Carolina Panthers
Division: NFC South
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
- Carolina Panthers (7-10)
- New Orleans Saints (7-10)
- Atlanta Falcons (7-10)
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Coaching Changes
Everyone Gone
Matt Rhule, who was then maybe the Least Popular person in Charlotte, was fired after going 11-27 as a head coach (going 1-27 when the Panthers allowed more than a mere 17 points). We shipped off his close associate, defensive coordinator Phil Snow, who probably wouldn’t have stayed without Rhule anyways. With his departure, nature is healing.
Grade: A+ Good luck at Nebraska, I won’t be tuning in.
Wilks Tenure
Rhule was replaced by popular interim Steve Wilks (a graduate of West Charlotte High School and App State who played his only professional season of football for the Charlotte Rage). Wilks took over a team that was 1-4, with a losing identity, that was shipping off its best players, and went 6-6, just a hair short of the playoffs. Despite lots of support from fans and players, even with the team playing with a lot more life, Owner David Tepper decided that going 6-6 and missing the playoffs wasn’t enough, and let him know he wouldn’t come back.
Grade: C-. It’s hard to dismiss someone the entire lockroom loves, especially when they do so much better than anyone thinks is possible, as you’re shipping off pieces like CMC. Wilks was the first person to make Panthers fans feel hopeful in a while, and it’s a genuine shame to see him go.
Head Coach
He turned to Frank Reich, the first quarterback in franchise history. Legendary for some comebacks, he has a long history of playing quarterback, as well as working as a quarterback coach. Reich has been the QB coach for Peyton Manning, Phil Rivers, and Charlie Whitehurst, while building up Foles and Wentz as the OC during the Eagles Super Bowl run. His reputation as a QB guru was top-tier and couldn’t be touched.
Until he became the Colts head coach. In his five years in Indy, he had five different day-one starting QBs (Luck, Brissett, Rivers, Wentz, and Matt Ryan). He went 40-33-1 in those five years, with two postseason appearances. He was ultimately let go of the Colts last year, probably not because of his record, but because he couldn’t make one of those quarterbacks work.
So, you’ve got an interesting dichotomy– someone who was a QB guru– until he became a HC and then got let go because he couldn’t work with them. To what degree do you place that failure on the Colts front office or Reich? Tepper knew that we’d likely be about to mortgage the farm to get a young QB, decided to give Wilks the slip in order to take someone who’s coached a lot of great quarterbacks, and coach up some struggling ones. Rather than keep the team’s identity primarily defensive.
Grade: B+ I want to like Reich, his pedigree is mostly impressive, and he obviously had some bad Luck with the Colts but considering how much we gave up for Bryce Young, it’s a little spooky that he lost his last job because of his inability to make quarterbacks work.
Offensive Coaching
This is an easy one. We parted ways with offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo (primarily useful as a source of memes) and quarterback coach Sean Ryan (who is solid if unsexy). They were replaced by Thomas Brown, who was the Assistant Head Coach for Sean McVay and the Rams while coaching running backs and tight ends, and Josh McCown, who I think may be the head coach of the Texans at the same time.
Our new WR coach, Shawn Jefferson (Van Jefferson’s dad), was Nuk’s WR coach the last few years in Arizona.
We retained O-line coach James Campen from the Rhule tenure. He won a ring with the Packers in his 20-year career at the O-line coaching position. The development of Ikem Ekwonu has been promising, and according to PFF, the offensive line might have been the biggest improvement from 2021 to 2022.
Grade: A Obviously, there are things to quibble about (I’m happy that we retained Campen, though others complained about him last year– and it’d be nice to have Andy Reid as the QB coach) but considering how tough it was to get quality people in Carolina in the recent past… this is a good sign! Reich, and the ending of last year, is bringing more optimism, and people are excited to work with Bryce Young, so we’re getting talent!
Defensive Coaching
Last year, when Rhule was fired after 5 games, Snow was canned as the DC and Wilks was quickly pushed to become the head coach. That pushed Al Holcolmb to step into the interim DC role quickly without much time to implement schemes and systems. Despite that, we finished 14th in scoring defense and 22nd in yards allowed per game. Solid, not amazing.
