whaun Bentley is playing himself into a shiny third contract. He has a leadership attitude and puts in the work. Last year, he improved to ‘pretty good LB’, and this year improved again to very good LB. At one point, he was top-10 on PFF’s LB rankings.
You might recall Rhamondre for two bad plays in the back half of the year. That discredits how he was carrying the offense all year long. The way he can fight through tackles, sneak through gaps, and block linebackers when on protection duty makes him one of the best RBs in the league. And finally, Michael Onwenu is an elite OL at multiple positions.
Three jeers for...
Isaiah Wynn, Cameron Achord, Jonnu Smith, and Matt Patricia.
Wynn is a career left tackle and is good when healthy. This year, he chose not to attend voluntary offseason workouts so he got shunted to right tackle based on availability, where he was bad. And then got injured. Again. In his 4-year career, he has missed 24 games to injury. Achord is the Patriots Special Teams coordinator. The Patriots had the 32nd ranked special teams by DVOA this year. Sure, Bailey was injured, but giving up two kickoff TDs in a win-and-in game against the Bills is inexcusable on part of players and coaches. I pray that Joe Judge will reclaim the coordinator role for 2023. Jonnu has made zero impact in games over two years; hopefully BOB will finally get him involved.
And of course, Matt Patricia. Yes, I defended Patricia above, but I do not actually think he was a good offensive coach. He is a bad OC and was a terrible HC for the Lions. Just because there are mitigating factors or that some other teams had it worse does not justify how bad the Patriots offense was.
Team Highlights and Lowlights
The NFL is an entertainment product. Here are the highlights we, the writers, loved watching, as well as the lowlights we would prefer not to see ever again.
Highlights
Bluethingamajig: In a week 11 offensive performance that impressed nobody, the Patriots and Jets slugged it out to a 3-3 draw with 26 seconds left. The Jets punted.
Ecupatsfan12: Beating the Browns and Lions, and being competitive with the Vikings and Bills.
Spaceghost1992: Lions game. With a less than stellar start to the season. It was good seeing a goose-egg on the opposing team’s scoreboard. Sweeping the Jets is a close second.
Lowlights
Bluethingamajig: The Cincinnati game. This game perfectly represented the 2022 Patriots season: A bad start against good teams, a strong middle powered by good defense, and when on the cusp of victory, fumbling it all away. In an alternate universe, the Patriots were “on to Cincinnati” and won.
Ecupatsfan12: Jakobi Meyers lateral and the whole Matt Patricia/Joe Judge debacle.
Spaceghost1992: Week 12, Vikings, Hunter Henry call in the middle of the third quarter. One bad play call doesn't decide the outcome, but this match felt winnable.
Mac Jones showed some flashes of brilliance after a rough start to the season and the defense played well. Sure, the Vikings received a lot of criticism throughout the year--the validity of which isn’t for me to say--but they were still one of the top teams in the league. A win here on the road would have been a strong morale boost and possibly what we needed to squeak into a wildcard appearance.
2022 Roster Changes (Draft and Free Agency)
Written by ecupatsfan12
2022 NFL Draft Recap
Round 1 Pick 29- Cole Strange- Guard- UT Chattanooga- This pick shocked me and the football world out of our collective minds. I had Cole going to Tampa Bay in the top of the third round. It wouldn’t have surprised me if we took him at the end of the 2nd round but in fact we drafted him at the end of the first. Cole went through the typical rookie growing pains in the NFL with some very high highs and some low lows. He earned a PFF grade of 55 in his first year in New England- Grade B+
Round 2 Pick 18- Tyquan Thornton-WR-Baylor- TQ was mocked to us in the fourth round and I agreed with the pick and projection so I was less hurt that he went to us mid second round. Tyquan had a similar grade to Cole but it comes with a caveat of our offensive woes and him missing half the season with a broken collarbone. Tyquan flashed outstanding speed and I feel very confident in his ability to produce with the ball in his hands. With refinement in his routes and hands- I look for Tyquan to double his stats and produce a solid 2023 season. Grade- B.
