Miami Dolphins
Division: AFC East
Record: 10-6 (3-3 Division) (2nd in AFC East)
Introduction
Hello my fellow NFL Fans. We're over half way done with this series, and now we get to talk about one of the focal points of this off-season, the Miami Dolphins. Due to their loaded capital, they were a hot bed of discussion for every disgruntled veteran, and the joy of every mock drafter, as their potential to execute moves was limitless.
Now, if we want to talk about the 2020 season, it was a great year in terms of performance vs. expectations, but it ended on a sour note. Once emotions cooled down, everyone recognized the Dolphins were in a position to be successful. A right move or a wrong move could determine the future of our franchise. Now, it's time to see what moves were made and what we hope they did.
Statistics
Offense:
| Stat | Total | Rank | Average | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yards | 339 Yards / game | 22nd | 5.3 / play | -- |
| Passing Yds | 3736 | 20th | 6.3 NY/A | 20th |
| Rushing Yds | 1688 | 22nd | 3.9 | 29th |
| Passing TDs | 24 | 22nd | 153 firsts | -- |
| Rushing TDs | 15 | 19th | 75 firsts | -- |
| 1st Downs | 345 | 19th | -- | -- |
| 3rd Downs | 78/202 | 27th | -- | -- |
| Penalties | 74 penalties | -- | 635 yards | -- |
Defense:
| Stat | Total | Rank | Average | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yards | 367.88 /game | 20th | 5.9 /play | -- |
| Passing Yds | 4024 | 23rd | 6.9 NY/A | 24th |
| Rushing Yds | 1862 | 16th | 4.5 | 18th |
| Passing TDs | 21 | 2nd | 193 firsts | -- |
| Rushing TDs | 17 | 18th | 113 Firsts | -- |
| 1st Downs | 336 | 12th | -- | -- |
| 3rd Downs | 58/186 | 1st | -- | -- |
| Penalties | 85 | -- | 805 yards | -- |
Miscellaneous Stats:
| Stat | Amount | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Sacks taken | 34 | -- |
| Sacks | 41 | -- |
| Turnover Differential | +9 | -- |
| Fumbles | 11 | 4th |
| Fumbles Lost | 7 | 11th |
| Interceptions Thrown | 13 | 17th |
| Turnovers | 20 | 16th |
| Fumbles Forced | 16 | -- |
| Fumbles Recovered | 11th | 4th |
| Interceptions | 18 | 1st |
| Takeaways | 29 | 1st |
Coaching Staff Review
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General Manager - Chris Grier: I like to include Grier because he plays a pivotal role in our team as a great partner to Flores. It's been his job to get Flores all these players to work with, and put us in positions to succeed. It'd be hard to pick one or the other for whose been most responsible for us being where we are today.
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Head Coach - Brian Flores: Fans love Flores. He's a guy you want to play for. He motivates you to play harder. He even motivates you to be a better person. However, his best trait is definitely his humility and willingness to admit that he could do better. We're going into year 3 and he's now on his third "offensive coordinator". No one knows how their responsibilities will be split, just that he's still looking to put our players in the best spot to succeed.
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Defensive Coordinator - "Josh Boyer": Boyer is back, thankfully, even if his exact duties are a bit of a mystery, although Flores says he is the conductor of our aggressive defense. Flores was a mastermind of the defense in New England, and brought that down here. This is a case of whatever works for Flores, works for me. If Boyer's job is to get Starbucks every day, I don't care if that's what we need to do to find the success we did in 2020. If any group earned the right to stability, it was defense.
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Offensive Coordinator(s) - George Godsey: Godsey has a been more recent, and diverse, path in the NFL, first coaching for the Patriots in 2011 as an offensive assistant. He would move to the Tight Ends coach in 2012 and 2013, before going to the Texans as a QB coach in 2014 and offensive coordinator in 2015 and 2016. In 2017 he switched side and was a defensive assistant for the Detroit Lions, then went back to the offense to coach QBs in 2018. He came to the Dolphins in 2019 with Flores, and has been the tight ends coach ever seen. He's overseen the development of Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe, and Nick O'Leary. Again, it's pretty obvious he is going to be more focused on the passing of our offense.