We cleaned house and none of the position coaches were retained. We lured Ejiro Evero to become the defensive coordinator. Evero was the Ram’s safeties coach and passing game coordinator for five years, helping win their Super Bowl, and then Denver’s underrated defensive coordinator last year. He was pushed out after Sean Payton got to Denver. He interviewed for several head coaching vacancies, and you have to wonder if Tepper’s deep pockets helped us land him for this position. And if it’s temporary until he gets an HC job next year, well, we’ll worry about that after the Super Bowl parade!
Todd Wash, the defensive coordinator for the Jaguars in that really cool 2017 season, is the new defensive line coach. Dom Capers, who went 30-34 as the Panthers first ever head coach (also, weirdly, the Texans first ever HC) is a senior defensive assistant, alongside Jim Caldwell, who made the playoffs 4 times in his 7 years as a Head Coach, including a Super Bowl appearance. DeAngelo Hall is making his coaching debut as our DB coach, and now all we need is for Jay Cutler to take over as the QB coach for the Saints and we’ll be good!
There’s always reason to be optimistic about a new coaching staff that hasn’t messed up yet. But we got the hot and exciting DC, and buoyed him with a lot of experienced former HCs. Again, I’m bummed to see Steve Wilks go, but when you compare this to a unit run by Phil Snow, I’m totally glad to give it a
Grade: A
I’m probably being a silly homer being this excited about this coaching staff, but with more than 200 years of coaching experience among them, you’ve got some credentials and it just feels like they know what they’re doing, which is a huge breath of fresh air after the last few years. I’m really hopeful that Evero and Capers and McCown can really tap into some potential and bring out things that Snow and Rhule couldn’t!
Free Agency
Players lost/cut
Matt Ioannidis/DT/FA
D’Onta Foreman/RB/Bears
DJ Moore/WR/Bears
Sam Darnold/QB/49ers
PJ Walker/QB/Bears
Pat Elflein/C/FA
Damien Wilson/ILB/FA
Cory Littleton/LB/Texans
Myles Hartsfield/S/49ers
Juston Burris/S/Panthers Scouting Team
Moore is the big loss, obviously. It was the cost to get the franchise quarterback, but at the time of the trade, he was 25 and had 5201 yards and 21 touchdowns. For reference, Edelman had 6,822 in his entire 11 year career. I hope that being in a major media market turns him into a star.
Speaking of the Bears, we let D’Onta Foreman walk, and he wound up in Chicago as well. Considering how well he played for us in the Wilks stint, that one hurts, especially considering how much cheaper he was than Sanders. I wish him good luck in Chicago too!
Matt Ioannidis had 37 tackles and 9 QB hits last year. He had a lot of QB hits for only having a single sack, so that kind of screams bad luck. He was meaningful but we’ll move on.
Sam Darnold and PJ Walker, both starting QBs for us at one point, have moved on to backup positions. Darnold could theoretically start a few games this year. This free agency is giving me a soft spot for San Francisco and Chicago.
Players signed
Von Bell/S/Bengals/3 year/$22.5m
DJ Chark/WR/Lions/1 year/$5m
Andy Dalton/QB/Saints/2 year/$10m
Hayden Hurst/TE/Bengals/3 year/$21.7m
Justin McCray/G/Texans/1 year/$1.77m
Miles Sanders/RB/Eagles/4 year/$25.4m
Adam Thielen/WRVikings/3 year/$25m
Shy Tuttle/NT/Saints/3 year/$19.5m
DeShawn Williams/NT/Broncos/1 year/$1.75m
Von Bell is third among safeties in the NFL with his 622 tackles, and leads all safeties with 11 fumble recoveries. Yes, that means he’s older, but he should play well.
Chark and Thielen were signed to help fill the gap created by losing Moore. Both have struggled with injuries in their careers, but have plenty of upside. It’s nice to surround the rookie QB with veterans.
I really hope that Dalton isn’t much more than a veteran locker room presence for the Young guy, but 3 Pro Bowls isn’t something to laugh at and he should be useful if needed.
We landed Pro Bowler Miles Sanders after a career year in Philly and we’ll hope he can put up numbers like that again. As I alluded to before, it’s a bummer to see Foreman go, and then replace him for like 6 times the money. But Sanders can run, catch, and he’s fine at pass protection. He can be a three-down guy. Is it smart that our most expensive FA signing is a running back? I don’t know! Mind your own business!