Round 3- pick 21- Marcus Jones- Corner- Houston- My personal favorite pick- I saw him as a potential slot corner and was instantly hooked on him with the ball in his hands. He was a dynamic player with the ball in his hands and I felt that he could play outside corner, inside corner or either safety. He caused me to feel a way inside I haven’t felt since watching Deebo Samuel tape. Needless to say I was ecstatic we picked him. He did not disappoint- making his impact felt on all 3 sides of the ball. He tallied two picks on the year with 34 solo tackles- ran a punt back for a walk off win at the Jets- overshadowed by the career altering answer of “No” by Zach Wilson- and even caught a TD against the Bills. I could go on but you get the point here. Grade A+
Round 4 Pick 16- Jack Jones- Corner- ASU A physical man corner-who was slated to fill JC Jackson's role. Jack burst onto the scene intercepting a wayward pass from Mr Ayuascha himself for a TD against the Pack. Jack got another pick on the year and tallied 25 solo tackles. However- he came to us with character concerns from college and spent the last few weeks of the year suspended with his play time fluctuating to sparse snaps against Arizona. The skill set is apparent here- but Mr Jones’ attitude must improve moving forward- Grade C
Round 4 Pick 22- RB Pierre Strong SDSU I was pleasantly surprised that we picked Pierre- I had him going to San Francisco where I thought he would feast. Pierre primarily played on special teams but got ten carries for 100 yards and a touchdown. Most running backs besides Rhamondre don’t typically play their first year here- so I will hold off on a grade until next year.
Round 4 Pick 32- Bailey Zappe QB-WKU- After obliterating Joe Burrow’s passing records in a stellar 2021 campaign for the Hilltoppers Bailey was my top choice to be Mac’s backup this year. Bailey played up to snuff- throwing for 781 yards with 5 TD against 3 picks. I won't rehash the biopic in roster updates- but I am very happy with Bailey and expect him to have a long and fruitful career with the best job in America- back up QB. Grade A-
Round 6 Pick 4- Kevin Harris RB- USC As previously mentioned, Mr Harris primarily redshirted with his draft classmate Pierre Strong. Kevin rushed for 52 yards on eighteen touches with a singular touch down. As previously mentioned- Mr Harris needs to work on his speed and his hands out of the backfield and he figures to be the spell for Rhamondre’s power in 2023- but his draft grade remains incomplete
Round 6 Sam Roberts DT- NW Missouri State A D2 All American-we figured this was Bill’s small school guy on the defensive line. Roberts made the team which is a huge accomplishment for a rookie but received minimal playing time. As previously mentioned- he looks to receive a MUCH bigger role in 2023 moving forward- Grade incomplete
The Patriots selected Chasen Hines and Andrew Stuebner with their last two picks in the sixth and seventh round respectively. Both will be interior depth pieces this year- I see Stuebner playing a much more prominent role than Hines. LaBryan Ray, Brendan Schooler, and DeMarcus Mitchell were UDFA’s that were on the active roster for periods of this past year and look to be on the roster for next year moving forward.
2022 draft grade-right now (B+)
2022 Free Agent Review
Notable Additions
Mack Wilson (ILB) Mr Wilson came to us via trade from the franchise in Cleveland. Mr Wilson shared ILB duties with Juwuan Bentley tallying 36 combined tackles on the year. Bentley is the better player against the run and Wilson against the pass. However- we are migrating to a largely positionless defense with myriad hybrid players and I expect Wilson to duplicate last year's results.
Jabrill Peppers Mr Peppers signed with us after missing the majority of 2021 with injuries. Peppers was a fantastic option at safety for us and tallied sixty combined tackles. Jabrill has a nose for the football and is in large part our rover. I see Jabrill being resigned for 2 more seasons and tallying 65 tackles with 2 picks in 2023.
Ty Montgomery Ty came to us to be a special teams wizard- he looked to have the passing back role locked down prior to injury. Because he is up in age and a very inexpensive cut I don’t see Montgomery coming back next year.
Devante Parker Mr Parker came to us via a trade from the Dolphins and immediately blossomed as our deep threat. I look for another year in NE to pay off tremendously and Parker to tally 47 receptions for 732 yards and 5 TDs.
