How does this list work?
The NBA Player Tiers Project is an assessment of players' positions in various tiers based on their championship equity for the upcoming 2023-24 season. The author emphasizes that the tiers are more about playoff competitiveness than regular-season win accumulation. The qualifications for each tier are determined by factors such as player impact models, including Estimated Plus/Minus (EPM) and Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM). The tiers are contract agnostic and intended to focus on a player's on-court production relative to others. Positional skill sets, roles, and contributions to team-building are also taken into account. Each player's position, team, and key metrics are detailed, forming the basis for their placement in each tier. The tiers are intended to provide insight into which players contribute the most value toward winning a championship.
Tier 2C: 15-18
Paul George, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, James Harden, Jamal Murray
Tier 2B: 12-14
Damian Lillard, Ja Morant, Anthony Davis
Tier 2A: 7-11
Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Jayson Tatum, Devin Booker and LeBron James
Reasoning for LeBron James' ranking:
He still has the “any given night” ability to be transcendent, but any given night is in contrast with “every” or even “most” given nights, a capacity he used to have and the players in Tier 1 still do. The biggest declines have come, very visibly, on defense, where his level of concentration and intensity frequently waver during the long season. In the right matchup, he can still use his strength to dial up the defensive effort, but his lateral quickness isn’t what it was.
And I still feel weird writing this about him, but … he will turn 39 this coming season, with nearly 66,000 combined regular season and playoff minutes on his odometer. That he’s even this high, still, tells you everything you need to know about how good he was at his peak and how long he stayed there.
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