Draft
1/1/Bryce Young/QB/Alabama
2/39/Jonathan Mingo/WR/Ole Miss
3/80/DJ Johnson/EDGE/Oregon
4/114/Chandler Zavala/G/NC State
5/15/Jammie Robinson/S/Florida State
Bryce Young
So, this is the obvious one. After years of trying to kick the tires on Teddy Bridgewater, flipping a 2nd and 4th and 6th for Sam Darnold, trading a 5th for Baker Mayfield, spending a 3rd on Matt Corral, hoping that this next guy would finally be “that guy,” ownership decided they’d had enough.
They packaged two 1sts (including a top-10 pick), two 2nds, and the fan-favorite WR DJ Moore, sent them all to Chicago, and secured the first overall pick. Despite some speculation about Stroud, Richardson, Hooker, and Levis, the Panthers ultimately selected Bryce Young, the Heisman winning quarterback who went 23-4 as a starter at Alabama.
Despite concerns about his size, or that he took a small step back his second year starting, Bryce is ultimately probably the best quarterback in this draft, and QB was very clearly our pressing team need. Then ownership brought in an offensive-minded coach who’s worked closely with quarterbacks before to help.
Whatever happens, good or bad, this will be the “Bryce Young Draft” and GM Scott Fitterer is staking his job on Bryce’s shiny, exciting potential! And so far, in camp, everything is giving reason for optimism.
Of course, if Bryce bombs out, that’s some premium draft capital we’ll miss, while DJ Moore probably catches 1,400 yards. That’s the cost of doing business for a quarterback in the NFL now, but it spooks me a little.
Grade: Ask me in 2026
Jonathan Mingo
With the 39th pick, we took Mingo, a big-bodied WR out of Ole Miss. He’s a careful route runner, and despite being a “slot receiver,” he’s a versatile guy and the Panthers can try to get creative and put him all over the field.
The catch is– he’s a surprising pick at 39 because the perception is that he’s not too good. NFL.com’s combine profile says he’ll probably develop into an average starter someday. Walter Football guessed that Mingo’s speed isn’t enough to separate from a top-end corner so he’ll probably be a 2nd receiver his whole career, and said that his high-end comparison is Mohamed Sanu. That’s why the average mock draft had him going 79th.)
Good for Reich and friends to get some weapons for Young, after the loss of Moore, and going out and getting the guy they wanted. But it’s a little perplexing since 1- there were still higher rated receivers on the board like Marvin Mims and 2- there’s a good chance he’d still be available when we selected again in the third round.
So, we spent an early 2nd on a big slow wide receiver who didn’t do much in college and would probably have chilled out on draft boards? I’m writing this in a Baker Mayfield Panthers jersey so I’m willing to own that my judgment may be suspect and Fitterer knows more than me, but my knee-jerk reaction is to give it a
Grade: D+
DJ Johnson
With the 80th pick, the Panthers took an edge rusher out of Oregon named DJ Johnson. This really fills a team need for people named DJ after the loss of DJ Moore.
Johnson went to Miami (which makes sense– he has a Sean Taylor tattoo on his arm), but transferred back home to Oregon. He was converted from DE to TE. And then back to OLB. So he’s… rough. Despite leading Oregon in sacks last year, the buzz is that he’s just not polished as a pass rusher and more used to setting the edge for rushes, which would make it hard to start in the NFL.
He’s 6’4, 260 pounds, and runs right at the same 40 time as Jonathan Mingo. He’s powerfully strong, and he took huge strides his fifth year, you know– the first time he got to keep his position instead of transferring or getting converted. So, there’s a lot of optimism about his potential.
There’s some media folk who want to talk about him starting this year, which I really doubt will happen, but he’s an awesome developmental player with really high up-side, and if the Panthers like him enough to trade up, I’m optimistic about what this guy will do in 2024 and 2025.
Grade: B+
Chandler Zavala
The Panthers used the 114th pick (a 4th rounder) on NC State’s guard Chandler Zavala. Zavala was a monster at NC State (He allowed one QB hit and no sacks over 1,085 snaps in the last two years) and he already has lots of chemistry with Ikem Ekwonu. He’s a good drive blocker, who plays smart and has a big frame.