Departures
Chase Winovich- Mr Winovich played for a couple of disappointing seasons in New England- Chase had a good ability to rush the passer but struggled immensely to learn the variations of his role (the Judon Role) which is the hardest position on the team. He wound up being swapped to the Browns for Mr Wilson.
JC Jackson Mr Jackson departed New England after several years of top tier CB play for a big pay day with the LA Chargers. He suffered a season ending injury and we hope he recovers to the fullest extent that he can- but he struggled a lot with the scheme. Corner in New England is played differently than any other franchise- high percentage of pattern matching etc.
Gunner Olszewski The fan favorite Bemidji State product signed with the Steelers in free agency. He provided depth for the Steelers as a receiving threat and special teams ace. Ultimately with how good PIT is at turning out WR’s I don’t see him having a bigger role in the offense and wish he stayed in NE.
Ted Karras Signed with the fighting Joe Burrows up in Cincinatti to play center. He is a fantastic player and I hope he and Joe Burrow bring home the Lombardi next year if we can't.
Jakob Johnson signed with the Raiders after the offensive brain trust decided to eschew the fullback position in 2022. We missed his lead blocking tremendously-our gap scheme runs suffered immensely- but nowhere as bad as our zone runs. On zone schemes we were absolutely dreadful- surprise surprise.
Brandon Bolden The longtime special teams ace went with Jakob to join Josh McDaniels and his team as their third down back. We don’t talk about the ending to this year's Las Vegas game though.
Shaq Mason- Our longtime guard wound up going to Tampa Bay and playing in Tom Brady’s penultimate season. Shaq was the bright spot in the Buccaneers offensive line which struggled immensely to run the football- resulting in several thousands of dollars worth of tablets being destroyed.
Season Statistics
Written by SpaceGhost1992
OFFENSE
| Offensive Statistics | 2022 Value | 2022 Rank | 2021 Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 3536 | 20 ⬇️ | 14 |
| Rushing Yards | 1812 | 24 ⬇️ | 8 |
| Total Yards/Game | 314.6 | 26 ⬇️ | 15 |
| Points/Game | 21.4 | 15 ⬇️ | (6) |
| Time of Possession | 29:10 | 28 ⬇️ | 16 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 13 ⬇️ | 11 |
| Fumbles Lost | 9 | 15 ⬆️ | 23 |
| Penalties | 104 -841 yds | 9 / 11 ↔️/⬆️ | 9 / 16 |
| 3rd Down Conv | 34.9% | 27 ⬇️ | 10 |
| 4th Down Conv | 38.5% | 29 ⬇️ | 4 |
| Redzone TD % | 42.2% | 32 ⬇️ | 11 |
| Sacks Allowed | 41 | 11 ⬇️ | 4 |
| Pressures | 110 | * |
Not abysmal, but unacceptable. The team has worsened in nearly every category. Our only improvement, with fumbles, is negligible. (The team had 10 last season and 9 this season.)
Unfortunately, with respect to the work that Patricia put in for New England as a DC, he has not done any favors for his reputation around the league as a HC or as an OC. Nepotism is maybe the one major criticism I hold for Bill when it comes to this team, but no reason to dwell, this weird interim moment following the departure of Josh McDaniels is over.
Hopefully the coaching staff has had enough time to figure out what is best for the offense overall, and have found their man in Bill O’ Brien. Bringing the offensive output of this team back up to speed is of the utmost priority.
Note: There isn’t an easy way to find a league-wide ranking system for Pressures, but New England had 104 in 2021 v. 110 in 2022.
QUARTERBACKS
| Quarterback Comparison | Mac Jones 2021 | Mac Jones 2022 | Bailey Zappe 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 17 | 14 | 4 |
| Total Yards | 3801 | 2997 | 781 |
| Yards/Att | 7.3 | 6.8 | 8.5 |
| Completion | 67.6% | 65.2% | 70.7% |
| TD | 22 | 14 | 5 |
| Int | 13 | 11 | 3 |
| QBR | 56.9 | 36.2 | 34.5 |
| Passer Rating | 92.5 | 84.8 | 100.9 |
Mac Jones had a difficult sophomore season under new (and now previous) OC Mat Patricia. Some of this can be attributed to missing time from a high-ankle sprain and poor coaching, but with Bailey Zappe’s strong play during his absence, the minute details are secondary in nature.