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Offensive Coordinator(s) - Eric Studesville: Studesville has been a long time run game coordinator and running back coach. He broke into the NFL in 1997 and was involved with the running backs every year. He was interim head coach for the Broncos in 2010, his first year with the team, and remained with them through the 2016 season. In 2017, he was promoted to assistant head coach, and left in 2018 to run the Dolphins run game and running back room. Now,the relationship of the system may be unknown, but if I were a betting man, I would guess Studesville would be installing the game plan for run-heavy situations and games
Draft Picks
| Round | Pick | Name | Position | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | Jaylen Waddle | WR | Alabama |
| 1 | 18 | Jaelan Phillips | EDGE | Miami |
| 2 | 36 | Jevon Holland | DB | Oregon |
| 2 | 42 | Liam Eichenberg | OT | Notre Dame |
| 3 | 81 | Hunter Long | TE | Boston College |
| 7 | 231 | Larnel Coleman | OL | Massachusetts |
| 7 | 244 | Gerrid Doaks | RB | Cincinnati |
I was absolutely in love with our draft. I was a big draft-an-RB proponent, but I am very satisfied with the end result. Waddle is obviously a very dynamic player and adds a ton to our team and what we want to do. Jaelan Phillips definitely gave me some hesitation, as the statistics do not favor his concussion history, but this is a top 10 player in the draft if you can guarantee his health. Jevon Holland is my favorite pick of the draft. I've been on the Jevon Holland train for almost a year, seeing him as exactly what Flores needs to take our defense from top 10, to top 3. He offers versatility and big play potential out of the wazoo, but I was resigned to pass on him due to position importance. I am very glad we grabbed him, but I was a bit concerned about our offense at that point. Thankfully, we traded up to grab my top OT at the time, Liam Eichenberg. I love his high floor and technically sound game and see him as being an early starter for us. Hunter Long was a bit of a head scratcher, and we'll see what the plans are for him long term but he obviously has talent and a skill set we covet. As for Coleman and Doaks, they're seventh round picks. I like their upside but accept its unlikely we see either become great.
After the draft, I am very happy with where our roster is overall. We have a ton of talent across the team and tons of competition if one of them gets complacent. We do have some major question marks going forward, namely C and RB, but those are positions I'm comfortable taking a risk on at least. Now to see if we can scheme around it.
Free Agents
Final Roster Predictions
| Position | Starter | Depth 1 | Depth 2/3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Tua Tagovailoa | Jacoby Brissett | |
| RB | Myles Gaskin | Malcolm Brown | Salvon Ahmed/Gerrid Doaks |
| WR1 | Devante Parker | Preston Williams | |
| WR2 | Will Fuller | Albert Wilson | Allen Hurns |
| WR3 | Jaylen Waddle | Lynn Bowden Jr | |
| TE | Mike Gesicki | Adam Shaheen | Durham Smythe/Hunter Long |
| LT | Austin Jackson | Larnal coleman | |
| LG | Solomon Kindley | Jesse Davis | |
| C | Matt Skura | Michael Deiter | |
| RG | Robert Hunt | ||
| RT | Liam Eichenberg | DJ Fluker | |
| DE | Jaelan Phillips | Andrew Van Ginkel | |
| 5T | Emmanual Ogbah | Zach Sieler | |
| NT | Raekwon Davis | Adam Butler | |
| 3T | Christian Wilkins | Jonathan Ledbetter | |
| SLB | Benardrick McKinney | Vince Biegel | |
| MLB | Jerome Baker | Samuel Eguavoen | |
| WLB | Duke Riley | Brennan Scarlett | |
| CB1 | Xavien Howard | Noah Igbinoghene | |
| CB2 | Byron Jones | Jamal Perry | |
| Slot | Nik Needham | Justin Coleman | |
| FS | Jevon Holland | Jason McCourty | |
| SS | Eric Rowe | Brandon Jones | |
| LS | Blake Ferguson | ||
| K | Jason Sanders | ||
| P | Matt Palardy | ||
Bolded players represent the ones I have no clue on but am taking a wild guess at.
Potential third year risers: Myles Gaskin, Christian Wilkins, Preston Williams, Andrew Van Ginkel
Potential Sophomore superstars: Tua Tagovailoa, Noah Igbinoghene, Robert Hunt, Raekwon Davis
I'm hoping for a 50% on my roster prediction, with a 90% on who actually makes the roster. Some of them are pencilled in but there's a lot of uncertainty on the roster in terms of who the staff will prefer, as lots of guys have a defined role but aren't clearly better than another.
As for third year rises, I see Myles Gaskins, Christian Wilkins, and Andrew Van Ginkel having clear roles on this team. They provide a service we need, with AVG even being the reason we paid to lose Kyle Van Noy this off-season. Preston, on the other hand, will always be listen as a potential riser due to how fixable his issues appear to be, when weighed against his ceiling.