The typical knocks on him are that he’s a little older (24) and that he isn’t particularly strong or fast enough to ever be elite, and he’ll probably get pushed around by the all-pro players. But he’s a talented interior lineman who’s put up great production, taken in the 4th. Score!
His dad, Demetrio Zavala, is a chef who won Chopped twice. That’s not exactly related to his football ability, but it’s still pretty cool.
Grade: A-
Jammie Robinson
The Panthers used the 145th pick, a 5th rounder, on Jammie Robinson, who played safety, though there was plenty of pre-draft discussion about moving him to nickel.
Jammie Robinson was first-team all-ACC each of the last two years for the Florida State Seminoles. He led the team in tackles, including a handful behind the line of scrimmage, picked off the ball four times, and forced another couple of fumbles in 2021. In 2022, he had 99 tackles. Productivity wasn’t the issue.
The combine on the other hand… 4.6 40 time, small arms, short, skinny, slow shuttle, short broad jump. NFL.com’s review of him is that he was the 2nd most productive safety in this class… and 14th in athleticism.
I’ve seen one scout note that when he gets a step behind in coverage, he stays a step behind (in the ACC), that he’s not big enough to be an NFL safety or fast enough to be a nickel. Another scout noted that he’s a baller and you just have to get him involved.
Can this undersized guy overcome the odds? It definitely feels like one of those “my brain says no but my heart says yes” moments. For a 5th rounder? He’s got a lot of proven production, heart, and instinct. We’ll just see what sort of limitations he can overcome.
Grade: B
Other Offseason News that Affected the Team
Brian Burns is due for an extension. After we declined a (potentially high) pair of firsts and a second for him, if we don’t retain him, it’ll be an all-time front office blunder. Scott Fitterer promised that after the draft, the first priority will be to get Burns signed to a long-term deal so it’s a little surprising nothing has happened yet. The two sides might be further apart than you’d hope since Burns wants to be one of the highest paid pass-rushers. You can quibble about whether or not he deserves that, but Fitterer priced himself in the moment he declined the Rams trade. If Burns, who’s turning into an anchor in the locker room, is playing out the season without a long-term deal, that will hang heavy in the locker room, the media, the front office, and probably the men’s room at the White Water Center.
It might be harder to cough up the money for Spider-Burns right now though because the Panthers have $51.5 million in dead cap right now, with $33,000,000 being assessed for CMC and DJ Moore. Not as bad at Tampa Bay or the Rams, but it’s a breath away from having the third most dead cap. Since only one of the four teams ahead of us are expected to have a winning record, that could be alarming. There’s very high expectations among the fanbase right now, but 23% of our salary is going to pay guys on other teams.
That doesn’t mean that it’s all doom and gloom this year. Tom Brady is gone. Which feels like a lame thing to point out in our write-up, instead of waiting for the Tampa one, but… 8-9 was good enough to win our division last year, and the team that got 8 wins lost Tom Brady and will be starting Kyle Trask or Baker Mayfield. The path to the playoffs might just involve Burns and Horn working Kyle Trask and Desmond Ridder.
Eric and Marc Staal are getting older and we’ll need to be working out their replacements.
Schedule Predictions
Here’s our schedule, the Vegas line for each game, and a few thoughts for each game.
1 - @ Falcons
Vegas has the Panthers down 2.5 against a familiar foe. I think that the new coaching means this defense is better than you think and that Ridder struggles in his first start. I like this matchup.
2 - vs Saints
The Panthers are considered a point favorite against the Saints. The Saints have a lot of talent on paper, and the Used Carr Market was good to them. But this is at home and, as far as anyone can guess, they’ll be without Kamara. I like this matchup a lot too.
3 - @ Seahawks
The Panthers are 4 point underdogs in Seattle. Flying across the country to take on Geno Smith probably isn’t good for us and this is probably a loss.
4- vs. Vikings
We’re expected to lose to the Vikings, according to Vegas, but only 1.5 points under. That’s pretty wild considering their record from last year, but they were really lucky in a lot of ways. They’re spo0oky and no one seems to know if they’re good or bad– but with a high-end offensive line to contain Burns, and JJ better than anyone we have to cover him, I feel like we fall to 2-2.