Any major, impulsive decisions on this front would be myopic at this point, but as we all know, the NFL stands for “not for long.” Success at the position is all that matters–regardless of who sits in the driver’s seat.
I have included both QBR & QB Rating as it is a debatable topic. I personally prefer QBR and what it takes into consideration. It helps highlight Mac’s slight edge over Zappe, even if the rookie’s 4 games look flashier at first glance. An in-depth comparison of QBR vs. QB Rating can be found here.
In the end, it’s important to contextualize this season’s performances. Sophomore slumps are common in the league. Defenses get a chance to have tape on your tendencies and when you experience a change at OC every season, it’s hard to build a solid foundation. Last, but not least, Zappe’s four games were against some of the worst defenses in the league.
Considering Mac has a rapport with Bill O’ Brien–they reportedly worked together during the 2021 offseason in Alabama–we might see a return of the Mac and a competent offense. Only time will tell.
WIDE RECEIVERS
| Receivers (Top 5) | Jakobi Meyers | DeVante Parker | Hunter Henry (TE) | Kendrick Bourne | Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| Receptions | 67 | 31 | 41 | 35 | 69 |
| Total Yards | 804 | 539 | 509 | 434 | 421 |
| Yards/Game | 57.4 | 41.5 | 29.9 | 27.1 | 24.8 |
| Yards/Catch | 12.0 | 17.4 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 6.9 |
| YAC/C | 3.5 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 6.9 |
| TDs | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Our Achilles’ heel. Not a single receiver eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark and only one of the listed top-five eclipsed 600 yards. Matt Patricia’s play calling was the antithesis of friendly for the receiving corp, but blame aside, New England has to turn it around. We’d be lying to ourselves if we said that he was the sole cause of the passing game woes. Hopefully Bill O’ Brien can revitalize the air attack and address any lingering issues from the year prior. With a performance like last seasons, the Pats can only go northward in terms of improvement.
RUNNING BACKS
| Running Backs | Rhamondre Stevenson | Damien Harris | Pierre Strong | Kevin Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games Played (Starts) | 17 (7) | 11 (9) | 15 (0) | 5 (1) |
| Attempts / Yards | 201/1040 | 106/462 | 10/100 | 18/52 |
| Average | 5.0 | 4.4 | 10.0 | 2.9 |
| 20+ Yard Runs | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Yards/game (min 1 att) | 61.2 | 42.0 | 33.3 | 10.4 |
| TDs | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson have essentially flipped roles. With Harris struggling to stay healthy, and having his carries cut nearly in half (202 in 2021 to 106 in 2022), Rhamondre took the helm as workhorse for the team. Despite some unusual antics (Raiders debacle anyone?) the young duo is within / entering their prime, and the team should have nothing to worry about on this front, barring injury.
DEFENSE
| Defensive Statistics | 2022 Value | 2022 Rank | 2021 Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Yards/G | 216.5 | 16th ⬇️ | 2nd |
| Rush Yards/G | 105.5 | 6th ⬆️ | 22nd |
| Total Y/G | 322.0 | 8th ⬇️ | 4th |
| Points/G | 20.4 | 11th ⬇️ | 2nd |
| Interceptions | 19 | 2nd ↔️ | 2nd |
| Fumbles | 11 | 6th ⬆️ | 25th |
| Total Takeaways | 30 | 2nd ⬆️ | T-3rd |
| Sacks | 54 | 3rd ⬆️ | 19th |
| Pressures | 163 | 3rd ⬆️ | 21st |
The strength of this team, as it has been more often than not, for two decades.
In some instances, the team has become worse, in two areas specifically. Passing yards allowed and points-per-game; but I believe that is due to the complementary relationship that the offense and defense have. If your defenders are on the field more often than not, then cracks in their foundations begin to surface.
All-in-all, Matthew Judon has clearly been a worthwhile investment, and so have our draft choices for the last two years (Christian Barmore and Marcus Jones most notably). We continue to be a top 10 defense and hopefully improvements in other areas can lighten the weight of its responsibilities.
