The running game is starting to make a comeback. I don’t know if this trend will continue, but it looks like a real trend to me. For those who believe in the adage “running backs don’t matter” I don’t necessarily believe this trend is in opposition to that philosophy. The running game matters, and it seems that it’s mattering more and more. It might be the result of more rushing yards coming from quarterbacks, more efficient running game, more traditional non-QB rushing yards, or all of the above (I’ll probably look at this as a phase two to this project). But what is clear to me is that the NFL is running more and running better.
I looked at 5 basic running stats over the last 20 years to explore some of the more recent trends. For all I’ve heard that the running game has been de-emphasized and the game has evolved into a passing-heavy game, I was surprised to see the pendulum swinging back the other way. Each of the five stats has shown a recent increase after a steady, long-term decrease.
Let’s take a look!
Rushing Attempts per Game:
The 27.3 rushes per game last year was the most the league has seen since 2011, a stretch of 11 years. While an increase of 1.4 attempts since 2018 doesn’t seem like a lot (+5%), the league has also become much more efficient with those attempts. Designed QB runs and QBs taking off when pressured are probably part of this. In 2018 14.1% of carries came from QBs, that number if up to 15.6% in 2018.
If we go back further, the league averaged 27.9 attempts per game in the ‘90s, 30.9 in the ‘80s, and 34.8 in the ‘70s
Rushing yards per attempt
Yards per attempt takes on a different pattern than attempts. There is no long-term trend of a steady decline. A gradual(ish) increase from 2000-11, followed by a gradual decline from 2011 and bottoming out in 2017 at 4.08 yards per attempt. And them BAM 2018 happened, and we never looked back. While 2018 had a big jump in QB runs (12% of all runs in 2017 to 14.1% in 2018) that wasn’t the primary reason for the improved yards per carry as non-QB runs (mostly RB) went from 4.05 Y/A in 2017 to 4.43 Y/A in 2018. Last season ended with the highest Y/A in the history of the league at 4.46.
Rushing yards per game
When attempts are increasing, and Y/A is at an all-time high, naturally Yards per game is going to increase by a lot. You have to go back 35 years (1987) to find a season with more rushing yards per game. Yards per game increased by 12% since being at the 5th and 6th lowest of all-time in 2015/16. At 118 yards per game, the 2020s so far are on pace to be the most prolific rushing decade since the ‘80’s (123 per game)
I also wanted to look at rushing attempts and yards as a % of scrimmage attempts and yards, to normalize for the number of plays and yards from scrimmage per game. The next two charts show rushing attempts / scrimmage attempts and rushing yards / scrimmage yards.
Rushing attempt %
Last season 45% of plays from scrimmage were running plays (+ unscripted runs by QBs), this is the highest since 2009. 1983 was the last season that this number was above 50%.
Rushing Yard %
Over the last seven years (2015-22), the league increased by almost 5 percentage points, taking back all the % lost in the previous seven years from 2008-15. We are at the highest point in the last 17 years.
Indexed to the low point in 2016:
This chart summarizes the increases since 2016 which is about the lowest point (give or take a year) in rushing productivity as it relates to these metrics. I took each of the 5 stats and divided by the value in 2016 and then multiplied by 100. This indexes everything to 100 in 2016 and provides a clean way to show the growth from that point to 2022. The ending number represents the % increase. 115 = a 15% increase.
My observations are more about the trend and not much about the “why.” I would need a deeper dive into the data, or perhaps a few more points of IQ to get to the why. These stats are also big-picture trends and other advanced analytics like DVOA or EPA, may provide more/better pieces to the puzzle. It does appear to me that teams are now adjusting their strategy to attack defenses that have been built to stop the pass over the last decade+. More QB running, greater efficiency, more creativity in play calling, may all contribute to this trend. This doesn’t definitively suggest that running backs matter, but the running game is making a comeback and the running game matters again.
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