For the 2nd year guys, Robert Hunt and Raekwon Davis have already shown a ton as rookies. Now, they'll be asked to excel in a more defined role. Tua is going to be the X Factor of this team overall. If he becomes what we hop he is, the Dolphins will be a serious threat to go the whole way. If he doesn't improve, the Dolphins will be entering familiar territory of long term uncertainty. Noah Igbinoghene could be a star, could be a dud, and he has almost no control over his situation. If Howard stays, I doubt we see much of him. He's the long term answer, not the short. Hopefully, he's a brilliant insurance policy for our secondary.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Strengths:
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Secondary: Even with Xavien Howard's situation up in the air, I'd call our secondary a strength. We have pieces in place to step up even without him, although obviously we can't expect them to get 10 interceptions. However, the group overall is littered with talent and contributors, as well as depth. I think we can go toe-to-toe with any receiving corps and the secondary will not be why we lose.
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Offensive Guards: The only position I feel confident about on offense. Robert Hunt and Robert Kindley both had decent rookie seasons, and we added a ton of depth behind them. This group shouldn't be a liability, for the first time in what feels like forever. The consistency here will go a long way to helping the other three spots.
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Tight End: We have a very well rounded group. Gesicki is a top receiving TE in the league, and behind him we have a ton of depth them that offer enough of a skill set to receive significant snaps on most teams. Hunter Long is the least sure thing of the group but is still a highly drafted rookie. This, with the OG consistency, will go a long way to helping our OL perform despite the question marks.
Weaknesses:
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Linebackers: I don't think our group is bad by any means, but it is clearly the weak point on our defense in terms of the big 3. Jerome Baker is our only every down LB. That helps from a scheming perspective but it also means we have LBs that can be abused from a scheme perspective. We also are relying on a lot of guys to not regress.
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Center: Matt Skura vs. Michael Deiter, a battle of superstars. Skura has had a rocky past few years, while Deiter has been forgettable over that same time span. It is CLEARLY our weakest spot on an OL full of question marks.
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Running Backs: This is a group that is hotly debated. Sure, RBs have lost a ton of value over the years, but at what point is JAG going to hold you back? Myles Gaskin has showed a fair amount so far, and his value to the team will be put to the test. With inconsistency all over the offense, perhaps the group's consistent mediocrity will end up being a bastion of reliability?
Training Camp Battles to Watch: The Up-and-Comers
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RT; Liam "The Upstart" Eichenberg vs. Jesse "seasoned vet" Davis vs. DJ "retirement home" Fluker - The battle for the RT spot is wide open. Robert Hunt was drafted as a guard in 2020, had a fantastic camp and season at RT, and many expected him to keep the role due to the importance of the position vs. his success to end the season. However, the Dolphins made it pretty clear they viewed him as more valuable in the guard spot, and thus we have an open battle. Eichenberg was drafted to compete for the role as a technician, while Jesse Davis has been a seasoned veteran on the Dolphins for years, much to the dismay of many fans. DJ Fluker is also a new comer, but a seasoned NFL veteran that provides a solid floor for the position should the other two fall flat.
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Slot CB; Nik "Burnt" Needham vs. Justin "afk" Coleman vs. Jevon "Sticky like maple syrup" Holland - The slot CB isn't the most talked about secondary position for the Dolphins, but offers the most interesting discussion. Nik Needham is going into a contract year and has been mostly pleasantly surprising for an UDFA CB. He's had some great moments, and some very bad moments. He was initially penciled in at Slot due to the outside CB positions being locked and loaded. However, then we brought in Justin Coleman as a cheap vet to compete. The surprise pick, in my eyes, would be Jevon Holland. Brian Flores believes in getting the best 11 on the field, and its entirely possible he opts to have Holland take snaps at slot and bring in a safety instead. Jevon Holland is incredibly versatile, and it gives us a lot of options.
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Bottom WRs; Preston "unicorn" Williams vs. Albert "chipmunk" Wilson vs. Jakeem "the dream" Grant vs. Others - This is going to be a fun one to watch. The top 4 WRs are virtually locked in: Devante Parker, Will Fuller, Lynn Bowden Jr. and Jaylen Waddle. You can even throw in Mike Gesicki, but the back end of this group is up for grabs. Albert Wilson has been extremely dynamic but is coming off almost 2 years without playing a snap for us. Jakeem Grant is one of the best home run threats in the league, but has consistency issues. Preston Williams has an enormous amount of potential, but has not been able to turn it into production yet. He has had drop issues and injury issues both years so far. Then you have guys like Allen Hurns, Mack Hollins, and Isaiah Ford, who all offer various levels of production, versatility, and experience. This will be damn near impossible to predict.