SPECIAL TEAMS
| Special Teams | 2022 Value | 2022 Rank | 2021 Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Punt Average | 41.7 | 32nd ⬇️ | 18 |
| Inside 20 | 22 | 10th ⬆️ | 17 |
| Punt Return | 10.7 | 6th ↔️ | 6 |
| Return TD | 1 | 1st ⬆️ | t-3 |
| Opp Punt Return | 7.9 | 9th ⬆️ | 16 |
| Opp Ret TD | 0 | 1st ↔️ | 1 |
| Kickoff Return | 23.8 | 11th ⬆️ | 18 |
| Kick Return TD | 0 | 3rd ↔️ | 9 |
| Opp Kick Ret | 25.6 | 32nd ⬇️ | 14 |
| Opp Ret TD | 3 | 32nd ⬇️ | T-1 |
| FG | 86.5% | 11th ⬇️ | 5 |
| XP | 91.4% | 20th ⬆️ | 25 |
Special teams, while not traditionally seen as glamorous, is as important as anything else to Belichick. Ask him yourself.
While our yards-per-punt might seem abysmal at first glance, that’s not a real indicator of the overall value of the special teams group. In all likelihood, it has very much to do with field position, and where the offense kicks from. Everything else has either improved, remained as is, or dropped to a non-significant degree. Our FG % could be seen as a large drop, but Folk only missed five of his 37 field goal attempts, and all of his misses were 40-yards or further out.
Roster Review
Written by ecupatsfan12
Roster Review
Note: This review excludes analysis of most of the 2023 Free Agent class.
Quarterbacks
Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, Brian Hoyer I don’t foresee a change in the status quo of the quarterback room. Mac is in his pivotal third year of his four year rookie contract, looking to rebuild from a disastrous 2022 marred by injury and coaching mishaps out of his hands. Mac is a Chad Pennington type player with good accuracy and great pocket presence albeit with a weaker arm. I see Mac rebounding strongly under Bill O Brien’s leadership and going for 4200 yards with 28 TD and 11 picks with the Patriots picking up his fifth year option.
Bailey Zappe was our fifth round pick in 2022 out of Western Kentucky. I loved his quick release and his accuracy. He burst onto the scene for a few starts in place of Mac who was ailed by a bum ankle. He lit up the Cleveland Browns and Lions in his nascent starts causing several Patriot fans to get visions of Bledsoe Brady and proclamations that he was 23 years old and a hell of a quarterback. Mac returned to his starting job as it became apparent that Bailey also has a weak arm and limited ability to push the ball down field. Nonetheless, I am very confident in Bailey and see his future to be like Josh McCown- a journey man but a VERY good back up.
Brian Hoyer is a long tenured Patriot who has been around since the mid years of the Brady Belichick dynasty. He is likely transitioning to coaching after his playing career and is serving as an emergency/de facto QB coach to the young quarterbacks, a role in which he thrives in.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson Rhamondre was our 4th round pick out of the University of Oklahoma in 2021. Rhamondre burst out onto the scene in the back half of 2021 and 2022 and tallied his first 1000 yard season this year. His dazzling start even got the ever talkative Bill Belichick to say that he loved him and even going as far as to on the record compare him to his revered Lawrence Taylor. Rhamondre in my opinion is an exception to the rule of thumb to not pay running backs after their rookie contract. He has excellent hands out of the backfield, has great speed and runs hard. I look to Rhamondre to tally 1200 yards and 13 TD in a fantastic 2023 season.
Pierre Strong Pierre was our fourth round pick out of South Dakota State this past year. Pierre primarily played on special teams this past year but got a handful of carries this year and flashed great speed. Pierre needs to work on his pass blocking and his running between the tackles. I look for Pierre to spell Rhamondre as our 3rd down back and score a handful of touchdowns this year.
Lynn Bowden Bowden is a young journeyman who spent this past year on our practice squad. Hailing from the University of Kentucky where he played every skill position possible. Lynn has gotten limited playing time- but I look for him to maybe be elevated to play on Bills beloved special teams this year.