5 - @ Lions
We’re not expected to get such an easy rematch in Detroit next year, as 5 point underdogs. After we stomped them last year, it’s hard to think that we’re just going to roll over and die in Detroit but they’re preseason favorites to win their division for a reason. We fall to 2-3.
6 - @ Dolphins
Vegas believes this is the least winnable game on our schedule, as we’re 7 point underdogs. Arguing that we’ll pull it off in Miami is going to sound like insane homer-ism so I won’t bother.
7 - BYE
Vegas has not yet set a line for our week 7 bye.
8 - vs, Texans
We are three point favorites against the Texans. Stroud vs. Young will be the media narrative, but I think our pass rush vs. everyone not named Tunsil will be the actual story. I like our odds a lot.
9 - vs. Colts
We are 2.5 point favorites against the Colts. Obviously, we don’t know yet who the QB will be, making this really hard to guess. Reich won’t get the chance to play against a QB he coached up, but considering how well he knows that roster, I think Reich’s Revenge takes us up to 4-4.
10 - @ Bears
In a third consecutive game with interesting media narratives, We are two point underdogs in Chicago. I think that the game script could go better for us than people think. Last year, the Bears had the second worst rush defense and I’d be comfortable daring Fields to throw it. In my mind, Sanders and Chuba could just keep pounding the ball in a game script that looked like the Lions game last year. Everyone probably expects DJ Moore to nuke us, but I like this matchup a lot.
11 - vs. Cowboys
We dem boyz that are currently expected to win by 3.5 on November 19th. But I’m not sure that I buy it. Being at home is nice, but the Cowboys are legitimate contenders to lose the Divisional Round. Sure, they lost Zeke or whatever, but Pollard has always been better, Micah Parsons is a monster, etc. This smells like a loss to me.
12 - @ Titans
We are just a single point underdogs against the Titans. Our run defense has been middling, and Henry is a monster, but I’m optimistic that it’ll be better this year. To me, this feels like a tight game in Tanny starts, and an easy win if it’s Levis. Magic 8 Ball says… Brian Burns reaches Levis twice in a win to rise to 6-5.
13 - @ Bucs
We are one point underdogs against Tampa. This may be stupid and defeatist and the sort of thing fans say instead of smart people… But I think Baker has one good game in 2023, and I think it’s this one, and we lose bad.
14 - @ Saints
We are three point underdogs in New Orleans. Kamara will be back, it’ll be at their place, and that really is a talented defense. We fall to 6-7.
15 - vs. Falcons
We are one-point favorites at home against the Falcons. It’s funny to try to guess on these because Ridder and Bryce are both spooky unknown variables but… it’s at home.
16 - vs. Packers
We are, by 1 point, home underdogs against Green Bay. Speaking of unknown spooky QB variables… Incidentally, the Packers allowed 146 rushing yards per game on the road in 2022. If we drop this game, it tells me that Jordan Love is better than I expect, or Bryce is going to struggle more than I expect.
17 - @ Jaguars
We are 5 point underdogs in Jacksonville. As funny as it would be to see Chark go off and nuke ‘em, it probably won’t happen., and we’ll fall to 8-8.
18 - vs. Bucs
We are 2.5 point favorites against Tampa. Baker doesn’t throw for 600 yards this time and we go 9-8 this year.
Vegas Says: 6-11. When you consider how many of those are actually projected to be very narrow losses, Vegas has set our win total at 7.5, but going game-by-game gives you 6.
But I Say: A lot of the Panthers fans in Charlotte are extremely optimistic right now. For years, the team needs have been QB and coach and we’ve apparently made massive improvements at both positions. Patience is a virtue however, and “settling” for 9-8 with a rookie QB is pretty awesome. (Or, my level of homer-ism is worth 3 wins a year).
I’d be bummed by 6-11, and I’d be amped by 11-6. Anything in the middle sounds pretty reasonable. But I’m feeling 9-8, which last year was good enough to get a wildcard spot for the Seahawks but not for the Lions. The Saints are probably the favorite for the division– but the playoffs are possible!
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