2019 Season Prediction
Week 1 @ Patriots: MIA |
LOSS, 0-1
I see both the Patriots and Bills as split games. Yes, the Bills ended last year on the upswing and the Pats on the down, but for predictions I try to factor in more than one year predictions. Fact is, the Bills did a hard reset of their roster and re-tooled their team with tons of cap and picks this year. I think they'll be a better team than last year, and we split with them last year. I'm not going to predict a sweep either way though. I'd say the Dolphins have a better chance to sweep the Pats than the other way around, but they're close. Maybe 55:45 chance? So, victory to the home team.
Week 2 vs. Buffalo: MIA |
Win, 1-1
Similar to Pats, I don't see a sweep either way. But I'd say they are more likely to sweep us and are on the up and up, maybe a 65:35 split for them. The counter point is, a ton of their players had career years. No way to guarantee they maintain that level of play. I'd say they're definitely the favorite to take the division, but it's not enough to call a sweep yet and thus, a win for the home team.
Week 3 @ LVR: MIA |
Win, 2-1
On paper, I like the Raiders roster a lot. I think one of the Dolphins' biggest weaknesses is our run defense. We have very good DTs and solid role LBs. However, with our prevalence of nickel, dime, and lack of a game changing LB, I think we'll be a much better pass defense than run, and I think they have the chance to be a very good run offense. They improved their defense a good bit, but I can't ignore the facts. Gruden hasn't been an elite coach, their OL is completely gutted(and relies a lot of chemistry), and they've tended to make head scratching roster decisions the past few years. This will ultimately come down to if Tua is the same guy as last year or if he improves.
Week 4 vs. Colts: MIA |
Win, 3-1
This is very much a toss up, but I give the win to the home team. The Colts roster is better overall, but I like Flores more than Reich. Ultimately it'll come down to which Carson Wentz we get. MVP Wentz will steal this game, but if he's still learning the playbook / adjusting to a new team, the Phins defense will get the best of him. I will enjoy seeing Darius Leonard wreak havoc against our offense and seeing if we can adjust.
Week 5 @ Tompa Bay: MIA |
Loss, 3-2
Yeah I don't see us winning this one. Tompa Brady is a really solid team, obviously top QB year in, year out. It'd be naive to suggest we're the favorites against the defending champs, as an away team, without injuries occuring.
Week 6 @ Jacksonville: MIA |
Win, 4-2
I'll pretty much be copy-pasting my reasoning here for other teams, but essentially this is a rebuilding team. Jacksonville has a rookie QB and a lot of holes across the roster. Dolphins are a team at the end of their rebuild, looking to transition to their championship window. This is a must-win game for that.
Week 7 vs. Atlanta: MIA |
Win, 5-2
Atlanta, like Jacksonville, I see as a bit of a rebuilding team. They have a very good QB, but he doesn't have much help on the roster. Kyle Pitts can be great, but it's unlikely for him to have an impact early on. Their defense needs a drastic face lift to be good. I think Arthur Smith will get a lot out of the offense, but Flores will be looking to stifle that progress, and should slice and dice their defense.
Week 8 @ Buffalo: MIA |
LOSS, 5-3
See previous game. Buffalo is the better team going into the year, but I don't see a sweep as the likely outcome. Thus, win to the home team.
Week 9 vs. Houston: MIA |
Win, 6-3
I don't see Watson playing this year, but even if he does, he went 4-12 with an arguably better team. This will be a rough year for the Texans and the focus is more on who is running the football team than who is on it.
Week 10 vs. Baltimore: MIA |
Loss, 6-4
Baltimore traditionally has our number and Lamar Jackson is a very good QB. We have trouble with running QBs as well. Last time we played them, they absolutely thrashed us. I'll predict a win against Baltimore when we actually beat them. For now, I'm gonna go with history and suggest a win for them.
Week 11 @ NYJ: MIA |
WIN, 7-4
Like Jacksonville, rebuilding team with a rookie QB. Lots of holes. We have to win if we want to move from rebuild to competitors.
Week 12 vs. Carolina: MIA |
Win, 8-4
I like Carolina's roster overall compared to some of these predicted Ws, but they're still a step behind the Fins and don't have elite QB talent to make up the difference. I'm interested in seeing what Sam Darnold does on a new team, but I don't think he has a Josh Allen type of leap and thus, W for the Fins.
Week 13 vs. NYG: MIA |
Win, 9-4
Daniel Jones is on the hot seat. Outside of that, the Giants have very defined strengths and weaknesses. I think the Dolphins have the edge with a more well rounded roster that thrives on turnovers, something the Giants have struggled with the past couple years. Could go the other way but I think the Dolphins win on depth battles.