JJ Taylor JJ has been with the Patriots for three years as an UDFA from the 2020 class. JJ has primarily played on special teams with limited time in the backfield. I see JJ and Lynn competing to be the practice squad back and on special teams. I foresee the Patriots drafting 1 running back in the 4th round and I have targeted Keaton Mitchell from ECU and Tajae Spears out of Tulane as good fits.
Kevin Harris The former Gamecock came to New England by way of the sixth round pick in the 2022 draft. Like his colleague Pierre Strong- Kevin got limited play time but showed flashes in spot duty. Kevin is a great downhill bruiser but lacks top end speed and ability to catch out of the backfield. I look to Kevin to take an expanded role in spelling Rhamondre in short yardage situations and duplicating Pierre’s production on the ground.
Damien Harris UFA
Wide Receivers
Kendrick Bourne Coming to us in Bill’s free agency splurge of 2021 via San Francisco, Bourne flourished in his first year with Mac Jones and quickly became a fan favorite. Bourne- like most members of the offense- was puzzled over our coaching situation and drew the ire of the much maligned Matt Patricia. Kendrick spent part of the year effectively banished from the team and got limited play time in 2022 much to the chagrin of Patriots fans and Bob Kraft. I look for Bourne to have a fantastic 2023 season and rebuild that the dead weight of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge has been removed.
Devante ParkerComing to us via trade last year- Devante assumed the position of X receiver and the jersey number of Patriots legend N’keal Harry. Devante has an outstanding ability to win jump balls and to box out defenders and was one of the few to gel with whomever was throwing him the ball. I look for Devante to have another great season this year.
Tyquan Thornton Our second round pick from last year, Tyquan was slowed by the Patricia and Judge clown car and suffered a shoulder injury in preseason. Tyquan returned midseason and flashed his outstanding speed and good route running. Tyquan did struggle with some drops but I think he will overcome this and be our deep threat this year. He must bulk up and get stronger to survive in the NFL long term.
Nelson Agholor UFA
Jakobi Meyers UFA
Matthew Slater Re-signed
Ty Montgomery The journeyman jack of all trades, Ty is listed as a receiver which he played at Stanford- he has bounced from RB to WR in the NFL. I see Ty likely getting the role of Matthew Slater of special teams stalwart if he does choose to retire.
Raleigh Webb We poached him via the Ravens practice squad this year and he is another hybrid type player. He was a standout at the Citadel and I know that Bill would like to use him as an H back type. I see him as a positionless player that spends time on the practice squad and active roster- he also played defense in college! He is currently listed at WR but that may change.
Tre Nixon Tre is our 7th round pick from the 2021 draft out of UCF. Tre has great speed but has not made much of an impact in his time in Foxboro. I see us adding 2 wideouts via FA or the draft and keeping Montgomery as a tweener. I don’t see Nixon making the team in 2023.
Scotty Washington coming to us via the Bengals practice squad- an ex tight end. I’ll eat part of a shoe if he makes the roster in Foxboro in 2023.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey Picked up off Saints practice squad. Played in 6 games, dropped midseason.
Draft Notes: Possible adds via the draft are Jaxon Smith Njigba and Zay Flowers in the early rounds, and Rakim Jarrett or Trey Palmer in the later rounds.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry Hunter is a product of University of Arkansas and via the LA Chargers. We signed Hunter- Bills favorite tight end to a three year deal in 2021. Hunter has an outstanding connection with Mac and I look for him to rebound from our offensive woes in 2023.
Jonnu Smith The FAU product also signed for us in 2021 but has struggled with the playbook and has been a major disappointment- he will likely be released prior to June 2nd when we can save some cap space.
Matt Sokol A journeyman who has spent stints on several NFL teams, I look for Sokol to be used as the 3rd tight end in 2023- reflected by the two year deal he signed in New England just recently.
Draft notes: Will Mallory out of Miami, Luke Schoonmaker out of MI, or Cade Stover out of OSU.
Offensive Line
Cole Strange Cole came to us shocking the NFL world(and Sean McVay) in the first round of the 2022 draft. The UC Chattanooga product had an outstanding Senior Bowl and wowed the Patriots staff. Cole did solid during his rookie year but needs to improve his pass blocking skills.
Michael Onewenu Onwenu was a 6th round pick out of Michigan from the 2020 NFL draft and has been our second biggest hit in that round from UM apart from a recently retired Florida Man. Onwenu has been a fantastic find on the OL for us.
James Ferentz UFA
Yodny Cajuste RFA
Hayden Howerton is our other guard available right now and we signed him off the Titans practice squad for a two year future deal. I look for him to be a nice depth piece. We might add one body from the XFL or USFL once their season ends.
Tackle Andrew Stuebner Andrew was another Michigan man from the 7th round of the 2022 class. Stubes will be a good swing tackle for us this year and is currently the only tackle on the roster. Trent Brown will likely be released and Isaiah Wynn likely not re-signed. I see the Patriots adding a tackle via free agency and adding two more in the draft.
Connor McDermott Re-signed for 2 years.
Marcus Cannon UFA
Draft notes: Dawand Jones- (Ohio State), Peter Skronski (NW), Jaedyn Duncan (Maryland) Matthew Bergeron (Syracuse) and McClendon Curtis (played next to Cole Strange at UTC).
Center David Andrews Andrews has been a stalwart since the mid 2010s in the Patriots interior. Andrews is likely in the twilight of his NFL career and will likely retire after the 2024 season. We have two very young players in Kody Russey and Chasen Hines that will likely serve as depth in the meantime.
Bottom line is the offensive line will likely add another body at guard from the USFL/XFL-we will likely draft two tackles and add one via free agency. Offensive line needs some work.
Defensive Line
Davon Godchaux Godchaux came to us via our division rival the Miami Dolphins in the 2021 offseason. Godchaux had a fantastic 2021 season but slumped in 2022 only registering 1.5 sacks on the year.
Lawrence Guy This longtime stalwart has been with the Patriots since 2017 and in the NFL since 2011. He has been a stalwart on the front lines for the last five years- however he is aging and the Patriots might cut him to save some cap prior to June 2nd.
Christian Barmore Barmore came to us in the second round of the 2021 NFL draft out of Alabama in the same round as his good friend Mac Jones. Christian has struggled a bit in Foxboro but is looking for his breakout third season on the team- with Guy possibly being released he will play a much bigger role this year.
Sam Roberts Our sixth round pick in last year’s draft from NW Missouri State made the team this past year albeit only dressing for a handful of games. He has a high motor and is a fan favorite and will likely play substantially more this year.
Bill Murray, Jeremiah Pharms, and LaBryan Ray are our reserve players at this position. I believe Ray will make the active roster and play a good bit this year- I don’t see Murray making the team and I see Pharms being on the PS for the majority of the year.
Defensive Ends
Deatrich Wise A fourth rounder out of the 2017 draft class- Wise had an outstanding year for the Patriots in 2022 racking up 7.5 sacks. Wise is our clear cut bandit end in our defense this year.
Ronnie Perkins Perkins was a 3rd round pick in our 2021 draft class. He has seen little to no playing time due to injuries and depth. Perkins is in a do or die season in New England and will be playing with his hand in the dirt this year with the emergence of Josh Uche at rush end.
DeMarcus Mitchell Joined us as a UDFA out of Purdue in 2022 and got some playing time as a end and also as a stand up linebacker. I see Mitchell playing a similar but enhanced role in 2023.
Draft notes: Byron Young (Alabama) DJ Dale (Alabama) Jonah Tavai (SDSU) Jacob Slade (MSU)
Linebackers and Defensive backs
Linebacker and defensive back is the strong point of the New England team- we have a very strong front with Josh Uche and Matthew Judon, plus our interior LBs of Anfernee Jennings and Ja’Whaun Bentley. The Jones Bois on the back end show promise along with Jalen Mills. While Devin McCourty might retire, we will probably re-sign Jabrill Peppers and play Adrian Phillips across from him. We will likely add a corner in FA and a safety via the draft.
Also: Raekwon McMillan, Mack Wilson, Joejuan Williams, UFA
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