Week 14: Bye
Week 15 vs. NYJ: MIA |
WIN, 10-4
Rebuilding team with a rookie QB. Lots of holes. We have to win if we want to move from rebuild to competitors.
Week 16 @ New Orleans: MIA |
WIN, 11-4
If the Saints had Drew Brees, I'd call this a loss. However, I see a very similar game to the Giants: a team with very strong positions, and weak at other places, that ultimately loses due to a less well rounded roster. The big X Factor will be who their QB is, and how he performs with Kamara and Michael Thomas.
Week 17 @ Tennessee: MIA |
LOSS, 11-5
I had this as a L before the Julio trade. I have this as a definitive L after the trade. I think they've got an explosive offense that can bully our defense and take away some of Flores' magic. Their defense is their weak point and we need to see what ours can do. Our biggest hope is the Titans' rest players late in the year to get ready for a push.
Week 18 vs. New England: MIA |
Win, 12-5
Likes the Bills games and previous Pats game, close match up that I give to the home team.
Conclusion:
12-5
Tier 1 (>75% chance we lose, I.E. no chance): Week 2, 10
Tier 2(50-70% chance we win, I.E. Toss up): Weeks 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 12, 13, 16, 17, 18
Tier 3(0-30% chance we lose, I.E. traps): Weeks 6, 7, 9, 11, 15
At Buffalo and Baltimore have our numbers, I reckon. The Dolphins historically have issues with mobile QBs and last time we played the Ravens we got absolutely embarrassed. Sure, there's a chance we win either game, but both are games I need to be shown they can compete before I can acknowledge these games as toss ups.
As for the tier 3 games, most of these teams are rebuilding with the exception of Atlanta who is in a weird spot. They seem like a team that is all in, but their roster is just too flawed for me to think they have a chance yet. The Dolphins are a team with an aggressive and stout defense, and questions on offense. Atlanta's current roster make up suggests they'd be unable to stop our offense while relying on young players to have exceptional games on offense to contend with our current projected defense. I do believe they're clearly better than the other 4 games, but I just see a bad match up.
As for the rest, it's a mix of division splits and teams that look solid on paper. The most winnable game looks to be the Panthers, who are a team also in the middle of a rebuild but have a lot of pieces in place. Their QB play is the big question mark. The least winnable game is the Titans, as the Dolphins run defense is our weakness and the Titans' offense is extremely high powered. Much like Atlanta, but roles reversed, this is just a bad match up for us.
Going week by week, I see us getting 2 more wins than last year thanks to a less top-heavy schedule; resulting in a respectable 12-5. Going by my tier approach, we'd be at 10-7(split tier 2 games, win all tier 3, lose all tier 1). Anything above this would be fantastic, although going 10-7 would be slightly disappointing if we miss the playoffs again.
Final Thoughts
This is a big year for the Dolphins, and Tua specifically. Brian Flores came into Miami in the 2019 off-season. Chris Grier and Brian Flores GUTTED the roster, shedding the excess fat and creating a talent vacuum. Flores and his staff proceeded to take a team devoid of talent and go 5-11. We re-tooled the team a bit, using our plethora of draft picks and cap space to create a foundation. Flores even re-built the coaching staff, and proceeded to go 10-6(exceeding expectations both years in the process). Now, the expectation is playoffs. Some would even argue they want a playoff win to consider the season a success. It's been a long time since Miami was relevant in January, and the fans are short on patience.
The integral cog of these expectations will be Tua. He had a very mediocre rookie season, being arguably between the 2nd to 4th best rookie QB despite being a huge college success. After an off-season that began slow, causing a flurry of stories about the Dolphins replacing Tua, he needs to show improvement. He won't have Fitzmagic here to hold his hand anymore. Chris Grier and Brian Flores have gotten him a top 10 defense, a ton of receiving talent, and one of the more promising OLs in the past decade for Miami.
Things are exciting for Miami right now. We just had one of the best defenses in the league with a bunch of rookies. The team should be about as close to Flores' vision as we can reasonably expect. Unfortunately, the Buffalo Bills are hitting their stride in their rebuild. It will be at best a tough battle for the division, and hopefully, as worst, a tough battle for a wildcard spot. Miami may not be Superbowl contenders, but they need to be in that "bracket buster" territory of still being a threat on any given Sunday. After multiple close battles with multiple MVP level QBs and Superbowl contender teams, let's see if Miami can rise to the challenge or flounder in their attempts.
Shoutouts
As per usual, shoutout to /u/PlatypusOfDeath for hosting the series.
I'd also like to urge anyone to come to the bipolar dolphins subreddit, where we're going to the Superbowl after every win, and picking top 5 after every loss.
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